Ireland by-elections, 2014
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2014, 10:31:37 AM »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/gabrielle-mcfadden-confirms-by-election-run-1.1767216
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2014, 11:08:45 AM »


SURPRISE!
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2014, 08:09:47 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2014, 08:24:10 PM by ObserverIE »

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU
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MaxQue
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« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2014, 09:53:58 PM »


In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2014, 10:16:08 PM »


Where did you get this?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #30 on: April 19, 2014, 10:31:13 PM »


It's the results of the Longford part of Longford-Westmeath.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #31 on: April 19, 2014, 10:39:16 PM »


It's the results of the Longford part of Longford-Westmeath.

Go down to page 20.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #32 on: April 19, 2014, 11:26:00 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2014, 03:04:35 AM by MaxQue »


Thanks.

To summarise again, in Weatmarth, FG won Athlone, Coole and Kilbeggan EAs. They won all the districts in Athlone.
Labour won:
In Coole EA: Taghmon, Raharney and Killucan.
In Kilbeggan EA: Loughnavalley, Castletown, Rochfortbridge, Ballynagore, Dalystown, and Kilbeggan.

Mullingar West and Mullingar East EAs were won by Labour.
FG won:
In Mullingar East: Coralstown, Curraghmore and Mullingar East Urban 1.
In Mullingar West: Rathowen and Belvedere. A tie with Labour in Mullingar West Urban 4.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #33 on: April 20, 2014, 06:02:18 AM »


Longford Leader and Westmeath Examiner.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #34 on: April 20, 2014, 06:04:05 AM »
« Edited: April 20, 2014, 06:08:48 AM by ObserverIE »


It's the results of the Longford part of Longford-Westmeath.

It's easier to read if you download it and open in Excel or Google Sheets.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #35 on: April 20, 2014, 06:13:33 AM »
« Edited: April 20, 2014, 03:16:50 PM by ObserverIE »


Thanks.

To summarise again, in Weatmarth, FG won Athlone, Coole and Kilbeggan EAs. They won all the districts in Athlone.

Moran, an ex-FF member (until the selection convention) who ran as an independent, won a couple of polling districts in Athlone East Urban and a couple of neighbouring districts (Coosan, Creggan) which are Athlone suburbia.

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In the bits of Coole that are in Longford-Westmeath, Labour won the south (nearest Mullingar) and FG won the north. Similarly in Kilbeggan, Labour won the areas nearer to Mullingar than to Athlone.

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EPG
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« Reply #36 on: April 21, 2014, 01:02:46 PM »


In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #37 on: April 21, 2014, 03:26:51 PM »


In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.

Mae Sexton has had the sort of career trajectory only a TD could have.
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EPG
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« Reply #38 on: April 21, 2014, 03:34:07 PM »

I realise now that my choice of language was poor. Longford town isn't very rural, though Sexton's electoral base is more the rural outskirts rather than the estates of resettled Dublin council tenants; I should have said "areas of Ireland outside major cities" tend to overlook party affiliation.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #39 on: April 21, 2014, 03:35:22 PM »

Provincial? In Australia you'd say 'regional'.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #40 on: April 21, 2014, 03:44:38 PM »

I realise now that my choice of language was poor. Longford town isn't very rural, though Sexton's electoral base is more the rural outskirts rather than the estates of resettled Dublin council tenants; I should have said "areas of Ireland outside major cities" tend to overlook party affiliation.

To a large degree it's "areas of Ireland outside Dublin" but I'm just repeating what you said.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #41 on: April 21, 2014, 03:54:06 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2014, 04:06:20 PM by ObserverIE »

I realise now that my choice of language was poor. Longford town isn't very rural, though Sexton's electoral base is more the rural outskirts rather than the estates of resettled Dublin council tenants; I should have said "areas of Ireland outside major cities" tend to overlook party affiliation.

Erm, which estates of resettled Dublin council tenants would those be?

Glack and "Longford Rural" are the eastern and western fringes of Longford town beyond the official town boundaries (and Glack, BTW, is no longer in "Glack", having been moved inside the town). Sexton lives in the Demesne (much less posh than it sounds) which would be in Longford Urban North. Longford Urban Central is the bulk of the town including the council estates (and Longford has one or two very deprived council estates).

Sexton's vote was strongest in Longford town and its immediate surrounds and petered out the further you went from the town (her lowest votes in Longford were in two rural booths on the Cavan border where the Labour vote was less than 10% - and where FF held up relatively well).
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #42 on: April 21, 2014, 03:57:05 PM »


In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.

Mae Sexton has had the sort of career trajectory only a TD could have.

She's not actually moved that much if at all - she's just had different party labels slapped on her at different times (Labour had already been wooing her in the mid 90s before the PDs intervened).
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EPG
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« Reply #43 on: April 21, 2014, 04:01:07 PM »

She began as an Independent, the PDs just added her to their ticket as they added other independents across the country, and she was only in Labour for the blink of an eye.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #44 on: April 21, 2014, 04:08:01 PM »

Which in turn is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation can determine party recruitment in Ireland
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #45 on: April 21, 2014, 04:09:53 PM »


In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.

Mae Sexton has had the sort of career trajectory only a TD could have.

She's not actually moved that much if at all - she's just had different party labels slapped on her at different times (Labour had already been wooing her in the mid 90s before the PDs intervened).

Exactly.

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #46 on: April 21, 2014, 04:13:20 PM »

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #47 on: April 21, 2014, 04:21:46 PM »

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.

I believe (I don't have the data on me) that there was at least by 2002 a surprising strong tendency for transfers of one party to go to the other. And yes, they would have been mostly around here but then again by 2002 the PDs as a party organization were essentially restricted to around here and the O'Malley legacy vote in Limerick.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #48 on: April 21, 2014, 04:33:56 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2014, 04:35:40 PM by ObserverIE »

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.

I believe (I don't have the data on me) that there was at least by 2002 a surprising strong tendency for transfers of one party to go to the other. And yes, they would have been mostly around here but then again by 2002 the PDs as a party organization were essentially restricted to around here and the O'Malley legacy vote in Limerick.

Plus the Molloy legacy vote in Galway (which has outlasted everything else).

And who can forget the 2007 election, where Labour promised more and bigger income tax cuts than everyone else, and the PDs promised to increase the old-age pension to €300 and abolish stamp duty "because we don't need the money" ((c) M. McDowell)?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #49 on: April 21, 2014, 04:42:10 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2014, 04:45:07 PM by Tetro Kornbluth »

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.

I believe (I don't have the data on me) that there was at least by 2002 a surprising strong tendency for transfers of one party to go to the other. And yes, they would have been mostly around here but then again by 2002 the PDs as a party organization were essentially restricted to around here and the O'Malley legacy vote in Limerick.

Plus the Molloy legacy vote in Galway (which has outlasted everything else).

And who can forget the 2007 election, where Labour promised more and bigger income tax cuts than everyone else, and the PDs promised to increase the old-age pension to €300 and abolish stamp duty "because we don't need the money" ((c) M. McDowell)?

Labour's 2007 campaign was perhaps the most cringeworthy campaign by a political party* in modern Irish political history although I'm aware that there's great competition for the title.

(* - speaking of Stamp duty who can forget the blatant boosterism of the Sindo's campaign to abolish it during the 2007 campaign? Thinking about it for a minute makes me glad for a moment that the bubble popped as ingloriously as it did).
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