NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King

[Miles]

Report.

Martinez (R)- 47%
King (D)- 42%

She leads the other Democrats by double-digits. Her approvals are 52/40.

[moderatevoter]

I think she wins, but it'll be closer than a lot of people seem to think.

[NewYorkExpress]

Report.

Martinez (R)- 47%
King (D)- 42%

She leads the other Democrats by double-digits. Her approvals are 52/40.

I admit, I'm a little surprised it's even five points... maybe we can win this one...

[Miles]

I'd expect her lead to be bigger given her approvals. Still, Quinnipiac had Kasich in a similar situation.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Synder is gonna be a pickup as well as PA and ME. NM is now prime for pickup as well.

[LeBron]

I had a feeling this would be a dark horse contender. I won't go into a 3 paragraph story about this, but this spells trouble for Martinez if she only leads by 5 when she's getting 1/4th of crossover Democratic support as is. Unlike with Sandoval, there's a strong Democratic front runner here so the DGA should keep their eye on Martinez in case she does anything unpopular. I think this can be shifted from likely to lean R to leaving Christie with even another seat to defend including yet another 2016 hopeful for a running mate.

[IceSpear]

I expected her to be leading by a bigger margin as well.

[Miles]

Someone on RRH pointed out this sample is D+22 while 2012 was D+12.

Yeah, she's up by more.

[Maxwell]

Someone on RRH pointed out this sample is D+22 while 2012 was D+12.

Yeah, she's up by more.

I was about to say Dems might have a shot if they run a strong campaign, but that made me re-think that.

[IceSpear]

Someone on RRH pointed out this sample is D+22 while 2012 was D+12.

Yeah, she's up by more.

Seems strange that the Obama v. Romney numbers would be accurate then (Obama +10).

[DrScholl]

Someone on RRH pointed out this sample is D+22 while 2012 was D+12.

Yeah, she's up by more.

Unskewing is to be expected from RRH. It's pretty much a given that party ID doesn't really matter much, since it's so fluid and not really that reliable of a cross tab. Pollsters ask the people they call which party they identify with, they don't just decide to call people based on a per-determined sample.

RRH is a cesspool, they are constantly calling Democratic candidates moonbats and all sorts of things in their write ups. I'm surprised Dean Chambers doesn't post there.

[Joshgreen]

Someone on RRH pointed out this sample is D+22 while 2012 was D+12.

Yeah, she's up by more.

Nope, not true. Read PPP's write up:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/martinez-udall-lead-for-reelection.html

[King]

Very unlikely King is the nominee. He's having trouble raising money and finished 5th in the state convention.

Still, surprised he's this close.

[Badger]

Very unlikely King is the nominee. He's having trouble raising money and finished 5th in the state convention.

Still, surprised he's this close.

Who do you think the likely nom is?

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2014-03-23

Summary: D: 42%, R: 47%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[King]

Very unlikely King is the nominee. He's having trouble raising money and finished 5th in the state convention.

Still, surprised he's this close.

Who do you think the likely nom is?

It's always such a crapshoot in the primaries here and it's not until June. My money is on State Sen. Howie Morales.  He's young and less baggage.  There's also this Alan Webber guy, who's a big Santa Fe True Leftist type that could end up doing strong.

Nobody's going to beat Martinez, though. She's way too inoffensive.  As I've said before, she's more of a Dixiecrat than a Republican.

[BaconBacon96]

Not good for Martinez.

[sg0508]

What in the heck happened to her? Wasn't she one of the top 5 most popular governors just a year back? I figured she was heading to a win reaching at or near 60% and in gubernatorial races, that is very possible for the minority party.

What happened to her? This would be one of the biggest choke jobs/upsets of the entire season if you ask me.

[Maxwell]

What in the heck happened to her? Wasn't she one of the top 5 most popular governors just a year back? I figured she was heading to a win reaching at or near 60% and in gubernatorial races, that is very possible for the minority party.

What happened to her? This would be one of the biggest choke jobs/upsets of the entire season if you ask me.

She's still really popular, but New Mexico is very quickly becoming a super Democratic state.

[sg0508]

Eh. She's not that popular any longer.  52-40? That's okay, but not wonderful.  She was supposed to be the next big thing in the GOP and considering she's from the minority party in a state where Hispanics are "it", this would be a huge, huge blow to her and the Republican party.  Never did I ever suspect that she would be in any danger this November.  Kudos to the Democrats though if they can pull this off.  

One thing that's become evident though since 2006....you can always count on the democratic party finding some good candidates to steal races they otherwise shouldn't win and you can count on the GOP losing races they have no business losing.  This isn't quite the same story as Martinez isn't an O'Donnell, Akin clone, but what a shocker this would be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eh. She's not that popular any longer.  52-40? That's okay, but not wonderful.  She was supposed to be the next big thing in the GOP and considering she's from the minority party in a state where Hispanics are "it", this would be a huge, huge blow to her and the Republican party.  Never did I ever suspect that she would be in any danger this November.  Kudos to the Democrats though if they can pull this off.  

One thing that's become evident though since 2006....you can always count on the democratic party finding some good candidates to steal races they otherwise shouldn't win and you can count on the GOP losing races they have no business losing.  This isn't quite the same story as Martinez isn't an O'Donnell, Akin clone, but what a shocker this would be.

I am not all that surprise. Heather Wilson was similar in style to Martinez and she lost, and the Dems are
competetive in AZ gov race as well with Duval. I would love to steal AZ or NM.

[sg0508]

Wilson was in the House though.  She ran a good race in 2012, but that was an uphill climb all the way in a presidential year where democratic turnout was up. In 2010, she could have won that race.

Martinez should be a shoe-in for re-election.  This really surprises me.  The question is, would this be a reflection on her, or again the National GOP which just has a major stench to it, particularly to minorities?

[Joshgreen]

The GOP doesn't like the browns. What a surprise they don't like Republican politicians...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP doesn't like the browns. What a surprise they don't like Republican politicians...

It isn't a personal thing, it is on substance. If the Dems don't recapture the House, state by state, we will elect Dem govs to put in place a min wage increase at 9 or 10 an hr.

[sg0508]

Keep this in mind too...while the state keeps changing, Domenici kept winning by colassal margins in NM for years...in the Senate.

I still cannot believe this race could end up being a democratic win.  I don't know much about NM state politics, but if the legislature is controlled by democrats, I wonder if they're playing the old cruel trick of "stalling" everything going there, which usually trickles down to the governor.  Since voters know more about the governor than their legislatures, they usually blame the governor.