English local elections, May 2014

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Are there any surveys regarding the local elections or only the national and the EP ones?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Occasionally - very occasionally - national polls are done, but they're rubbish and attract no attention.

[YL]

Completing the Northern Mets after a bit of a gap, Tyne & Wear:

Gateshead

Currently Lab 55 LD 11.  2010: Lab 19 (including double vacancy) LD 4.  2012: Lab 18 LD 4

This is one of the handful of Met Councils which Labour have never lost control of since they were created in 1973.  There was a bit more Lib Dem strength a few years ago, but even in 2008 Labour still won more than half the wards.  There was a continuity Liberal councillor for a time, but she lost her seat in 2012.  The ward the Lib Dems won in 2012 but not 2011 was Dunston Hill & Whickham East.

Newcastle

Currently Lab 50 LD 26 Ind 1 vacant (Lab) 1.  2010: Lab 16 LD 11 (one ward had a double vacancy and elected one of each).  2012: Lab 16 LD 10 (including double vacancy) Ind 1.

This was run by the Lib Dems from 2004 to 2011, but Labour then regained control.  The Lib Dems did rather better here in 2012 than in 2011, when they only won six seats in the north of the city.  One ex-Lib Dem councillor successfully defended his seat as an Independent, with no Lib Dem opposition.  Like Sheffield, Newcastle has more in the way of middle class low deprivation areas within its boundaries than Liverpool or Manchester, which explains the greater Lib Dem resilience.

North Tyneside

Currently Lab 42 Con 12 LD 5 Ind 1 (plus Labour mayor).  2010: Lab 15 Con 3 LD 2.  2012: Lab 15 Con 4 LD 1.

Labour's current strong position is a recent development: the mayoralty has been Tory more often than not, and the Tories had the majority of councillors from 2008 to 2010.  Lib Dem strength is in Wallsend and Northumberland wards on the Newcastle border.  Current Tory strength is in the east, along the coast; when they were doing better they won some inland wards as well.

South Tyneside

Currently Lab 51 UKIP 2 Con 1 "Real Independent" 1 Ind 1.  2010: Lab 16 Con 1 Ind 1.  2012: Lab 17 Con 1.

Labour had had control here since 1979.  The UKIP councillors were both elected as Independents, and represent the same ward, Fellgate & Hedworth; one is defending his seat this year.  Then there's Cleadon & East Boldon ward, which voted Tory in 2010 and 2012 but Labour in 2011.  The Tory elected in 2010 defected to UKIP but then died last year, and the ensuing by-election was won by Labour.

Sunderland

Currently Lab 64 Con 8 Ind 3.  2010: Lab 22 Con 3.  2012: Lab 22 (including double vacancy) Con 2 Ind 2.

This is another council Labour have held since 1973.  The challenge in the late New Labour years came more from the Tories than the Lib Dems here, but again Labour never fell below half the wards.  Unlike most Met Councils it has a few seats being won by independent candidates.  Only one ward (Fulwell) has three Tory councillors.

[YL]

Survation poll for the London borough elections: Lab 42 Con 26 LD 14 UKIP 11 Green 4 Others 3

(link)

[You kip if you want to...]

Survation poll for the London borough elections: Lab 42 Con 26 LD 14 UKIP 11 Green 4 Others 3

(link)

Probably not to be trusted, but what kind've seat count would this give us?

[afleitch]

Survation poll for the London borough elections: Lab 42 Con 26 LD 14 UKIP 11 Green 4 Others 3

(link)

Probably not to be trusted, but what kind've seat count would this give us?

It would be Labour's largest vote share since 1974, the Tories lowest share ever and the worst for the Liberal Democrats since 1990.

The Tories would be down 6 points. It's worth noting that the Tory share in 2010 was their lowest since 1994. Labour would be up 9. The Lib Dems would be down 8

[stepney]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27274621

UKIP can't be racist, some of their best candidates are black.

[YL]

The Guardian has a survey of dodgy bar charts.  The Lib Dems, unsurprisingly, feature the most, but there are Tory and Labour examples too (including the hilarious Tory one from Dudley at the top of the page).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Barking and Dagenham - Some rather funny business going on. Labour swept last time, but have suffered defections left and right (to Scargill’s Socialist Labour and to UKIP/Tories). We'll see if they can hang on the seats in historically Labour territory. (my bet: no, especially the tory). UKIP are the likeliest underdogs.

Barnet - Labour politicos are hopeful for this North London cosmopolitan suburb. Historically Tory, but Labour will probably eat down their lead, following an extremely controversial series of privatisations, named “One Barnet”. Unfortunately for Labour, the party has already had a senior member defect to Tories, because due to claimed anti-Asian sentiment in the party.

Bexley - This aging, white suburb is one of UKIP's best bets. It is possible for the council to switch to NOC as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see UKIP as the second party. Labour are attempting to unroot council leader Teresa O’Neil, by, erm, setting her against three candidates named O’Neill. Points for trying Labour!

Brent - Labour won complete control of this ethnic minority heavy council in 2010 due to boosted turnout. Tories and Labour alike will attempt to squeeze the Lib Dems out of existence, which has a fair handful of councillors standing down. Labour will galvanise opposition to bedroom tax here, which is why Labour council leader Butt allowed Panorama to spotlight the effect of the tax here.

Bromley - almost full control by Tories. This huge borough is probably too sleepy to have much of an upheaval, but UKIP will probably take a hack at the Tories' majority.

Camden - Labour council here is hedging bets on opposition to HS2 and the bedroom tax. The Tories are safe in their northern ghetto, but the usual tale of post-coalition metropolitan Lib Dems applies. None of their 13 seats are safe, especially as have councillors spread across the borough. Greens may  gain, but their lone incumbent is standing down.

Croydon - This Tory-controlled working-class outer suburb is low hanging fruit for Labour. It has pretty much been a two-party race - Labour winning the north, Tories the south and a big battle for the centre. However UKIP’s strength in boroughs like this could bring it the balance of power. (UKIP are standing more candidates here then any other borough.) Croydon UKIP is dominated by the strange figure of Winston McKenzie, who has joined almost every other political party and is slightly mad.

Ealing - Currently Labour, but this borough has swung like a pendulum in recent years. Probable hold.

Enfield -

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2010/6/


The borough I spent most of my life living in is neatly bisected into the post-industrial Labour east and the Green Belt/suburban Tory west. A two horse race - no UKIP presence (one candidate was embroiled in a Twitter kerfluffle recently) and others are non-entities. Wild card is "Save Chase Farm", who are angry at the farcical treatment of the boroughs A&E/maternity departments. Probable Labour hold.

Greenwich - Labour scandal-ridden “strongman” leader is resigning, seen as bit of a bully. Their might be a bit of an opposition to the national swing from Labour to Tory - but Labour have a walloping majority and favourable national winds.

Hackney - Labour will win and mayor Pipe will be reelected. The 3 Lib Dems will be wiped out - their ward is marginal at the best of times (and this is not the best of times for Liberals, obviously). One Labour to Tory defectee is certain to go down in her heavily Labour ward, but apart from that the Tories have a safe base in the North. Hipster ward Clissold is a focus for Greens eager for a foothold.

Hammersmith and Fulham - Like most inner city boroughs, H&F is an urban patchwork of poor and rich. Unlike many such boroughs, Tories have a majority, since 2006. They are polarising force, mainly because Cameron himself highlighted the borough as a “model” of his brand of conservatism. Labour will love to grab this council (6 seats needed), but gentrification is turning this formerly Labour hotspot fairly blue. Local A&E closures are, as ever, an issue.

Haringey - Like most of North London, Haringey is extremely divided. The divide is between the East - dominated by notoriously violent Tottenham and the West - with fancy liberal hotspots Muswell Hill and Crouch End. Tories hope to make their first seats in decades at the LIb Dems expense. Labour and Greens also hope to make inroads in the West. Pity the urban Lib Dem, for dark days lay ahead. Labour can’t be shaken by the way, seeing as they remained in power after being implicated in the horrific Baby P case a while back. Dan Hodges is endorsing the Lib Dems here, though. That’ll save them. Maybe.

Harrow - Labour won in 2010, but have had a rather dramatic four years. Council leader Thaya Idaikkadar were overthrown, in what he claimed was racism. Racial bickering led to a racial schism in the council, and a Tory minority government with the support of Iddaikkadar’s allies. Labour’s struggles may make this the best bet for what on paper should be ideal turf. Tories hope to target the prosperous Asian community.

Havering - This huge conservative working class outer borough is a ripe target for UKIP - which won a mahoosive 24 point swing in a 2013 by-election and a couple of sweet defections, including the former Mayor. Labour will probably consolidate their control over ethnic minority wards. I predict NOC - possibly with a UKIP dominated anti-Tory coalition with the local Resident’s Association.

Hillingdon - From the most Eastern to the most Western borough, also Tory dominated. Here Heathrow expansion (NB not popular) weighs heavily on people’s mind. Happily for the Tories the wards most effected by expansion are also the Tories most marginal! I wonder what UKIP’s position on expansion is, anyway (does it even matter?)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hounslow - Like many such boroughs (white, old and basically in the Home Counties) the local Tories have had a few defections to the Kippers. Unlike others it has a Labour government, which seems fairly well-liked. The Tories are campaigning on lowering Parking fees, with a special card for residents and especially targeting Labour held wards.

Islington - Lib Dems are not in great condition in Blair’s fave borough. Even compared to how badly they’re doing elsewhere, they’re doing bad in the borough they used to run. It’s possible that all 11 of the Lib Dems (five of which are standing down) seats will go down to Labour - just google “Islington by-elections” to prove the extreme swing. Greens are strong on paper - they come second in every ward in the Assembly elections, but are brutally targeted by the Labour machine, who are fearful of losing to their left flank. The Tories are also making a valiant - if quixotic - stab, at winning a few scraps.

Kensington and Chelsea - It’s Kensington and Chelsea. This is an affluent and well-educated borough - probably the least promising Tory council for UKIP. Labour will grab more of the ethnic minority wards and the estates, free from Lib Dem splitters.

Kingston upon Thames - It’s bad news when bad local news coincides with bad national news and this Lib Dem run council is victim to both. The long-term leader was arrested for making child pornography - what is it about the party that attracts sexual deviants? Anyway, most of the wards are marginal and local Tories are calling for an inquiry on how much the Libs knew about the whole business. Almost certain Tory gain, which is worrying for local Lib Dem MP’s.

Lambeth - Inner city mixed borough. Left wing. Labour majority. 15 Lib Dems. Tories nowhere.
 You probably get the idea.

Lewisham - Like many inner-city London Labour dominated boroughs, the 15 Liberals are in for a lot of trouble with no real safe seats. Tories might grab a few, but large areas of the Thames may become a simple red swathe. Greens might make a stab at regaining Brockley, but that ward was last won when Labour were in dire straights. Labour have no no-go areas in this entire borough. I predict the directly elected Labour Mayor Steve Bullock will be elected on primary votes alone.

Merton - Under NOC since 2006, but narrowly won by Labour in 2006. The Labour admin seems competent (winning the title of “Best Council in the UK” last year, apparently) despite relying on indies. Tories are promising to cut council tax by 10%, but that promise was furthered by the Kippers, who want it cut by 15%. This will almost certainly be won by Labour, who dominate the east. The Tory west has been riddled with defections to independents and UKIP.

Redbridge - strong target for Labour. It has never had control  - it’s not traditional Labour ground, being practically countryside, but like most outer boroughs it's becoming more ethnic. Most of the Lib Dems are safe in stronghold local ward (The lone Lib Dem in Vallentine will go down though). Labour want to grab split controlled wards in Aldborough, Clayhall and Cranbrook, the aforementioned Lib Dem and their defector’s seats.

Richmond - Stolen from the Lib Dems by Tories in 2010, this is almost certain (local bookies say 50 to 1!) Tory hold territory. No other party is being marked as likely to win a seat (again: local booky information), despite a solitary UKIP defector.

Southwark - Labour won seats from all three competing parties last time, taking the party from Liberal control. The council have grabbed a few headlines promising free swimming pool access, but the Liberals point to their controversial (and costly) eviction of council house residents a few years back. Still they’re Liberals, in left-leaning territory, in the midst of the coalition.

Sutton

http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/resources/images/3030421.jpg?type=articleLandscape

Lib Dem activists, demoralised and largely giving up elsewhere are being bussed in to save this South West council. Labour desire to attack the Lib Dems in the north-east on account of a local incinerator, and are pretty much certain to gain St Helier apparently. Probable Liberal hold - assuming UKIP split the right-wing vote.

Tower Hamlets - This will be crazy, and not for national reasons. Mayor Lutfur Rahman, a Labour-turned-independent Bengali businessman, has brought Tower Hamlets into the national spotlight - and not for great reasons. He will be challenged by Labour’s Joe Biggs. This will be a largely racial split between the plurality Bengali community; and other ethnicities backing Biggs.

Waltham Forest - This was another Labour gain in 2010. The council attracted some ire from Eric Pickles for refusing to stop publish a freebie paper, but y’know national momentum and all that. The handful of Lib Dems are doomed.

Wandworth

http://www.wandsworthguardian.co.uk/resources/images/3025207.jpg?type=articleLandscape

A solid Tory vote (it changed voting patterns abruptly in the 70’s and never looked back). This will not be interesting.

Westminster - This is densely Tory and always has been. If you live in London, or at least picked up its freebie papers, you might know that the Evening Standard loathes this council over its parking fees - but the Standard’s kind of nutty like that. This council is next to impossible to research on google for obvious reasons, but then again what’s the point?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I might comment more later, but two things in particular need... correcting...

Hounslow is neither particularly old, nor particularly white (like, it's less white than London as a whole), and nothing like anywhere in the Home Counties... other than Slough.

And despite popular belief, only parts of Havering (notably the Harold Hill estate and South Hornchurch/Rainham) can be accurately described as working class. Most of the borough is solid (stolid?) lower middle class privately built suburbia.

There are also elections in the People's Republic of Newham, however much of a pointless formality that may be...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sorry, I confused the the H's  (mainly because I don't know much about them, and I was repeating my biased North London opinion about those places)

I always thought they were mainly upper-working class Tories. Y'know, poorer than say, Hammersmith Tories.

[joevsimp]

Havering - This huge conservative working class outer borough is a ripe target for UKIP - which won a mahoosive 24 point swing in a 2013 by-election and a couple of sweet defections, including the former Mayor. Labour will probably consolidate their control over ethnic minority wards. I predict NOC - possibly with a UKIP dominated anti-Tory coalition with the local Resident’s Association.

there are no ethnic minority wards in havering, the ones that Labour hold are the old council estates (former, as Romford is the spiritual home of Right to Buy) where the BNP were strong a few years ago and UKIP are breathing down their necks know

edit sorry, CS has already commented ( although I would say that havering is mostly Working Class Tory rather than Lower Middle, but that line's more about self identification (the word asppirational was used a lot in a VT on BBC news the other day about Havering and B+D)










[/quote]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time for some (very brief!) preview things. So, firstly, the so-called Metropolitan Boroughs. Unless otherwise noted a third of seats are up for election: this means that if there's a secure majority, control is very hard to lose in one go. Liverpool, Doncaster, Salford and North Tyneside have elected Mayors, so executive control isn't formally decided by council polls any more.

Tyne & Wear

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Gateshead, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Sunderland

All five councils have secure-to-immense Labour majorities and will continue to do so after the election.

West Yorkshire

Leeds, Bradford, Wakefield, Kirklees, Calderdale

Leeds and Wakefield both have secure Labour majorities and Calderdale will surely remain hung, but much drama is expected in Bradford and Kirklees where minority Labour administrations are attempting to become majority ones. Both local authorities have, how shall we say, bats crazy local politics. Certainly anyone attempting to predict certain wards in Bradford - unless they live in them, naturally - is a fool.

South Yorkshire

Sheffield, Barnsley, Rotherham, Doncaster

All four councils have secure Labour majorities and there will be no change. There will, however, be some media attention on Rotherham where local scandals have given UKIP something of an opening of sorts, but they won't seriously threaten control.

Merseyside

Liverpool, Wirral, St Helens, Knowsley, Sefton

All five councils have Labour majorities and some are very large indeed (like, all seats in Knowsley). The majority in the absurdity that is Sefton (Bootle with Southport?!?!) is slim, but is more likely to expand than contract.

Greater Manchester

Manchester, Salford, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Stockport, Trafford, Bolton, Wigan

Secure Labour majorities on all councils but Stockport and Trafford, though the Labour majority in Bury is inflated by a scandal driven Tory meltdown in 2012. Stockport (which includes many of Manchester's most affluent suburbs) will remain hung, while Labour will attempt to gain Trafford, one of only two Metropolitan Boroughs to have a Conservative majority. They'll have done well if they manage it.

West Midlands

Birmingham, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Solihull, Sandwell, Dudley, Walsall

There are secure Labour majorities on all councils but Solihull and Walsall (though that in Dudley rests entirely on a surprise Labour landslide in 2012). Local controversies might see Labour underperform in Birmingham, though its hard to be sure (and control is certainly not even vaguely threatened). Labour will attempt to gain a majority in Walsall and ought to... but given the incompetence of Walsall Labour, let us believe it only when and if it actually happens. The Conservative majority in Solihull looks pretty secure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What, then, of London?

Labour is all but guaranteed victories in Barking & Dagenham, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, and Waltham Forest. And, frankly, ought to win both the Mayoral and council elections in Tower Hamlets, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if matters were fycked up again.

The Tories are similarly secure in Bexley (although it must be noted that when that borough swings, it swings), Bromley, Kensington & Chelsea, Wandsworth, and Westminster. They are also probably secure in Richmond upon Thames despite the narrow majority. Hillingdon also ought to be held, but the big majority might not be quite as secure as it looks.

Conservative control is seriously under threat in Barnet (something that is entirely their own doing: a less ideologically fanatical administration would likely be safe-ish), Croydon, Hammersmith & Fulham (see Barnet) and Havering (where the Conservative group has dissolved in a spate of vicious infighting and where there is a long tradition of fragmented local politics). It is possible that all will fall, it is (just about) possible that none will.

The LibDems currently have majorities on two suburban councils: Sutton and Kingston upon Thames. The latter looks extremely vulnerable to the Tories, the former ought to be held, although large majorities there have wobbled ominously in the past.

Harrow is impossible to predict due to a serious split in the local Labour Party. I have a fear that the Tories might scrape a win via the backdoor, but that's not really based on much.

Labour will be trying for a majority in hung Merton: the borough is ludicrously socially polarised, but it isn't an entirely impossible task. Labour will also be after also hung Redbridge, and have a reasonable chance of taking it.

[YL]

South Yorkshire

Sheffield, Barnsley, Rotherham, Doncaster

All four councils have secure Labour majorities, though Doncaster (which is a basket case and has an elected Mayor) is having all-out elections on new boundaries. Expect a Labour majority in any case. There will be some media attention on Rotherham where local scandals have given UKIP something of an opening of sorts, but they won't seriously threaten control.

Actually Doncaster's all up elections are next year; for this year it's still thirds on the old boundaries.

It's impossible for Labour to lose control of Rotherham, barring defections.  Possibly certain people being defeated might be no bad thing for the party there, anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually Doncaster's all up elections are next year; for this year it's still thirds on the old boundaries.

Really? I was sure it was this year. Oh well.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Indeed.

[YL]

Press Association estimated declaration times

One thing to note is that in some places Labour had already recovered from its 2007/8/9 disasters in 2010 (in terms of seats won, anyway).  So in those places opportunities for Labour gains are fewer than in 2011 and 2012.  Examples include Leeds, Kirklees and Doncaster.  On the other hand, in places like Calderdale and Wakefield Labour still did quite badly in 2010, so there's potential for more gains there.

[Supersonic]

St Annes, Sunderland. Labour 66% in 2012, down to 48%. Quite alarming.

LAB - 48.3%
UKIP - 33.2%
CON - 14.1%
GRN - 4.35

[YL]

Four Sunderland wards are in.  All are basically safe Labour wards, and they've held all of them, but UKIP have done scarily well.

[YL]

First gain: St. Chad's ward, Sunderland: Lab gain from Con, 1180 to 1015.  Not as impressive a gain as in 2012, and another strong performance from UKIP.

[Supersonic]

UKIP performing very strongly in Rotherham, even in areas they weren't targeting. Also doing well in Labour areas of Swindon. This being reported by The Guardian.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP will poll solid percentages in most places, as they did in the County Council elections last year.

[YL]

UKIP performing very strongly in Rotherham, even in areas they weren't targeting. Also doing well in Labour areas of Swindon. This being reported by The Guardian.

BBC journalists are suggesting UKIP think they'll win three to five seats in Rotherham.  This is more or less what I expected; indeed I wouldn't have been that surprised by it being worse (and I suppose it might still be).

[YL]

More Sunderland results: Labour lost Copt Hill to an Independent, but held Hetton, where UKIP already got 43% in 2012.