Phil Bredesen vs. Mark Sanford

[A18]

What's a map look like in 2008?

[Moooooo]

No thrid party candidate?  This is a situation where a liberal candidate could pull 5%+...

[A18]

Two great governors! I would be a swing voter!

Anyway, no, for purposes of this poll, you have to pick one.

I'm sure Nader would run. Who will BRTD vote for?

[No more McShame]

lean Sanford/Sanford

if Democrats kidnap Ralph Nadar and send him to Guatamano then lean Sanford/Bredesen

[Moooooo]

Best Case Scenario for Bredesen



Worst Case Scenario for Bredsen

[A18]

A lot of states would be in play. It could produce a pretty stange map.

[Moooooo]

Wonder what Bredesen vs Giuliani would look like.  w/ no third party candidates?

[Jake]

Wonder what Bredesen vs Giuliani would look like.  w/ no third party candidates?

The populist and very partisan Democratic states for Bedresen and the libertarian and very partisan GOP states for Guiliani.

[A18]

Giuliani is not a libertarian. He is a social liberal.

[Jake]

Giuliani is not a libertarian. He is a social liberal.

Libertarian socially, pro-business=libertarian.  He doesn't have to share your radical views to be a libertarian.

[A18]

He's not libertarian socially. If he was, he wouldn't be pro- gun control, now would he?

[Jake]

He's not libertarian socially. If he was, he wouldn't be pro- gun control, now would he?

One issue.  Not everyone comes out of standard, ready made positions. On most issues, he's a social libertarian.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm sure Nader would run. Who will BRTD vote for?

Bredesen

[No more McShame]

With Nader



Sanford 282 EV 46%
Bredesen 256 EV 45%
Nader 0 EV 8%

If Nader is kidnapped



Bredesen 367 EV 52%
Sanford 171 EV 47%

[nclib]

Bredesen/Bredesen.

[phk]

Bredesen/Bredesen

[Rob]

Undecided/Don't Know. They are both excellent choices who would be great Presidents. The question of who wins depends entirely on the third party situation. If a left winger runs, as a Green or otherwise, I'd expect them to poll 2 percent at least. Assuming this is a close election- which it probably would be- this would give Sanford the victory.

If the left is so sick of Republicans by 2008 that they'll vote for Bredesen, I would expect him to win. Without further ado, here are two possible maps:

No liberal independent



Bredesen wins 281-257.

With liberal independent



Sanford wins 279-259.

Either way, it would be a very interesting race!

[Ebowed]

Sanford/Sanford.



Sanford 282
Bredesen 256

A very close race; popular vote would be something like 49-49, assuming no independent liberal runs.

[No more McShame]

I'm suprised you give Wisconsin to Sanford.  I would think Bredesen would go over well there with the rural Democrats that Wisconsin is filled with.  Just curious of your reasoning behind that.

[Ebowed]

I'm suprised you give Wisconsin to Sanford.  I would think Bredesen would go over well there with the rural Democrats that Wisconsin is filled with.  Just curious of your reasoning behind that.

Well, the same reasoning was used when Kerry chose Edwards as his running mate.  Of course, Bredesen would be at the top of the ticket, but he wouldn't be the same Democrat he is now, because every Democrat has to mash their beliefs together into something suitable before seeking the presidency (look at Dennis Kucinich or Dick Gephardt).  Considering how close Wisconsin was in 2004 (I had expected a 51-48 victory for Kerry), it may just give the edge to Sanford in a race like this.  Sanford wouldn't need Wisconsin to win, however, if he wins every other state I gave him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well, the same reasoning was used when Kerry chose Edwards as his running mate.

and Kerry won Wisconsin. Plus Bredesen would play much better in the Milwaukee suburbs than most Democrats judging from his record as governor.

[Ebowed]

Well, the same reasoning was used when Kerry chose Edwards as his running mate.

and Kerry won Wisconsin.

By less than a percentage point.

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This is possible but his record as governor would probably be downplayed so that his new, more liberal presidential candidacy opinions would get the spotlight.

[A18]

Best Case Scenario for Bredesen

Virginia would go for Bredesen in the best case scenario for him. Utah would not be >70% GOP.

As for worst case, he could do a lot worse than the map you posted. I mean come on, carrying Iowa and New Mexico in the WORST CASE scenario?

[opebo]

Bredesen: 300
Sanford:    238
Really Colorado could go either way..