New Sabato ranking for GOP primary.

[Senator Cris]

First tier: Bush, Walker, Paul, Christie
Second tier: Rubio, Cruz, Kasich
Wild cards: Ryan, Huckabee, Portman, Martinez
Also-rans: Santorum, Perry

Link --> http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2016-president/

[Maxwell]

It's fascinating that Cruz is second tier and Walker is first, but otherwise this seems kinda accurate.

also, LOL no Jindal.

[Bull Moose Base]

This feels arbitrary. Bush and Walker are top-tier if they run but those are big ifs. Bush looks and sounds genuinely undecided, arguably more likely to pass than run. And everything I've read suggests Walker would defer if Ryan decided to run. Also, his re-election is up in the air and could presumably knock him out if he loses.  Huckabee or Ryan, who would also be top-tier if they run, should be ranked in a similar place but instead are grouped with Martinez (who has done nothing to suggest an interest in running) and Portman (who also hasn't done anything to suggest a run and endorsed gay marriage, which may be a dealbreaker in a GOP primary). And why is Cruz, who has led several state polls, grouped with Rubio, who hasn't shown any sign of being able to recover from immigration, and Kasich, who has serious base problems and gave a fairly convincing denial when last asked if he would run?

I would say…
First tier: no one
Second tier: Paul, Cruz
Wild cards: Bush, Walker, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee
Still has a chance: Everyone else

[Supersonic]

Is no college degree really a key disadvantage for Scott Walker?

[whanztastic]

It is arbitrary.

[Whacker77]

As much as I am in favor of a Jeb Bush candidacy, I'm surprised Larry Sabato's operation lists him as the leader of the pack.  I think Bush out classes all of those names, but the DC consensus is there's no way Bush runs.  Having said that, there has certainly been a lot of buzz about him recently.

As for the other choices, I think Scott Walker's decision is totally dependent on Bush because Paul Ryan is not running.  He has no base of support (except for the WSJ editorial page), he was a losing VP nominee, he comes from the House, and he showed no ability to drag his state along in 2012.  On top of that, he's let it be known, at least according to articles I've read, he wants Ways and Means.

Walker also ranks as a top tier choice over Cruz because Walker would almost certainly become the "establishment" choice if Bush chooses not to run.  There's no overlap between Bush or Walker voters and Cruz voters.  And just to further that point, a recent study suggested that about 40% of the Republican base is "somewhat" conservative.  The base from which Cruz or Paul would start with wouldn't be nearly as large.  That's why the "establishment" has controlled the nominating process since 1988.

[IceSpear]

Is no college degree really a key disadvantage for Scott Walker?

It is in the same sense that Ed Gillespie entering the VA Senate race was a game changer.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think these rankings look right.  Bush, Christie, Paul, and Walker are definitely the top four candidates to look at right now.  I still think Bush is more likely to run than Rubio, and Walker more likely than Ryan. 

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Walker is first, duh, since Jeb ain't running.

[Lupo]

It's fascinating that Cruz is second tier and Walker is first, but otherwise this seems kinda accurate.

also, LOL no Jindal.

Cruz is too controversial. 

[JRP1994]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-gop-presidential-update-a-new-familiar-name-at-the-top/

TIER 1:
   1) Jeb Bush
   2) Scott Walker
   3) Rand Paul
   4) Chris Christie

TIER 2:
   5) Marco Rubio
   6) Ted Cruz
   7) John Kasich

WILD CARDS:
   8 ) Paul Ryan
   9) Mike Huckabee
  10) Rob Portman
  11) Susana Martinez
 
ALSO-RANS:
  12) Rick Santorum
  13) Rick Perry

[Bull Moose Base]

I think he nailed it.

[Blue3]

Not all of those people are going to run.

And I think he overestimates Rand Paul while underestimating Ted Cruz.

Huckabee is an also-ran.

Ryan and Portman have little chance.

Kasich is a wild card, or more likely shouldn't even be included on the list.

[Suburbia]

Another wild card included should be Sen. John Thune (R-South Dakota) or Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder if the establishment does not like the choices available.