Ireland by-elections, 2014

[ObserverIE]

133/136 from Roscommon-South Leitrim:

[ObserverIE]

Dublin South West, 1st count

King (SF) 7288 (30.34%)
Murphy (SP t/a AAA) 6540 (27.22%)
McMahon (Ind FG) 2142 (8.92%)
Keane (FG) 2110 (8.78%)
Lahart (FF) 2077 (8.65%)
Kearns (Lab) 2043 (8.50%)
Burke (Ind) 681 (2.83%)
Coules (SWP t/a PBP) 530 (2.21%)
Duffy (GP) 447 (1.86%)
Rochford (Ind) 92 (0.38%)
O'Keeffe (Ind) 74 (0.31%)

[YL]

On count 2 (after the elimination of the two Independents with double figure votes) King gained 16 votes and Murphy 39.

... and on count 3, after the elimination of the Green, King gained 36 and Murphy 43.  Top two now King (SF) 7340, Murphy (AAA) 6622.

... and on count 4, after the elimination of the People Before Profit candidate, King gained 108 and Murphy 268.  Top two now King (SF) 7448, Murphy (AAA) 6890.

... and on count 5, after the elimination of Burke (Ind), King gained 132 and Murphy 189.  Top two now King (SF) 7580, Murphy (AAA) 7079.  Kearns (Lab) overtook Lahart (FF) earlier so the latter is next to go.  There are just over 9000 votes between the candidates other than the top two.

[YL]

First count, Roscommon-South Leitrim

Connaughton (FF) 7334
Fitzmaurice (Ind) 6220
Kenny (SF) 5906
Hopkins (FG) 5593
McDermott (Ind) 2944
Kelly (Lab) 2037
Corcoran (Ind) 1262
Crosby (Ind) 1030
Guckian (Ind) 902
O'Boyle (Ind) 82

[YL]

Count 6, Dublin SW

King (SF) 7828
Murphy (AAA) 7436
McMahon (Ind) 3049
Keane (FG) 2575
Kearns (Lab) 2492 - to be eliminated

So the gap has closed from 748 on the first count to 392 on the sixth.

Count 7

King (SF) 8017
Murphy (AAA) 7726
Keane (FG) 3857
McMahon (Ind) 3416

Gap now 291.  Both Keane and McMahon will now be eliminated, so the next count will be the final one.  Given the general trend for Murphy to catch up and the number of votes to be transferred I'd expect him to do it.

[ObserverIE]

As I said earlier, the FG-voting matrons of Templeogue will hold their noses and transfer to the privately-educated middle-class Trotskyist ahead of the dreadful working-class Shinner.

(Apologies for my absence, RL called me away to a football match.)

Roscommon-South Leitrim, count 2:

Connaughton (FF) 7502
Fitzmaurice (Ind) 6371
Kenny (SF) 6184
Hopkins (FG) 5742
McDermott (Ind HAC) 3018
Kelly (Lab) 2060
Corcoran (Ind FG) 1305
Crosby (Ind FF) 1063

Count 3:

Connaughton (FF) 7652
Fitzmaurice (Ind) 6625
Kenny (SF) 6283
Hopkins (FG) 5864
McDermott (Ind HAC) 3187
Kelly (Lab) 2090
Corcoran (Ind FG) 1483

[ObserverIE]

The market for sub-Freemanish tax protest stuff amounted to 92 in Dublin South West and 82 in Roscommon-South Leitrim this time.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And in the indirect Seanad by-election, indie Gerard Craughwell has won on transfers, beating Fine Gael's John McNulty. McNulty had some controversy and asked TD's not to vote for him, but now the government has lost its majority in the upper house.

[ObserverIE]

Roscommon-South Leitrim, count 4:

Connaughton (FF) 7846
Fitzmaurice (Ind) 7075
Kenny (SF) 6447
Hopkins (FG) 6075
McDermott (Ind HAC) 3468
Kelly (Lab) 2144

McDermott and Kelly eliminated

[ObserverIE]

McNulty had some controversy and asked TD's not to vote for him

That is a bit of an understatement. FG spent the last two weeks making idiots of themselves.

[ObserverIE]

Dublin South West, final count

Murphy (SP t/a AAA) 9565
King (SF) 8999

Full spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yw1Ig_OnWI5d3cAOtjtmFV86cm_i4wMO5S11nix_no4/edit#gid=840595271.

[Oakvale]

[ObserverIE]

Roscommon-South Leitrim, count 5:

Fitzmaurice (Ind) 9211
Connaughton (FF) 8863
Hopkins (FG) 7312
Kenny (SF) 7022

Kenny eliminated

Mícheál Lehane ‏@MichealLehane

Strange fact of the day. New TD Paul Murphy's uncle is Fintan J Murphy the returning officer here in #rsl14 @rtenews

[ObserverIE]

Roscommon-South Leitrim, count 6:

Fitzmaurice (Ind) 11722
Connaughton (FF) 10083
Hopkins (FG) 8476

Hopkins eliminated

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

[ObserverIE]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

Seven and four if you include Séamus Healy.

FGers know on which side their bread is buttered, and which set of insurrectionists are most likely to implode into a mess of warring factions.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

Seven and four if you include Séamus Healy.

FGers know on which side their bread is buttered, and which set of insurrectionists are most likely to implode into a mess of warring factions.

I was thinking of including Healy, but I don't think he's a trot so much as associates with them.

On the other side, there is John Halligan who as an ex-member of the WP was (is?) a tankie.

[ObserverIE]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

Seven and four if you include Séamus Healy.

FGers know on which side their bread is buttered, and which set of insurrectionists are most likely to implode into a mess of warring factions.

I was thinking of including Healy, but I don't think he's a trot so much as associates with them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_for_a_Workers%27_Republic

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[Oakvale]

[ObserverIE]

Roscommon-South Leitrim, count 7:

Fitzmaurice (Ind) 14881
Connaughton (FF) 12050

[EPG]

Water obsessives beat fake radicals in Dublin South-West.
Roscommon likes turf.

As I said earlier, the FG-voting matrons of Templeogue will hold their noses and transfer to the privately-educated middle-class Trotskyist ahead of the dreadful working-class Shinner.

The Socialist Party has strengths in by-elections Sinn Féin doesn't have:
- it's a much more irresponsible party able to promise even more left-wing, more protesty stuff than Sinn Féin, because they genuinely don't care about government and everyone knows it;
- it has been identified with anti-water charge politics since its pre-history in the Joe Higgins by-election campaign of 1995, now fighting a by-election in the month that water charges were finally introduced to Dublin (and non-farmers elsewhere in the country; farmers have been paying for years);
- their party is almost entirely urban, almost entirely Dublin-based in fact, and wasn't trying to win two by-elections on one day;

It's not a class issue, as the Paul Murphy vote suggests, so much as SF's being a more polarising party than the other parties in Ireland. If you're not sympathetic to either SF or SP, there are a lot more obvious reasons to transfer to the latter, like the ever-worsening record of Gerry Adams. It will matter less at a general election when there are multiple seats to be filled and transfers matter a lot less. But there are 5 seats in the new constituency and the Socialists could still win one, whereas Sinn Féin now appear quite likely to win two, not one or three.

[EPG]

Hogan resignation now announced. At this late stage, it will be a 2015 by-election.