NM-PPP: Martinez popular, leads King

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Domenici supported McCain-Feingold campaign finance laws. And the state was purple back then. Now, it is a blue state like Wisc.

[MurrayBannerman]

Let's see a little bit more corroborating data before we start calling this up for grabs, yea?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruce King, King's father served as gov in 1970's. So, it is possible for King to win.

[Badger]

Bruce King, King's father served as gov in 1970's. So, it is possible for King to win.

Well, who can argue with that logic?

[Badger]

Very unlikely King is the nominee. He's having trouble raising money and finished 5th in the state convention.

Still, surprised he's this close.

Who do you think the likely nom is?

It's always such a crapshoot in the primaries here and it's not until June. My money is on State Sen. Howie Morales.  He's young and less baggage.  There's also this Alan Webber guy, who's a big Santa Fe True Leftist type that could end up doing strong.

Nobody's going to beat Martinez, though. She's way too inoffensive.  As I've said before, she's more of a Dixiecrat than a Republican.

Republicans better hope King loses the primary, as the other candidates are well behind Martinez in this poll as expected. King is the only one keeping it tight for Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

If Martinez loses in a Dem midterm, Republicans really do need to give up on NM.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Martinez loses in a Dem midterm, Republicans really do need to give up on NM.

Or maybe the trend of opposite party gaining significantly in midterms, is being broken. We have chances for pickups in MI, FL, NM, Pa, ME and maybe keep AR.

[Zioneer]

I think that at least in 2014, Martinez will be like Scott Walker; theoretically beatable, but with just enough support to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have an even chance to beat Walker. It is too early to tell which way the election winds will blow an R year or a neutral year.

[LeBron]

We have an even chance to beat Walker. It is too early to tell which way the election winds will blow an R year or a neutral year.

You think there's a better chance to take down Martinez than we can Kasich then? While NM is more blue than OH, Martinez is still uncontroversial while the other aforementioned Governor very much is. She's much more conservative than people think she is (and heck, even Rand Paul is backing her re-election campaign), but she can avoid the media spotlight leaving her as a Hispanic Republican Governor who can work in a bipartisan fashion with a Democratic legislature to balance the budget as opposed to a polarizing Kasich.

I still would leave this as lean R because besides a strong bench of Democratic candidates and the state's blue nature, there's not a lot else to say. For our sake though, King needs to win the primary if we want the slightest shot here, but he's already at an outside disadvantage with the DGA and other groups focusing more on KS and GA as their "dark horse's" than on NM or AZ.