Ireland by-elections, 2014

[ObserverIE]

Labour's 2007 campaign was perhaps the most cringeworthy campaign by a political party* in modern Irish political history although I'm aware that there's great competition for the title.

(* - speaking of Stamp duty who can forget the blatant boosterism of the Sindo's campaign to abolish it during the 2007 campaign? Thinking about it for a minute makes me glad for a moment that the bubble popped as ingloriously as it did).

No, I think FG's 2002 "compensate taxi drivers and Eircom shareholders" campaign takes that particular crown, and even FG's 2007 "Sign The Contract!!!" effort runs it close. But to quote the 2007 Labour leader, "isn't that the kind of thing that you tend to say during elections?".

It does make it easier to understand how FF won three successive elections when that was the opposition.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Labour's 2007 campaign was perhaps the most cringeworthy campaign by a political party* in modern Irish political history although I'm aware that there's great competition for the title.

(* - speaking of Stamp duty who can forget the blatant boosterism of the Sindo's campaign to abolish it during the 2007 campaign? Thinking about it for a minute makes me glad for a moment that the bubble popped as ingloriously as it did).

No, I think FG's 2002 "compensate taxi drivers and Eircom shareholders" campaign takes that particular crown, and even FG's 2007 "Sign The Contract!!!" effort runs it close. But to quote the 2007 Labour leader, "isn't that the kind of thing that you tend to say during elections?".

It does make it easier to understand how FF won three successive elections when that was the opposition.

Oh god.... I had forgotten about that. But still though:

[ObserverIE]

But still though:

At least they can say they inspired Pharrell...

I see your 2007 and raise you:

[Tetro Kornbluth]

But still though:

At least they can say they inspired Pharrell...

I see your 2007 and raise you:

They should have run on the Celtic Snail.

[ObserverIE]

Getting back to the by-elections, this week's edition of the local chip-wrapper mentions two possible Longford-based candidates for Fianna Fáil:

• Pat O'Rourke, a former president of the ICMSA (the second-largest farmers' organisation), who has unsuccessfully sought a nomination for the European Parliament elections in 2009 and 2014, and
• Philip Reynolds, the son of the former Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Albert Reynolds.

This, of course, assumes that none of the county councillors or prospective county councillors have other ideas.

O'Rourke strikes me as being "meh" in terms of appeal, but Reynolds might be more interesting. His father's reputation has improved with time (especially given whom he followed and preceded as Fianna Fáil leaders) and it's not as if we in Longford are blessed with our current representation.

Updated: More here.

[ObserverIE]

News from Dublin West (although it is the Denis O'Brien Daily Indo).

[ObserverIE]

Fianna Fáil HQ have decreed that the candidate for Longford-Westmeath must come from the Athlone area. In effect, this means that the latest member of the O'Rourke dysentery dynasty will be anointed as candidate tomorrow night. Longford FFers are notably unhappy.

In Fine Gael, Peter Burke, the unsuccessful Mullingar-based candidate at the last election (who outpolled McFadden on first preferences but was overhauled on transfers) is talking about seeking the nomination, but is unlikely to be successful.

For Labour, the likely candidate is Denis Leonard, a councillor from Kinnegad in the far south-east of the constituency.

Paul Hogan, an Athlone councillor and the candidate last time, will run for Sinn Féin.

==============

In Dublin West, David McGuinness and Ruth Coppinger, who were respectively the FF and Socialist Party candidates in the 2011 by-election, have both been selected to fight the seat a second time.

In winning the nomination, McGuinness defeated Anita Lenihan, sister of the former finance minister and TD Brian Lenihan, niece of the former Longford-Westmeath Fianna Fáil TD Mary "Mammy" O'Rourke, and first cousin of the soon-to-be-anointed Longford-Westmeath by-election candidate Aengus O'Rourke.

[Јas]

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[ObserverIE]

News From The Sticks:

Son of Mammy duly anointed as FF candidate last night without opposition after two other candidates were locked in a cupboard by Mammy withdrew.

Deathbed Requestee due to be anointed by Fine Gael without opposition after Burke withdraws.

Rumour that Labour (who took 15,000 votes in 2011) may decide not to run a candidate in order to concentrate on trying to hold their county council seats in Westmeath. Even I find it difficult to believe they'd be that defeatist.

[Oakvale]

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh LOL

[ObserverIE]

(Mammy out of sight in role as back-seat driver)

As an aside, this was the first preference vote in Athlone urban area in 2011 (the appeal of the O'Rourke name in Athlone supposedly being the point of running Son of Mammy as candidate):

FG 2,025 (of which McFadden took 1,902)
Moran (ex-FF) 1,760
FF 877 (of which Mammy took 809)
SF 823
Lab 560
Green 27
Other independents 104

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please?

[ObserverIE]

Please?

If you insist...



(That'll teach him...)

[ObserverIE]

Labour to run paper candidate Trinity College student in Longford-Westmeath by-election.

[doktorb]

Writs moved

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2014050100020?opendocument#S05400

[EPG]

The Irish Times reports that a prospective Labour candidate pulled out of the Longford-Westmeath by-election. It doesn't refer to the student Ennis; I think it could be an unnamed predecessor to him. The Westmeath Examiner says he will be confirmed on Monday. All credit to him for taking on an unpopular berth.

[ObserverIE]

The Irish Times reports that a prospective Labour candidate pulled out of the Longford-Westmeath by-election. It doesn't refer to the student Ennis; I think it could be an unnamed predecessor to him. The Westmeath Examiner says he will be confirmed on Monday. All credit to him for taking on an unpopular berth.

Labour has named its chairperson, Loraine(sic) Mulligan, as candidate for the seat in Dublin West. She has no known connection with the constituency, being a native of Longford and living in Dublin Central (Phibsborough), but apparently none of the local councillors or activists were willing to accept the chalice.

Perhaps she could do a swap with the Trinity undergraduate: she would be contesting a constituency that she had some connection with and he could save on the travelling expenses and avoid disruption to his exams.

It's only a matter of time before Labour resort to the press gang as a means of candidate recruitment.

[EPG]

They aren't going to win either seat, but to be fair, it would be unsurprising in... practically any other European country, I think, for a party chairwoman to be a candidate in a constituency that wasn't her home. It's only in Ireland that we demand Local Man For Local People Locally everywhere, and we can hardly say that attitude has helped us, can we?

[ObserverIE]

It would be surprising in most European countries for the second-largest party to be scrabbling around looking for anyone willing to stand in a by-election in two constituencies, in one of which it was the largest party in the previous election, and in the other where it was a good second with 15,000 votes.

I think there was a bit more vitality even in Fianna Fáil during the run-up to 2011.

[EPG]

You are right. Fianna Fáil had the opposite problem to Labour's problem - too many people wanted to run relative to the party's prospects. Those Fianna Fáil TDs had nothing to lose by running in 2011 - other than public opprobrium on the canvass for destroying the Irish economy/sovereignty/whatever - whereas Labour councillors could lose their seats by running in the no-hope by-election. It would be foolish to run a councillor in their circumstances - whereas if you were a real no-hoper or a cert for a seat, you wouldn't mind taking time out to increase your profile.

[Citizen Hats]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

If shapefiles exist somewhere, I would be happy to map this

[EPG]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

If shapefiles exist somewhere, I would be happy to map this

Unfortunately, boxes aren't the same as electoral divisions, which are indeed available in an easily-mappable format from the Central Statistics Office. However, there is usually a close relationship between the two. I'll see if I can generate a "mapping" for you (if you'll pardon the pun).

-

I've checked. As you can see from the polling scheme at this link, the electoral divisions in the Longford part of this constituency are very much split across polling districts. Westmeath is similar. It is beyond my local knowledge of the area to do this mapping. Apologies.

[EPG]

Here are the aggregate votes by Local Electoral Area. So many parties are green. I wish someone would go for shocking pink, or Mullenesque clerical purple.

Bannon, Burke, McFadden: Fine Gael
Hogan: Sinn Féin
Kelly, O'Rourke, Troy: Fianna Fáil
Moran: non-party, ex-FF
Penrose, Sexton: Labour

Boland (non-party) got just over 2% in his home area. Nobody else got over 1% in any area.

[ObserverIE]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

If shapefiles exist somewhere, I would be happy to map this

Unfortunately, boxes aren't the same as electoral divisions, which are indeed available in an easily-mappable format from the Central Statistics Office. However, there is usually a close relationship between the two. I'll see if I can generate a "mapping" for you (if you'll pardon the pun).

-

I've checked. As you can see from the polling scheme at this link, the electoral divisions in the Longford part of this constituency are very much split across polling districts. Westmeath is similar. It is beyond my local knowledge of the area to do this mapping. Apologies.

Longford polling districts tend to cross EDs almost at random (but then, being a native of the place, the EDs themselves are fairly random and often tend not to display much similarity to real-life communications patterns). If you IM me, I'll see what I can help you out with.

If I get the chance (probably not this coming week but probably the week after), I'll check the 2011 electoral register for Westmeath to see how EDs are split between polling districts.

Longford polling scheme (2011)

Westmeath polling scheme (2011)