LA-06: It's happening! Edwards leads!

[Miles]

Article.

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Claitor and Graves both leads him 52-47 in a runoff. Dietzel wasn't polled for the runoff.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting. What's Edwards' appeal to Pubs? Geography, infamy, something else? That Pub runoff slot is just as tight as you said it'd be.

[free my dawg]

[DrScholl]

Get it, boy

[Miles]

A bit of this is probably name rec.

Edwards likely has a monopoly in the bayou parishes; once Graves gets more visible, that will probably change.

If I'm Claitor, I'd  be trying to talk Lieberman out. With Edwards in, Lieberman becomes irrelevant anyway. He was also running as a "proud conservative" Democrat...most of his support would probably be split between Edwards and Claitor.

FWIW, the poll was only 17% black. The district is 23% overall and Edwards should help in turning them out.

'Just got a fundraising email from the Dietzel camp. This is the part they're touting, the reason why Dietzel wasn't tested in a runoff:

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Fair enough. People around Baton Rouge should certainly recognize the Dietzel name though.  

[Lief 🗽]

Wonderful news!

[DINGO Joe]

A bit of this is probably name rec.

Edwards likely has a monopoly in the bayou parishes; once Graves gets more visible, that will probably change.

If I'm Claitor, I'd  be trying to talk Lieberman out. With Edwards in, Lieberman becomes irrelevant anyway. He was also running as a "proud conservative" Democrat...most of his support would probably be split between Edwards and Claitor.

FWIW, the poll was only 17% black. The district is 23% overall and Edwards should help in turning them out.

'Just got a fundraising email from the Dietzel camp. This is the part they're touting, the reason why Dietzel wasn't tested in a runoff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fair enough. People around Baton Rouge should certainly recognize the Dietzel name though.  

People probably thought he was the Paul Dietzel and not his grandson.

[RogueBeaver]

Roemer's advice for his fellow Pubs.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

lolololol

[Miles]

FWIW, Dietzel also has a poll. He leads Edwards 43-34 and Claitor 18-17.

[Joshgreen]

Edwards is in a strong position to deliver a good thrashing.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Edwards exchange support with Claitor as well?

[windjammer]

My god. Maybe Duke should run for the LA-06 seat too?

[Miles]

My god. Maybe Duke should run for the LA-06 seat too?

One of the dunderheaded reporters at the press conference actually asked him that.

"So are you gonna try to get David Duke to run too so that you'll win?"

Will Edwards exchange support with Claitor as well?

Yes. Before this, Calitor was in a position to do well with blacks in Baton Rouge. Virtually the entire black vote will go to Edwards now. OTOH, Claitor's base of country club Republicans in south Baton Rouge won't be tempted by Edwards.

[LeBron]

From what it seems, it might be best if Anderson and Lieberman just dropped out to increase Edward's chances of breaking over 50% because that will be the only way Edwards could win here is in the primary. So if Edwards wins here and Ratcliffe beats Hall in the primary, Edwards would be the only WWII veteran in Congress and could surpass Hall as the oldest serving, incumbent member of the House of Representatives if Edwards ran again in 2016, so a lot of historical things at stake. Nonetheless, even if he does win, the seat wouldn't stay Democratic for long given Edwards would want to retire at some point.

This would be really funny though if Cassidy not only loses to Landrieu, but the Republican stronghold seat he was forced to vacate also fell to a former convicted felon and Democrat. Edwards has a ceiling and he'll need high turnout from Baton Rouge with more focus on the issues than anything else in Edwards personal life. He's doing a lot better here than I thought he would have, though he has the benefit of high name ID and I saw him on Chuck Todd the other day defending his chances for there being just as many registered Republicans as registered Democrats, talking greatly of both state parties, shockingly having a Republican wife, says the convictions came under Buddy Roemer and had nothing to do with it, and would have supported Obama, but supports the pipeline and against Obamacare, so he's wisely taking a conservative approach in this district. It probably tilts-leans Republican for now.

[windjammer]

At least he will help Mary