States without big counties

[ElectionsGuy]

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia:

Just for fun...

2012 President:

Romney (R): 2,583,967 (51.2%)
Obama (D): 2,401,468 (47.5%)

2012 Senate:

Casey (D): 2,456,478 (49.4%)
Smith (R): 2,424,671 (48.8%)

2010 Senate:

Toomey (R): 1,960,949 (55.2%)
Sestak (D): 1,590,735 (44.8%)

2010 Governor:

Corbett (R): 2,100,411 (58.9%)
Onorato (D): 1,464,357 (41.1%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 2,680,383 (50.6%)
McCain (R): 2,538,664 (47.9%)

2006 Senate:

Casey (D): 2,035,927 (55.7%)
Santorum (R): 1,617,326 (44.2%)

2006 Governor:

Rendell (D): 2,087,178 (56.9%)
Swann (R): 1,576,633 (43.0%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 2,663,748 (52.3%)
Kerry (D): 2,395,890 (47.0%)

2004 Senate:

Specter (R): 2,743,158 (55.8%)
Hoeffel (D): 1,882,225 (38.3%)

Overall Philadelphia seems to move the overall result 4 points to the left, or 8 points in margin of victory terms. So it would help republicans in close elections but it really doesn't do as much as some people think it does. Maybe I'll do this with Cook County, IL too sometime.

[Sol]

IIRC, Illinois without Cook votes like Indiana.

[old timey villain]

That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.

[old timey villain]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

[ElectionsGuy]

That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.

Cook is definitely the most influential in terms of swinging the vote. Illinois votes...

Romney: 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama: 1,530,975 (47.4%)

without Cook County. But that's because it holds 40% of the population. Not only is the county itself huge (land area), but its a huge concentration of people. I think only Anchorage AK, Honolulu HI, Maricopa AZ, and Clark NV are the only other counties that hold a bigger % of people of their respective states than Cook of IL. 49.3% of Obama's votes in Illinois come out of Cook County.

[ElectionsGuy]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

She still wins pretty easily...

McCaskill: 1,371,125 (53.1%)
Akin: 1,050,774 (40.7%)

But only by 12. She won by 16, 55-39. St. Louis only makes up 5% of the population so its not nearly as influential as many other counties. In fact, if you remove St. Louis County (the suburban county) and Jackson County (Kansas City) McCaskill still wins. Todd Akin was incredibly pathetic, and deserved that kind of loss.

[muon2]

That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.

Cook is definitely the most influential in terms of swinging the vote. Illinois votes...

Romney: 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama: 1,530,975 (47.4%)

without Cook County. But that's because it holds 40% of the population. Not only is the county itself huge (land area), but its a huge concentration of people. I think only Anchorage AK, Honolulu HI, Maricopa AZ, and Clark NV are the only other counties that hold a bigger % of people of their respective states than Cook of IL. 49.3% of Obama's votes in Illinois come out of Cook County.

Most Illinoisans have a hard time grasping this, and how unusual it is to have 40% of the population in one county, 70% of the population within 30 miles of Chicago, and yet it takes 6 hours to drive on the interstate from Chicago to Cairo, IL. Chicagoans are usually surprised to learn that Springfield is only halfway down the state. Yet the total population outside of Chicagoland is comparable to KY, so it's far more significant than the total in a state like AZ or NV.

[DC Al Fine]

ElectionsGuy, did your Philly totals include the suburbs or just Philadelphia county?

[ElectionsGuy]

ElectionsGuy, did your Philly totals include the suburbs or just Philadelphia county?

Just Philadelphia County, which is the city of Philadelphia.

[old timey villain]

ElectionsGuy, did your Philly totals include the suburbs or just Philadelphia county?

Just Philadelphia County, which is the city of Philadelphia.

Might be cool to look at Delaware county as well, since it's kind of an urban/suburban extension of Philadelphia. I'm thinking of calculating GA results without Fulton and Dekalb counties, since they too make up the urban core.

[IceSpear]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

She still wins pretty easily...

McCaskill: 1,371,125 (53.1%)
Akin: 1,050,774 (40.7%)

But only by 12. She won by 16, 55-39. St. Louis only makes up 5% of the population so its not nearly as influential as many other counties. In fact, if you remove St. Louis County (the suburban county) and Jackson County (Kansas City) McCaskill still wins. Todd Akin was incredibly pathetic, and deserved that kind of loss.

Did he lose his own district?

[ElectionsGuy]

If anyone could figure out whether Claire McCaskill still won in 2012 without St. Louis I'd be much obliged

She still wins pretty easily...

McCaskill: 1,371,125 (53.1%)
Akin: 1,050,774 (40.7%)

But only by 12. She won by 16, 55-39. St. Louis only makes up 5% of the population so its not nearly as influential as many other counties. In fact, if you remove St. Louis County (the suburban county) and Jackson County (Kansas City) McCaskill still wins. Todd Akin was incredibly pathetic, and deserved that kind of loss.

Did he lose his own district?

Its sketchy, because his district contained the most republican parts of St. Louis county (parts that are even more conservative than St. Charles County on average), but odds are that he did probably lose his old MO-2.

I can tell you he lost the new MO-2. As well as probably losing MO-3, MO-4, and MO-6 narrowly, and probably narrowly winning MO-7. The only one he probably got a clear win in is MO-8, the solidly republican southwest part of the state. But then again I'm guessing comparing the county election map, the district map, and the Romney/Obama numbers for those districts (on average Akin ran 15 points behind Romney).

[Miles]

LA without Orleans Parish.

Landrieu would have had a point to spare in 2008, but she wouldn't have been there in the first place; Terrell would have flipped the actual margin in 2002.

Blanco would have actually held on, mostly because she overperformed in the rural parishes and Jindal weighed her down the New Orleans area anyway.

2012

Romney- 61.2%
Obama- 37.2%

2010

Vitter- 59.6%
Melancon- 34.6%

2008

McCain- 61.8%
Obama- 36.7%

Landrieu- 49.5%
Kennedy- 48.3%

2003

Blanco- 50.2%
Jindal- 49.8%

2002

Terrell- 51.7%
Landrieu- 48.3%

[ElectionsGuy]

LA without Orleans Parish.

Landrieu would have had a point to spare in 2008, but she wouldn't have been there in the first place; Terrell would have flipped the actual margin in 2002.

Blanco would have actually held on, mostly because she overperformed in the rural parishes and Jindal weighed her down the New Orleans area anyway.

2012

Romney- 61.2%
Obama- 37.2%

2010

Vitter- 59.6%
Melancon- 34.6%

2008

McCain- 61.8%
Obama- 36.7%

Landrieu- 49.5%
Kennedy- 48.3%

2003

Blanco- 50.2%
Jindal- 49.8%

2002

Terrell- 51.7%
Landrieu- 48.3%

1996 would be an even bigger lose for Landrieu

Jenkins - 53.1%
Landrieu - 46.9%

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

[Miles]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

[ElectionsGuy]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

[Flake]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

Yes.

[Miles]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

[ElectionsGuy]

I looked at that 2003 map, and I was shocked how close Jindal came by losing the majority of white rural modern republican counties. I looked at the vote totals and saw that the rural counties did nothing (in terms of vote margins) and Jindal ran up huge numbers in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, and did decent (for a republican) in Orleans. Very interesting stuff.

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

Is his race part of the reason he did poor in many of the rural white counties?

Which is why Jindal lived in northern LA from 2003-2007 trying to convince them that he was a white man.

OK, just checking

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Regarding Akin, he really didn't have a chance in hell post-rape comment.  I mean, considering this is what gets a Democrat 49.23% of the vote in Missouri...



...and this is what gets a Republican 39.11% of the vote.



I think you see where I'm going here.

The McCaskill campaign did a nice job milking that gaffe, no doubt about it.

[RedSLC]

Regarding Akin, he really didn't have a chance in hell post-rape comment.  I mean, considering this is what gets a Democrat 49.23% of the vote in Missouri...



...and this is what gets a Republican 39.11% of the vote.



I think you see where I'm going here.

The McCaskill campaign did a nice job milking that gaffe, no doubt about it.

No kidding. By the looks of it, Akin might have even lost his own congressional district to McCaskill. I don't know about the district's part of St. Louis County, but it appears that Akin lost the part of his old district outside St. Louis County by a narrow margin.

[Miles]

No kidding. By the looks of it, Akin might have even lost his own congressional district to McCaskill. I don't know about the district's part of St. Louis County, but it appears that Akin lost the part of his old district outside St. Louis County by a narrow margin.

McCaskill won CD2 53/47 (per DKE's awesome database of races-by-CD).

[Badger]

I believe Obama would've won PA in 08 without Philly, Allegheny, and Erie Counties combined.

[Flake]

I believe Obama would've won PA in 08 without Philly, Allegheny, and Erie Counties combined.

Obama: 2,231,455 (50.17%)
McCain: 2,215,966 (49.83%)

Total: 4,447,421*

*excludes third party vote

[Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin]

Could someone do one for the WA 2012, and 2004 Governor's races?