The South is Solid Once More -and This Time, It's Republican

[smoltchanov]

Precisely my point. If both candidates are pro Wall Street you might as well go with the pro-life one or the one endorsed by the NRA.

Do you consider, say, James Eastland, an economical progressive or fiercely populist? Or Sam Erwin? Or Russell Long? Or ... Southern Democrats in the past were not neccessarily populist - many of them were solidly "pro-business". More local one, then Wall Street, but still... Many (well, not so many now, because Democratic state legislative caucus in the South is, mostly, black-based) state legislators were too..

[IceSpear]

The problems with the Blue Dogs is that they were not economically populist enough while obviously being eclipsed in socially conservative populism by the Republicans-causing many voters to vote for the "real thing" who at least was loudly pro-life and pro "traditional marriage". What if the Blue Dogs had been calling for expanding vocational education rather than voting to repeal the estate tax?

The Blue Dogs' economic polices were incoherent. In the "old days" of the Solid South, the Democrats were first and foremost advocates for their local economies; the liberal and conservative Democrats split on how forcefully to advocate for the welfare state and how much money should be allocated to it.

It boggles my mind that you had Democrats in the Deep South voting against financial regulation post-2008. It makes sense to do so if you're a NY/NJ/CT Democrat from a silk stocking district. But the people of Alabama have nothing to gain from leaving derivatives markets unregulated. They don't work on Wall Street. Their local industry isn't sinking or swimming based on that.

Precisely my point. If both candidates are pro Wall Street you might as well go with the pro-life one or the one endorsed by the NRA.

Somewhere along the line being a "Blue Dog" went from being "socially conservative and economically populist" to "conservative on everything". So yeah, if you have two candidates who are conservative on everything, why vote for the one who will vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker?

[smoltchanov]

Somewhere along the line being a "Blue Dog" went from being "socially conservative and economically populist" to "conservative on everything". So yeah, if you have two candidates who are conservative on everything, why vote for the one who will vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker?

What if "the one" will not vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker?... Even in recent years some Democrats didn't do it.

[Anonymouse]

Somewhere along the line being a "Blue Dog" went from being "socially conservative and economically populist" to "conservative on everything". So yeah, if you have two candidates who are conservative on everything, why vote for the one who will vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker?

What if "the one" will not vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker?... Even in recent years some Democrats didn't do it.

I'm not sure what your point is. IceSpear is saying this: given the choice between a conservative Republican who hates Obama and a conservative Democrat who pretends to hate Obama, conservative voters will choose the Republican. Believe me, in certain circles these days, if you say "Democrat," that conjures up a witches' brew of monstrosity. Saying you're "Pro-life" or "I love them guns!" ain't nearly enough.

[smoltchanov]

I'm not sure what your point is. IceSpear is saying this: given the choice between a conservative Republican who hates Obama and a conservative Democrat who pretends to hate Obama, conservative voters will choose the Republican. Believe me, in certain circles these days, if you say "Democrat," that conjures up a witches' brew of monstrosity. Saying you're "Pro-life" or "I love them guns!" ain't nearly enough.

And i already said why. Because "in that circles" an identity holds: "Democratic party" = "Obama" (identically). As long as this opinion holds (and it WILL hold as long as Obama (extremely weak President IMHO, and black to boot) is a President) - even ultraconservative Democrat will have no chances (there are numerous examples from last election on legislative level, and some (like Barrow, who couldn't convince his voters to vote for him, even being moderate conservative himself) - on Congressional). Relatively conservative white state legislators in the South lose even in a few districts, specifically made for them, like Bedford in Alabama (absolutely "Demosaur" district as it could be). Or simply refuse to run seeing "letters on the wall". And in some states (like Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama or, i fear, an Arkansas now) "these circles" comprise 80-90% of whites - not only well-to-do, but white working class too (may be - even to greater degree then well-to-do)

[Anonymouse]

I'm not sure what your point is. IceSpear is saying this: given the choice between a conservative Republican who hates Obama and a conservative Democrat who pretends to hate Obama, conservative voters will choose the Republican. Believe me, in certain circles these days, if you say "Democrat," that conjures up a witches' brew of monstrosity. Saying you're "Pro-life" or "I love them guns!" ain't nearly enough.

And i already said why. Because "in that circles" an identity holds: "Democratic party" = "Obama" (identically). As long as this opinion holds (and it WILL hold as long as Obama (extremely weak President IMHO, and black to boot) is a President) - even ultraconservative Democrat will have no chances (there are numerous examples from last election on legislative level, and some (like Barrow, who couldn't convince it's voters to vote for him, even being moderate conservative himself) - on Congressional). And in some states (like Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama or, i fear, an Arkansas now) "these circles" comprise 80-90% of whites - not only well-to-do, but white working class too (may be - even to greater degree then well-to-do)

So we agree!

But not completely. I don't think you understand the stigma "Democrat" carries among these rednecks. Dude, I'm telling you, this is not only an anti-Obama phenomenon. The South is gone. Deal with it. I could gie you some anecdotal evidence, but you wouldn't care and it doesn't matter.

The white South is gone.

[smoltchanov]

So we agree!

But not completely. I don't think you understand the stigma "Democrat" carries among these rednecks. Dude, I'm telling you, this is not only an anti-Obama phenomenon. The South is gone. Deal with it. I could gie you some anecdotal evidence, but you wouldn't care and it doesn't matter.

The white South is gone.

Not completely. I have good friends in the South, so i don't need additional evidence. After Obama (and, possibly, Pelosi as party leader in House, who is also a bogus or "devil incarnate" in the South) is gone Democrats will be able to win something in the South - approximately as frequenly as Republicans in New England (may be - somewhat less frequently). But - not sooner.

[Anonymouse]

The white South is gone.

If so, could you see a regional SoCon, but eonomically populist party challenge the Republicans or will the South (especially Upper South states with few blacks) become de facto one party states?

One-party states, man! C'mon, you're smarter than that. This isn't the 1890s and white supremacist progressivism (for lack of a better term- "populism" means nothing) is not in vogue.

I will supply anecdotal evidence in the opposite direction, though. Redneck Alabama buddy of mine asks us- right before the 2012 elections- who we're voting for. /uncomfortable silence/ "We don't really talk about politics." /uncomfortable silence/ "Well, I'm gonna ote for that Obama. Romney don't care about us."

Found the 10 percent of Alabama whites that voted Democratic!

[Devils30]

The new south is very winnable for Dems and expect competitive races in VA, FL, NC. Georgia will join this list sometime around 2020-2024. The rest of the south is hopeless for Dems and I think we have a better chance to win Arizona, Montana than any other southern state.

[Mr. Illini]

Nothing says solid like trending Democrat in Presidential elections. Let's not confuse the deep south with the coast. North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia are still competitive.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Democrats created their problems in the Deep South over the last two decades, and they were very aware of what they were doing.  Heck, I bet most Democrats on this forum are HAPPY they don't win the Deep South anymore.

[Mr. Illini]

Democrats created their problems in the Deep South over the last two decades, and they were very aware of what they were doing.  Heck, I bet most Democrats on this forum are HAPPY they don't win the Deep South anymore.

Considering that most Democrats here are from the north and most people in the north (rightfully) hold a lot of contempt for the south, I'm proud we aren't winning Alabama. I'd like to see electoral pick ups in North Carolina and Georgia, though, just to show how badly we're kicking the sh*t out of the GOP.

[memphis]

Why the presumption that black people are not Southerners? They are a substantial part of the population and they vote too. Yes, most statewide officials are Republican today, off the basis of overwhelming white support, but there are still two parties in existence. That was largely not the case in the South for nearly 100 years. Every single office went every single time to a Democrat, usually running unopposed. The South didn't even pretend to follow a democratic process, and many states disenfranchised the Inks out of poor white people as well. The two dynamics are not at all comparable.

[smoltchanov]

Why the presumption that black people are not Southerners? They are a substantial part of the population and they vote too. Yes, most statewide officials are Republican today, off the basis of overwhelming white support, but there are still two parties in existence. That was largely not the case in the South for nearly 100 years. Every single office went every single time to a Democrat, usually running unopposed. The South didn't even pretend to follow a democratic process, and many states disenfranchised the Inks out of poor white people as well. The two dynamics are not at all comparable.

Of course - Black people are Southerners too. But - there are not any doubts about their loyalty and where it politically goes. They were and will remain solid Demorats except some really rare cases. The matter in question was (and is) "white South and white southerners" and THEIR political behavoir... With the tendencies of last elections Democratic caucuses in southern state legislatures have chance to become almost "Black only". A sort of "voluntarily political segregation"