The previous two posters in your state

[Boston Bread]

Including three posters to get the whole trio of major Ontarian parties:
Ontario election 2018

(blatant paint edit)

Goldwater (PC) 31 seats
Only major change to the PC coalition is stronger support among white exurbaners, and his losses in less libertarian rural southwest and midwestern Ontario are staunched by the fact that his opponents are not particularly appealing there either. Ultimately Goldwater loses as he is painted as too radical but still does better than Hudak since he puts together a more compelling platform and campaign.

Yelnoc (Lib) 55 seats
Yelnoc is able to hold the liberal's urban support and even expand it in areas where populism helped the NDP gain under Horwath. Liberal support stays strong in the crucial suburban seats and the few rural seats where liberals can win. Toronto stays solidly red - the ridings in the city where Goldwater would most outperform Hudak are ironically among the most solidly liberal provincially.

CrabCake (NDP) 21 seats
CrabCake breaks even from the NDP's 2014 total by replacing Windsor West and Sudbury with Davenport and Beaches-East York as he gains the support among downtown progressives Horwath didn't get but loses support outside of downtown because he is perceived as too radical.

Popular vote
Liberal 39%
PC 33% (still extremely inefficient vote)
NDP 21% (NDP vote declines in Lib-PC battlegrounds where they aren't seen as serious)
Green 5%
Other 2% (perhaps Family Coalition could rebound with three social liberal candidates?)

Edit: Realized seat count was 1 off

[Boston Bread]

If Turkisblau is conservative on immigration like iSideWith says, non-white votes in the GTA would let MormDem win narrowly in Ontario.

[Boston Bread]

Including the three previous posters to simulate Ontario's 2.5 party system:
Ontario general election 2022



Red - Lance D. Smith (Liberal, Huron-Bruce MPP)
48 Seats, 35% of the vote

Blue - Rick Fayette (PC, Halton MPP)
36 Seats, 35% of the vote
(Ontario's seat distribution really favours the Liberals provincially)

Orange - LeBron Fitzgerald (NDP, Welland MPP)
23 Seats, 25% of the vote

Others - 5%

The biggest shake-up comes from the Liberals nominating a pro-life leader. This costs the Liberals severely in upper-class suburban and urban areas, with the PCs picking up suburban seats and the NDP urban seats. The PCs nominate a socially liberal leader, who appeals to the centre but loses many pro-lifers to the Liberals. Liberal support remains strong among immigrants who largely don't focus on social issues and they pick up rural southwestern Ontario which is the province's most socially conservative area, allowing the Liberals to form a minority government. With NDP support, Smith's Liberals are able to implement the large expansions to the social safety net he campaigned on.