English local elections, May 2014

[EPG]

The media are indeed talking about Labour. As is clear here. They are pointing out that Labour isn't doing well enough to win the next election (the areas that were polled on Thursday are Labour-friendly compared to the country as a whole) and reporting on backbenchers taking turns to tell their unfortunate leader what to do next. As for UKIP, they are having one of their best elections ever, and one of the best ever for any third party; that's at least newsworthy.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The media are indeed talking about Labour. As is clear here. They are pointing out that Labour isn't doing well enough to win the next election (the areas that were polled on Thursday are Labour-friendly compared to the country as a whole) and reporting on backbenchers taking turns to tell their unfortunate leader what to do next. As for UKIP, they are having one of their best elections ever, and one of the best ever for any third party; that's at least newsworthy.

Politicalbetting.com, seriously?

Anyway, you do understand that I was trolling a bit? You're not totally wrong but the media focus has been all UKIP UKIP UKIP while there's a lot else going on... perhaps one of the big stories of the day has been the further collapse of the Lib Dems in urban councils leaving a much larger number of councils than ever before where the opposition to Labour is purely nominal if even existent. For example, it's not too long ago that the Lib Dems controlled Liverpool city council, yesterday they lost all their seats there, now have only three remaining (out of 92) and the Greens are the main opposition now... media coverage of this? Zero.

[EPG]

The media are indeed talking about Labour. As is clear here. They are pointing out that Labour isn't doing well enough to win the next election (the areas that were polled on Thursday are Labour-friendly compared to the country as a whole) and reporting on backbenchers taking turns to tell their unfortunate leader what to do next. As for UKIP, they are having one of their best elections ever, and one of the best ever for any third party; that's at least newsworthy.

Politicalbetting.com, seriously?

Not sure what this means.

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The media did cover that. I heard it myself on the BBC. But "small oppositions to Labour replaced by tiny opposition" is not much news. It makes absolutely no difference to Liverpool, Manchester, and so on. In contrast, UKIP's rise will affect the debates on immigration, Europe and so on. I know this forum is about election statistics and results, but policies and government matter more to 99% of people who watch the news.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, plus I have no idea why Cameron's escaped any serious post-election scrutiny, despite it being pretty clear that UKIP have worryingly swiped working class Tories as a group.

The media are indeed talking about Labour. As is clear here. They are pointing out that Labour isn't doing well enough to win the next election (the areas that were polled on Thursday are Labour-friendly compared to the country as a whole) and reporting on backbenchers taking turns to tell their unfortunate leader what to do next. As for UKIP, they are having one of their best elections ever, and one of the best ever for any third party; that's at least newsworthy.

Politicalbetting.com, seriously?

Anyway, you do understand that I was trolling a bit? You're not totally wrong but the media focus has been all UKIP UKIP UKIP while there's a lot else going on... perhaps one of the big stories of the day has been the further collapse of the Lib Dems in urban councils leaving a much larger number of councils than ever before where the opposition to Labour is purely nominal if even existent. For example, it's not too long ago that the Lib Dems controlled Liverpool city council, yesterday they lost all their seats there, now have only three remaining (out of 92) and the Greens are the main opposition now... media coverage of this? Zero.

To be fair, reporting on Lib Dem collapse (though amusing) is old hat at this point. The media wants something NEW

You'd have to guess that they would hold onto their two seats in the Sutton council area, right?

I don't know, neither Sutton ward's have that big a majority. Cable and Davey are much safer IMO, despite the personality cult around the former dented. The seats in order of liklihood to fall are:

Brent (Gone)
Haringey (Feathers is also essentially gone)
Sutton and Cheam (Kingston had a tiny majority against Tories in a relatively good year)
Bermondsy (Hughes)
Carshalton (Brake)
Kingston (Davey)
Twickenham (Cable)

If the election was now? Only Davey and Cable left in London, I think.

[joevsimp]

something that I knocked up in five minutes, so no gradients or anything, but second place finishers in Manchester, most are miles behind, but a couple of the lib dems were almost close, grey is an independent in Moss Side who beat the Greens into third place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

GL: Labour's 21 out of 32 boroughs is their best performance since 1971

This is good news, but is actually less impressive than it sounds. Labour badly underperformed in local elections in London in the 1980s and 1990s for various reasons.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure what this means.

It means that the cited website does not have the best of reputations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Lib Dems had local problems there: see my Doncaster preview back on page 1.  So I don't think them losing is a surprise (NB it was their last South Yorkshire ward outside west and south-west Sheffield) but perhaps it was a surprise that Labour benefitted.

Yes; I was expecting them to lose it, but not to us. Freak gain, admittedly.

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Calderdale was a surprise, yeah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not only was Rahman elected, but his supporters ('Tower Hamlets First') have cleaned up the Bangladeshi vote and currently lead on the council with 15 seats (Labour 9, Tories 3). Not all wards yet counted. Some ward results are hilarious.

[joevsimp]

Not only was Rahman elected, but his supporters ('Tower Hamlets First') have cleaned up the Bangladeshi vote and currently lead on the council with 15 seats (Labour 9, Tories 3). Not all wards yet counted. Some ward results are hilarious.

are many of them former Respect councillers?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

are many of them former Respect councillers?

Not compared all the names, but I think some are. Quite a few are incumbent councillors at any rate.

[joevsimp]

After taking nearly twelve hours, Havering remains NOC.

Tories 22, Residents 19, UKIP 7, Independent Residents Group 6 and... Labour 1. Labour lost 4 seats and the Lib Dems their sole one remaining.

Wow what crazy schism resulted in the Residents splitting in two?

there wasn't really a split as such, the Independent residents are only active in Rainham and South Hornchurch (also known as the Mardyke estate and normally considered part of Rainham.

its led by Cllr Jeff Tucker, who owns most of the sops at the western end of the highstreet, and also includes at least one cllr from the National Liberal Party, formerly known as Third Way, formerly Harrington's mob in the Political Soldier faction of the National Front that didn't Joing with Griffin and Tyndall in the BNP

they would be perfectly happy to work with ukip, not sure about the other RA members, but they don't play nice with the tories

[Silent Hunter]

There are multiple different residents groups in Havering.

The Havering Tory group engaged in some major faction fighting; a load of incumbents got deselected, IIRC, by their chairman Osman Dervish (aged 26) and as a result, three of them defected to UKIP.

Of the eight wards in London with UKIP councillors, four are in Havering including the only one with three members. Harold Hill, a post-war council estate area, has five members there.

As I've mentioned, Havering is spiritually Essex; the borough was one of those formerly in the county until 1965 and the locals tend to self ID as from that area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has Tower Hamlets finished counting yet? My God what a fiasco.

[joevsimp]

no, still on the numbers mentioned above, I'd expect there to be two more tories elected but don't know what the ratio of Labour to THF will be, and Blackwall and Cubbit town was postponed, death of a candidate i assume but it doesn't say on the site

[Silent Hunter]

no, still on the numbers mentioned above, I'd expect there to be two more tories elected but don't know what the ratio of Labour to THF will be, and Blackwall and Cubbit town was postponed, death of a candidate i assume but it doesn't say on the site

Yes, one of the THF candidates died.

[afleitch]

Rallings and Thrasher PNS out. Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories which is not bad a year out.

[ChrisDR68]

Rallings and Thrasher PNS out. Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories which is not bad a year out.

Not bad for who and why?

[Serenity Now]

Rallings and Thrasher PNS out. Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories which is not bad a year out.

Not bad for who and why?

I'd say he certainly meant not bad for the conservatives - in the last decade or so the opposition have won every set of local elections before the general, and by much larger margins, only for the government to be re-elected at the general.  The Conservatives won the 2000 and 2004 locals, for example.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I bring news from Tower Hamlets!

It now stands: Labour 18, THF 18, Con 4

Yet it is not over. A recount is not done in Bromley South (one seat apparently secure for Labour, the second close between Labour and THF) and a postponed poll in three seat Blackwall & Cubitt Town.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Bromley South went to three recounts.  So far.  Yes, it is still not over; we will be back on Tuesday for more counting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick little Donny map:

[You kip if you want to...]

Quick little Donny map:

EdM safe, no matter what Nigel's trying to stir up in Donny.

[YL]

If there's a target seat in Donny it's Don Valley, not North.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And the one seat they did actually win is in Donny Central.