States without big counties

[publicunofficial]

Could someone do one for the WA 2012, and 2004 Governor's races?

Without King County? Or without Seattle?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I wish we would have more threads of "Pick your state" without "choose an inconsequential, endless swath of nothing". 

[Miles]

Could someone do one for the WA 2012, and 2004 Governor's races?

Without King County? Or without Seattle?

Without King County:

2012
McKenna- 53.3%
Inslee- 46.7%

2004
Rossi- 52.9%
Gregoire- 44.8%
Others- 2.3%

[Nichlemn]

Somewhat trickier: gerrymander the states, by switching no more than a few counties to neighbouring states, to maximise either the total number of Republican or Democratic Senate seats right now. (The gerrymander starts in 2008 and remains in place).

A few for Republicans:

- Clark (NV) to CA, +1R (Angle defeats Reid).
- Missoula (MT) to ID, +1R (Rehberg defeats Tester)
- One of the Eastern counties (ND) to MN, +1R (Berg defeats Heitkamp).
- Easy to flip MN from Coleman to Franken, made harder by the above though.
- I think a few counties in NoVa to MD to makes George Allen win in 2012.

[Sol]

IIRC, giving Shelby County, TN to MS makes it a competitive Romney state, and just giving Memphis flips Mississippi to Obama.

[Skill and Chance]

For Democrats:

Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to AL- President Gore.
Montgomery, MD to VA- would make VA much, much harder for R's
Camden, NJ to PA- but not sure NJ is safe without it.  Playing with fire if Christie runs.
Mesa, CO to UT- Largest Dem improvement that can be made in CO.
El Paso, TX to NM- would take NM off the table for good.
Middlesex, MA to NH- NH becomes about as liberal as Maine and MA stays safe Dem.
Jefferson, KY to IN-not going to be decisive, but it can do more good for the left there.
Oh, and if non-contiguous states count Honolulu, HI to Alaska.  Flips Alaska to Obama both times and remainder of Hawaii gets even safer.

Three more for Republicans that weren't mentioned yet.  The second one would be playing with fire in the long term, though:

Clark, NV to CA- NV flips and they aren't winning CA anyway
Mecklenburg, NC to SC- takes NC off the table and SC stays substantially R
Missoula, MT to ID- Tester and Bullock both lose, Tester by like 300 votes.

[Miles]

IIRC, giving Shelby County, TN to MS makes it a competitive Romney state, and just giving Memphis flips Mississippi to Obama.

Idk about Memphis proper, but if you added TN-09 to MS, Romney would have still carried MS by 760 votes.

With Shelby County, Romney wins 51-48.

[Nichlemn]

Oh, and if non-contiguous states count Honolulu, HI to Alaska.  Flips Alaska to Obama both times and remainder of Hawaii gets even safer.

Honolulu County is 2/3 of Hawaii's population and more populous than Alaska, so probably not within the spirit of the question. I'm pretty sure Bush wins this state though.

[Skill and Chance]

Oh, and if non-contiguous states count Honolulu, HI to Alaska.  Flips Alaska to Obama both times and remainder of Hawaii gets even safer.

Honolulu County is 2/3 of Hawaii's population and more populous than Alaska, so probably not within the spirit of the question. I'm pretty sure Bush wins this state though.

Of course, but if you were in the Alaska state legislature on a subzero day in Juneau, could you really bring yourself to vote against the motion to adjourn and reconvene in Honolulu

[nclib]

Oh, and if non-contiguous states count Honolulu, HI to Alaska.  Flips Alaska to Obama both times and remainder of Hawaii gets even safer.

Honolulu County is 2/3 of Hawaii's population and more populous than Alaska, so probably not within the spirit of the question. I'm pretty sure Bush wins this state though.

Of course, but if you were in the Alaska state legislature on a subzero day in Juneau, could you really bring yourself to vote against the motion to adjourn and reconvene in Honolulu

Isn't Honolulu actually more Republican than the rest of Hawaii?

[Skill and Chance]

Oh, and if non-contiguous states count Honolulu, HI to Alaska.  Flips Alaska to Obama both times and remainder of Hawaii gets even safer.

Honolulu County is 2/3 of Hawaii's population and more populous than Alaska, so probably not within the spirit of the question. I'm pretty sure Bush wins this state though.

Of course, but if you were in the Alaska state legislature on a subzero day in Juneau, could you really bring yourself to vote against the motion to adjourn and reconvene in Honolulu

Isn't Honolulu actually more Republican than the rest of Hawaii?

Yes, but this is Simpson's paradox in action- both states become more democratic.

[Brittain33]

Middlesex County, Mass. has significantly more people than all of NH.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to do Illinois - Cook County for all statewide races for Pres., Sen., and Gov. going back to 2004.

2012 President:

Romney (R): 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama (D): 1,530,975 (47.4%)

2010 Senate:

Kirk (R): 1,336,669 (57.9%)
Giannoulias (D): 820,727 (35.6%)

2010 Governor:

Brady (R): 1,313,100 (56.3%)
Quinn (D): 844,381 (36.2%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 1,790,649 (52.9%)
McCain (R): 1,543,791 (45.6%)

2008 Senate:

Durbin (D): 1,986,497 (60.4%)
Sauerberg (R): 1,173,187 (35.6%)

2006 Governor:

Topinka (R): 1,023,787 (47.0%)
Blagojevich (D): 882,598 (40.5%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 1,748,541 (54.2%)
Kerry (D): 1,451,826 (45.0%)

2004 Senate:

Obama (D): 1,968,160 (62.8%)
Keyes (R): 1,061,019 (33.9%)

Any more requests?

[RedSLC]

Any more requests?

Washington w/o King County (and possibly w/o Snohomish & Pierce Counties, too).

Oregon w/o Multnomah County.

[ElectionsGuy]

Okay, first Oregon w/o Multnomah. I'll also add it to Washington for Presidential elections.

2012 President:

Obama (D): 695,601 (48.8%)
Romney (R): 678,873 (47.7%)

Added to Washington

Obama (D): 2,030,283 (58.2%)
Romney (R): 1,365,972 (39.1%)

2010 Senate:

Wyden (D): 613,136 (52.7%)
Huffman (R): 509,686 (43.8%)

2010 Governor:

Dudley (R): 617,372 (52.6%)
Kitzhaber (D): 518,368 (44.2%)

2008 President:

Obama (D): 757,595 (51.8%)
McCain (R): 663,304 (45.3%)

Added to Washington

Obama (D): 2,030,544 (58.7%)
McCain (R): 1,304,387 (37.7%)

2008 Senate:

Smith (R): 709,209 (50.1%)
Merkley (D): 621,874 (43.9%)

2006 Governor:

Saxton (R): 524,260 (46.8%)
Kulongoski (D): 521,989 (46.6%)

2004 President:

Bush (R): 768,392 (52.1%)
Kerry (D): 683,578 (46.4%)

Added to Washington

Kerry (D): 1,769,786 (54.9%)
Bush (R): 1,403,333 (43.5%)

2004 Senate:

Wyden (D): 858,894 (60.1%)
King (R): 504,347 (35.3%)

Although Oregon still would've voted for Obama without Multnomah, its the reason Kitzhaber, Merkley, and even Kulongoski got elected. Overall it seems to shift Oregon 11 points (in % margin of victory) to the right. And when added to Washington it seems to make it shift 4 points to the left.

[Sol]

I wonder what happens if you take Washoe County out of Nevada and give it to CA. Does it affect any elections?

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder what happens if you take Washoe County out of Nevada and give it to CA. Does it affect any elections?

It does not affect the outcome of any elections, in Nevada or California. Reid still wins in 2010 and in 1998 (Ensign won Washoe, so it would actually make Reid's margin larger). No governors races were affected, no presidential races going back to 1992 were affected (although 1996 was very close, Dole won it so again it would only make Clinton's margin larger).

[Adam Griffin]

2012 President:

Romney 1,877,172 (58.75%)
Obama 1,280,133 (40.07%)
Johnson 37,371 (1.17%)



2012 President:

Romney 1,863,008 (60.12%)
Obama 1,198,654 (38.68%)
Johnson 36,947 (1.19%)

[Miles]

^ Adam, are both maps without Clayton County?

[Sol]

^ Adam, are both maps without Clayton County?

I'm not Adam, but I think only the second one lacks it.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Delaware without New Castle County:


President, 2012

Mitt Romney (R): 84,254 (52.03%)
Barack Obama (D): 75,509 (46.63%)
Gary Johnson (L): 1,396 (0.86%)
Jill Stein (G): 742 (0.45%)
Others: 15 (0.009%)

Senate, 2012

Tom Carper (D): 88,171 (56.24%)
Kevin Wade (R): 59,034 (37.65%)
Pires Alexander (IND): 8,426 (5.37%)
Groff A. Richard (Green): 1,140 (0.72%)

Senate, 2010

Christine O'Donnell (R): 65,404 (54.32%)
Chris Coons (D): 50,334 (41.81%)
Glenn A. Miller (IND): 3,742 (3.10%)
James W. Rash (L): 844 (0.70%)
Others: 21 (0.01%)

(Btw, sorry if I messed something with the %)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina sans Greenville County

President, 2012
Romney (R) 949,960 (53.64%) (-0.92%)
Obama (D) 797,871 (45.05%) (+0.96%)
Other 23,098

Governor, 2010
Haley (R) 612,290 (50.56%) (-0.81%)
Sheheen (D) 578,158 (47.74%) (+0.83%)
Other 20,711

President, 1980 (Most recent election in which doing this affects the winner)
Reagan (R) 395,039 (48.76%) (-0.81%)
Carter (D) 395,425 (48.84%) (+0.80%)
Anderson (I) 12,550 (1.55%) (-0.04%)
Other 6,654

Incidentally, I note that our largest city and our largest county have nothing to do with each other as the city of Greenville is only our sixth largest city and our largest city, Columbia, is in our second largest county, Richland.

Does anyone feel like compiling a list of which states have their largest cities not being associated with their largest counties?

[RedSLC]

Does anyone feel like compiling a list of which states have their largest cities not being associated with their largest counties?

I'll do it...In a little bit.

First, I gotta eat.

[RedSLC]

Here we go:

Colorado:
County with Largest City: Denver (Independent city, pop. 600,158)
Largest County: El Paso County (Colorado Springs, pop. 622,263)

Florida:
County with Largest City: Duval County (Mostly coterminous w/ Jacksonville, pop. 864,263)
Largest County: Miami-Dade County (Miami, pop. 2,496,435)

Kansas:
County with Largest City: Sedgewick County (Wichita, pop. 498,365)
Largest County: Johnson County (Bedroom community of Kansas City, pop. 544,179)

Louisiana:
Parish with Largest City: Orleans Parish (coterminous w/ New Orleans, pop. 343,829)
Largest Parish: East Baton Rouge Parish (Baton Rouge, pop. 440,171)

Maryland:
County with Largest City: Baltimore (Independent City, pop. 620,961)
Largest County: Montgomery County (Bedroom community of D.C., pop. 971,777)

Massachusetts:
County with Largest City: Suffolk County (Boston, pop. 722,023)
Largest County: Middlesex County (Bedroom community of Boston, pop. 1,503,085)

Missouri:
County with Largest City: Jackson County (Kansas City, pop. 674,158)
Largest County: St. Louis County (Bedroom community of St. Louis, pop. 998,954)

New Jersey:
County with Largest City: Essex County (Newark, pop. 783,969)
Largest County: Begren County (Bedroom community of NYC, pop. 905,116)

Ohio:
County with Largest City: Franklin County (Columbus, pop. 1,163,414)
Largest County: Cuyahoga County (Cleveland, pop. 1,280,122)

South Carolina:
County with Largest City: Richland County (Columbia, pop. 384,504)
Largest County: Greenville County (Greenville, pop. 451,225)

Virginia:
County with Largest City: Virginia Beach (Independent city, pop. 437,994)
Largest County: Fairfax County (Bedroom community of D.C., pop. 1,081,726)

[jimrtex]

Missouri:
County with Largest City: Jackson County (Kansas City, pop. 674,158)
Largest County: St. Louis County (Bedroom community of St. Louis, pop. 998,954)

Wow!  I had not realized that Kansas City was the larger city - but it is so by a remarkable amount.

1990 was the first census when St.Louis had fewer persons.  It now has 31% fewer persons.  St.Louis has lost 63.5% of its population since 1950, while Kansas City has gained 2%.

You can't really say that Kansas City passed St.Louis.  It is more like Casey was sitting on his 5th floor balcony when his 10th floor neighbor Louis jumped.