Your current ranking for republican primary.

[Senator Cris]

What is your current ranking for republican primary?

#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
#10

[JRP1994]

Preference, or analysis?

[Senator Cris]

Preference, or analysis?

Analysis or Preference and analysis

[SWE]

#1 Jeb Bush
#2 Scott Walker
#3 Rand Paul
#4 Chris Christie
#5 John Kasich
#6 Marco Rubio
#7 Mike Huckabee
#8 Ted Cruz
#9 Paul Ryan
#10 Rick Santorum

[NewYorkExpress]

1. Scott Walker, because he's the only one who isn't crazy or scandal-tarred... It might not even matter whether he loses this year.
2. John Thune- At this point whatever Republican that a General Election is going to have to bland and unappealing- and while the base holds many of the cards, they don't hold them all.
3. Ted Cruz- Probably would be the nominee if the has their way, or if something happens to Walker.
4. Rick Santorum- Santorum and Huckabee are essentially interchangeable, and as the top Social Conservative Candidates, they will influence the outcome. Watch out for either (or both) in the Iowa Caucuses.
5. Mike Huckabee- See Rick Santorum
6. Paul Ryan- Putting aside the "is he interested" question, Ryan's Policy Wonk reputation is probably not what Republicans want right now. Even if he is interested he probably won't run against Walker.
7. Chris Christie- The Bridgegate scandal hasn't completely crushed him, but it definitely has helped other Republicans. Christie now needs a New Hampshire win and top-two finish in Iowa to even be taken seriously, whereas before he probably didn't need the Iowa result.
8. Rand Paul- If Rand can win over more than his father's followers than he may just be the nominee. If not, he probably drops out after Iowa. There's also a better than 50-50 chance he doesn't run at all, given current Kentucky law.
9. Marco Rubio- Is interchangeable with Jeb Bush. The real difference between the two, is that Rubio has a better shot at the VP slot (Assuming a nominee like Walker or Thune could take the heat from anti-immigration forces)
10. Jeb Bush- At this point, he's Marco Rubio with a more damaging last name, and less of chance to be the Vice-Presidential nominee.
11. Kelly Ayotte- She's the hottest (on multiple levels) woman in the Republican Party, but realistically she'd be running for Vice-President if she ran. She would probably knock Christie out by locking up the New Hampshire Primary however.
12. Mary Fallin- May be a stronger Primary Candidate than Ayotte, but is almost certainly a weaker general election candidate.
13. Sarah Palin- If she wanted to she could be the nominee, problem is she really doesn't want to.
14. Rob Portman- Great General Election Choice, but he supports Same-Sex Marriage so he's a non-starter in the primary. Might even get primaried out of his Senate seat in 2016.
15. Brian Sandoval- A great General Election Candidate, but he's Pro-Choice, which means he'd be a non-starter in a primary. May Have more interest in challenging Sen. Reid in 2016.
16. Jim DeMint- Great on paper, but probably isn't interested
17. Michelle Bachmann- If Republicans want to nominate someone who's previous run for the presidency is under a criminal investigation than by all means let them.
18. Ben Carson- At least Herman Cain had some political experience...
19. Terry Branstad- Probably too Moderate for the current GOP, but just imagine what the Primaries would look like if both Branstad and Ayotte ran.
20. Rick Perry- I think the Republican Party would need to collectively take cyanide to nominate Perry for any office, after the disaster of his 2012 Presidential run.

[Potatoe]

#1 Jeb Bush
#2 Scott Walker
#3 Rand Paul
#4 Chris Christie
#5 John Kasich
#6 Marco Rubio
#7 Mike Huckabee
#8 Ted Cruz
#9 Paul Ryan
#10 Rick Santorum

Kasich ruled out a run a couple days ago.

[SWE]

In that case

#1 Jeb Bush
#2 Scott Walker
#3 Rand Paul
#4 Chris Christie
#5 John Kasich
#6 Marco Rubio
#7 Mike Huckabee
#8 Ted Cruz
#9 Paul Ryan
#10 Rick Santorum
#11 Rob Portman

[Matty]

1)Walker
2)Paul
3)Bush
4)Christie
5)Ryan
6)Rubio

[Bull Moose Base]

#1 Jeb Bush
#2 Scott Walker
#3 Rand Paul
#4 Chris Christie
#5 John Kasich
#6 Marco Rubio
#7 Mike Huckabee
#8 Ted Cruz
#9 Paul Ryan
#10 Rick Santorum

Kasich ruled out a run a couple days ago.

It's less convincing than I first thought.

In any case, guys like Walker and Kasich have to get through uncertain re-elections. Bush doesn't but by accounts, his indecision feels genuine. So I don't think you can rank those people above Cruz and Paul who, right now, are much more likely to run. Cruz and Paul also both have a very good chance of winning an early state. But I think Paul has more latent problems with the base than Cruz does.

So I'd rank them:
1. Cruz
2. Paul
3. Bush
4. Walker
5. Kasich
6. Christie
7. Huckabee
8. Ryan
9. Rubio
10. Jindal

But I'd say there's also a good chance it ends up someone off the radar. Thune would be one example of that since he's done nothing to suggest he has any interest in running. If he surprised everyone by running, he could become top tier.

[Suburbia]

1. Scott Walker, because he's the only one who isn't crazy or scandal-tarred... It might not even matter whether he loses this year.
2. John Thune- At this point whatever Republican that a General Election is going to have to bland and unappealing- and while the base holds many of the cards, they don't hold them all.
3. Ted Cruz- Probably would be the nominee if the has their way, or if something happens to Walker.
4. Rick Santorum- Santorum and Huckabee are essentially interchangeable, and as the top Social Conservative Candidates, they will influence the outcome. Watch out for either (or both) in the Iowa Caucuses.
5. Mike Huckabee- See Rick Santorum
6. Paul Ryan- Putting aside the "is he interested" question, Ryan's Policy Wonk reputation is probably not what Republicans want right now. Even if he is interested he probably won't run against Walker.
7. Chris Christie- The Bridgegate scandal hasn't completely crushed him, but it definitely has helped other Republicans. Christie now needs a New Hampshire win and top-two finish in Iowa to even be taken seriously, whereas before he probably didn't need the Iowa result.
8. Rand Paul- If Rand can win over more than his father's followers than he may just be the nominee. If not, he probably drops out after Iowa. There's also a better than 50-50 chance he doesn't run at all, given current Kentucky law.
9. Marco Rubio- Is interchangeable with Jeb Bush. The real difference between the two, is that Rubio has a better shot at the VP slot (Assuming a nominee like Walker or Thune could take the heat from anti-immigration forces)
10. Jeb Bush- At this point, he's Marco Rubio with a more damaging last name, and less of chance to be the Vice-Presidential nominee.
11. Kelly Ayotte- She's the hottest (on multiple levels) woman in the Republican Party, but realistically she'd be running for Vice-President if she ran. She would probably knock Christie out by locking up the New Hampshire Primary however.
12. Mary Fallin- May be a stronger Primary Candidate than Ayotte, but is almost certainly a weaker general election candidate.
13. Sarah Palin- If she wanted to she could be the nominee, problem is she really doesn't want to.
14. Rob Portman- Great General Election Choice, but he supports Same-Sex Marriage so he's a non-starter in the primary. Might even get primaried out of his Senate seat in 2016.
15. Brian Sandoval- A great General Election Candidate, but he's Pro-Choice, which means he'd be a non-starter in a primary. May Have more interest in challenging Sen. Reid in 2016.
16. Jim DeMint- Great on paper, but probably isn't interested
17. Michelle Bachmann- If Republicans want to nominate someone who's previous run for the presidency is under a criminal investigation than by all means let them.
18. Ben Carson- At least Herman Cain had some political experience...
19. Terry Branstad- Probably too Moderate for the current GOP, but just imagine what the Primaries would look like if both Branstad and Ayotte ran.
20. Rick Perry- I think the Republican Party would need to collectively take cyanide to nominate Perry for any office, after the disaster of his 2012 Presidential run.

1. Jeb Bush-He is Mr. Establishment, if he gets in the race, I don't know what the Tea Party can do to stop his nomination
2. Scott Walker-He's the consensus candidate, lack of charisma could be problematic in General election
3. John Thune-Could be another consensus candidate, but lack of charisma and too conventional look could be a snoozer in the General election, but good nominee. Probably Iowa or bust. Would probably want to run for re-election in Senate though.
4. Chris Christie-If the scandal does not destroy him, he could be a game-changing candidate, but, we'll see if the Tea Party wants him as the nominee. It's New Hampshire or bust for Christie's campaign.
5. Rand Paul-He's the Libertarian king, he could be the nominee if young voters turn out in GOP primaries
6. Ted Cruz-Could be nominee, could be a disaster, but conservatives would LOVE him all the way to November 2016.
7. Marco Rubio-Unless he shifts away from immigration reform, he is probably the #1 choice as VP, he could be another consensus choice for the nominee. Would probably want to run for re-election to Senate.
8. Mike Huckabee-He would be the social conservative choice, but he would need Iowa and all the "Santorum primary states", and some moderate states to be the nominee.
9. Rick Santorum-See Huckabee
10. Rob Portman-Could be the nominee, same sex marriage position would destroy him. Probably No. 2 in VP consideration.
11. Kelly Ayotte-Could be the "Establishment Dark Horse Choice", but has to face re-election in Senate.
12. Mike Pence-Could be a dark horse choice, would probably be nominee if Walker, Bush, or Huckabee falters. Has to face re-election in 2016 though.
13. Susana Martinez-If the Republicans are facing more problems with voters, Martinez could be the sane, moderate choice. Probably the No. 3 in VP consideration.
14. Bobby Jindal-Yes, Jindal is not popular in Louisiana, lost some "star-appeal" with conservatives, years ago Limbaugh called him the "next Ronald Reagan". Sadly, he is probably a  VP choice.
15. Rick Perry-His 2012 campaign was a disaster, he could rise back, but he may be a dark horse if Walker, Bush, Christie falter due to his economic credentials and should have a better debate skills and better staff.
16. Ben Carson-He would be the "far-right" candidate of the race. He would probably not be nominee unless if Cruz falters and conservatives turn out in huge droves in the primaries.
17. Paul Ryan-He has been vetted by the media, and has national experience (2012 GOP VP). He should be higher on the list, but if he does not run but is forced due to a lackluster field, he could be another consensus choice.
18. Rick Snyder-If Bush, Walker, Christie falter, the GOP would want a former businessman, now Michigan governor to lead the party, but would it be Romney 2.0?
19. Allen West-See Ben Carson
20. Sarah Palin-See Ben Carson
WILD CARDS: Sadly, Alan Keyes (some people love this man for some reason), Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (Anti-tax CEO Grover Norquist loves him for some reason), Ex-Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (if the Establishment and Evangelical wing needs someone if the rest falter), Ex-Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (see Pawlenty)

[⛄]

#1 Jeb Bush
#2 Chris Christie
#3 Rand Paul
#4 Ted Cruz
#5 Jon Huntsman
#6 Marco Rubio
#7 random woman
#8 Scott Walker
#9 Bobby Jindal
#10 John Kasich

[daveosupremo]

Preference:

1. Rand Paul
2. Scott Walker
3. Ted Cruz
4. Bobby Jindal
5. Marco Rubio
6. Rick Perry
7. Paul Ryan
8. Rick Santorum
9. Mike Huckabee
10. Chris Christie
11. Jeb Bush

[Mister Mets]

Hard to say. The next Republican nominee may very well be someone who has an even at best chance of running.

If Jeb Bush ran, I think he'd have a better chance than Rand Paul. But Rand Paul is almost certain to seek the nomination.

1. Rand Paul: Top-tier candidate. Likely to run.
2. Paul Ryan: Immediate frontrunner. May not run.
3. Jeb Bush: Immediate frontrunner. May not run.
4. Susanna Martinez/ Kelly Ayotte/ Cathy McMorris Rodgers/ Nikki Haley- At least one of these women will run, if due to party encouragement. And they would have a good shot at the nomination.
5. Marco Rubio: Political talent. Well-positioned if Jeb and Ryan opt out.
6. Scott Walker: Well-positioned. Untested on national level. Not as likely to run as people assume.
7. Chris Christie: Weakened. But significant political force.
8. Mike Huckabee: Still polls well. Has the support of a large chunk of the base. Rather likely to make embarrassing gaffes.
9. Ted Cruz: Likely to run. Will shamelessly pander to base. Has burned a lot of bridges.
10. John Kasich/ Bobby Jindal/ Rob Portman/ John Thune- No particular reason they can't be the nominee, but they'll start out as second-tier candidates in a crowded field. It's tough to get out of that.

[Consciously Unconscious]

At the moment:

1.  Jeb Bush
2.  Scott Walker
3.  Rand Paul
4.  Chris Christie
 



5.  Marco Rubio
6.  Mike Huckabee
7.  Paul Ryan
8.  John Kasich
9.  Rick Perry
10. Ted Cruz  

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush will run. Rubio will endorse him. I told you all Cruz would rise this fast. He's the man to beat.

This is coming from someone who always thought a Bush run was more likely than a Rubio run, even when the board's consensus was the opposite. Still, there's still a big enough chance he won't run- arguably >50%- that I don't understand ranking him #1 at this point. Same with Walker. On the other hand, Cruz is much more likely to run than not. And why assume the establishment can stop him? They failed to dictate the winners in Iowa or New Hampshire in 2008, or Iowa or South Carolina 2012. It's true that Huckabee, Santorum and Gingrich ultimately failed to win the nomination but Cruz doesn't have similar weaknesses.

And I don't understand Thune either. One person posts it and then everyone else follows suit. The guy hasn't done a thing to suggest he has the slightest interest in running. Get your head in the game!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I figure I'm probably close to last at this point due to low name recognition and lack of legal eligibility.

[Bull Moose Base]

I figure I'm probably close to last at this point due to low name recognition and lack of legal eligibility.

Sounds like a 2006 quote from Obama. Hit those talk shows, fix that birth certificate… voila!

[Mr. Morden]

Bush will run. Rubio will endorse him. I told you all Cruz would rise this fast. He's the man to beat.

This is coming from someone who always thought a Bush run was more likely than a Rubio run, even when the board's consensus was the opposite. Still, there's still a big enough chance he won't run- arguably >50%- that I don't understand ranking him #1 at this point. Same with Walker. On the other hand, Cruz is much more likely to run than not. And why assume the establishment can stop him? They failed to dictate the winners in Iowa or New Hampshire in 2008, or Iowa or South Carolina 2012.

I still think Rubio is more likely to run than Bush, and that you're overrating Cruz.

I'm in the Jonathan Bernstein / Jonathan Chait school of thought on how the primaries work, in the sense that I think party elites exercise fairly effective veto power over who the "serious contenders" are, to the extent that the nomination is often decided even before anyone votes.  (As it was in 2012, when Romney won the nomination before the Iowa caucuses, because party elites vetoed Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum as serious choices.)  E.g.,

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-01-09/will-scandal-cost-christie-the-invisible-primary-

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Now, sure, the present nomination system is still young, so it's still possible that you could have a genuine upset, and the party establishment could "lose".  But I actually think a more plausible candidate to pull off such an upset is Paul.  Cruz isn't really selling anything all that unique, and there's still plenty of time for him to be overshadowed by others, as several other candidates will be echoing his pitch.  But Paul is, I think, something more unique, and I could imagine some weird circumstance in which he could pull it off (probably tearing the party apart in the process).  But I wouldn't get too optimistic about him either.  There are a number of candidates who are broadly acceptable to the party establishment this time, and most likely one of them will win.

[Orser67]

Rankings in terms of winning the nomination if they run. I think I view the GOP primary as significantly less favorable to those on the right wing of the party than do most other predictors  in this thread.

1st tier: co-frontrunners (as long as one and only one runs)
1)Jeb Bush
2)Marco Rubio

2nd tier: plausible candidates
3)Chris Christie
4)John Kasich
5)Paul Ryan
6)Scott Walker
7)Rob Portman
8)John Thune

3rd tier: flawed, but could catch fire
9)Rand Paul
10)Bobby Jindal

Plausible but I doubt they run: Mitch Daniels, Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte, Terry Branstad, Susana Martinez, Mike Pence, Rick Snyder (if re-elected), Pat McCrory, Bill Haslam

Almost no chance of actually winning in 2016: Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Jim DeMint, Rick Santorum

[dudeabides]

Preference
#1 Chris Christie
#2 Jeb Bush
#3 Scott Walker
#4 Paul Ryan
#5 Bobby Jindal
#6 Peter King
#7 Mike Huckabee
#8 Rick Santorum
#9 Ted Cruz
#10 Rand Paul

Analysis
#1 Paul Ryan
#2 Chris Christie
#3 Mike Huckabee
#4 Jeb Bush
#5 Scott Walker
#6 Rand Paul
#7 Marco Rubio
#8 Ted Cruz
#9 Bobby Jindal
#10 Peter King

PLEASE NOTE: these names are of folks I think are more than 80% likely to run.

[Fritz]

1. Bush (if he decides to run, the nom is probably his)
2. Walker (assuming he wins re-election)
3. Paul (if Bush and Walker both are out, here is your nominee)
4. Christie (Repubs might forgive him for Bridgegate, but there is no chance he wins general)
5. Rubio (good VP material)
6. Cruz

all others irrelevant.

[Maxwell]

For now,

1. Rand Paul (been holding on far better than everyone else, shocking staying power compared to the rest of the field)
2. Scott Walker (Depends on re-election, but big money will back him)
3. Jeb Bush (Probably a paper tiger)
4. Chris Christie (Definitely a paper tiger)
5. Ted Cruz (his stock is sinking at the moment, but he can recover)
6. Paul Ryan (Can't imagine he'll want to compete if Bush and/or Christie are in)
7. Mike Huckabee (probably won't run, but he has a strong soc con base if he does)
8. John Kasich (probably strong if he wins re-elect, but Tea Party doesn't like him)
9. Marco Rubio (I mean, nothing's impossible, right?)
10. Rick Santorum (well, except for maybe this, but who knows?)

[Bull Moose Base]

I am skeptical the "party" can dictate the nominee. For one thing, party actors aren't monolithic. Palin and Rush Limbaugh (who vocally opposed both Huckabee and eventual nominee McCain in 2008) are party actors. They're likely to endorse Cruz if he runs. As far as "the establishment" goes, they failed to dictate many statewide nominees over the last two cycles and candidates they were allergic to won Iowa in 2008 and 12, New Hampshire in 08, South Carolina in 12. It's true none of Huckabee, Santorum or Gingrich ended up the nominee, but I think there was a better chance they could have been than Bernstein allows. And Cruz won't be as meek a fundraiser as Huckabee or Santorum and won't have the vulnerabilities Gingrich had in his shady past. They don't simply veto a candidate they don't like, they struggle to over the attempt of other party leaders to veto their choice. And the winner of that contest isn't always a foregone conclusion. My larger point, was that even if it's twice as likely an establishment approved candidate is the nominee as a Cruz or Paul, Cruz or Paul should still rank ahead of the establishment choices since their sub-primary is more wide open. It'd be like if in the early Super Bowl days, Cruz and Paul were in the AFL Championship and no one even knew was going to be in the NFL playoffs. And maybe one of them is the Jets. Not that Cruz is guaranteed to run but he's far more likely than Bush, whose wife's feelings are a huge question mark, or Walker, who is reportedly waiting on Ryan and could lose his re-election.

[Potatoe]

#1. Bill Haslam (Let's face it, the current field is crap, and Haslam has a pretty decent record, and could give Hillary at least a credible challenge)
#2 Rand Paul (More Mainstream than his dad, very well known, the Tea Party bandwagon would probably throw their weight around him if Cruz stays out)
#3 Chris Christie (Only if he manages to recover from Sandy gate and Bridge Gate, though the Tea Party will invest a lot to defeat him)
#4 Ted Cruz (The Tea Party's Golden Boy, and has a tiny bit of spread out appeal, would do vastly well in the south)
#5 Scott Walker (With his Re-Election chances looking ever slimmer, and a new corruption scandal to boot, probably not the best when it comes to Wisconsin GOP'ers, but higher chances if something bad happens to Burke and he wins by at least 9 Points)
#6 Mike Huckabee (Washed out, but would dominate the south if neither Paul or Cruz run, but he brings out the worst in the GOP, he's Socially Conservative, which is quickly becoming uncool with the Republicans, and he's an economic Liberal, something that would drive Conservative's off, but in the Primary, he could be a game changer)
#7 Rick Perry (While many haven't forgotten his 2012 Debacle of a campaign, his new look of added glasses and impressive performance at CPAC could give him a second chance with the Republicans, though be wary if the other famous Texan comes in too *Wink*)
#8 Rick Santorum (Could manage to soak up his 2012 Tea Party and evangelical table scraps, with a tiny bit more, but could lead to vote splitting if Huckabee gets in, and his "Man on Dog" like comments are, unsavory to say the least)
#9 Marco Rubio (He's crazy, jumped several sharks, and somehow manages to lose Hispanic support over the last couple years, as well as a vulnerable Senate Seat, sounds like a keeper!)
#10 Bobby Jindal (See Rubio, but black)

Honorable Mention:
#11 Rick Snyder (Old boring white guy, though he is moderately popular, and from a D State, you never know)

[ajackson]

1. Perry.
2. Paul.
3. Walker.
4. Santorum.