WI-Marquette: Walker up 7

[Senator Cris]

Walker (R) 48%
Burke (D) 41%

Polling was conducted March 20 to 23

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

[Maxwell]

I have a feeling Walker will win narrowly, but this race will always be close due to Walker's controversial nature (doing very conservative things in a center left state).

[Gass3268]

Lots of interesting stuff in the poll that could bring about a closer race, but I still suspect Walker to win.

[krazen1211]

Marquette was a star pollster in the recall election.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Marquette was a star pollster in the recall election.

sure, less than a month before the election. their other poll was six points off.

[Maxwell]

Marquette was a star pollster in the recall election.

sure, less than a month before the election. their other poll was six points off.

Aren't most polls off from the final result though, due to campaigning?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Marquette was a star pollster in the recall election.

sure, less than a month before the election. their other poll was six points off.

Aren't most polls off from the final result though, due to campaigning?

'fcourse. which is why we shouldn't be paying too much attention to polls at all yet. (see also, the h. clinton circlejerk)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another GOP gov in the Midwest in addt.to Corbett will go down. If Rassy has this as the first poll out, and have it tied, Walker is in jeopordy.

[SPC]

I still suspect Walker to wi.

Pun intended?

[henster]

His approval rating has fallen sharply from the last poll to 47-47 down from 51-42 in January.

[Bull Moose Base]

I still suspect Walker to wi.

Pun intended?

What's the pun? "wi" or "suspect"?

[pbrower2a]

The e-mail scandal hasn't hit yet.

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Democrats can still hit him on that.  What was he hiding? Why the secrecy?

[IceSpear]

Looks much more realistic than Rasmussen's poll. Still Lean R, for now...

[Deus Naturae]

The e-mail scandal hasn't hit yet.

The scandal broke, what, like a month ago? How long do you expect it to take?

[DrScholl]

Once Burke's name recognition goes up, the numbers will improve. Rasmussen showed a tie and they almost never show Republican incumbents in competitive races.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is much better than I expected actually. I was anticipating Marquette to come in between Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing. I don't think Walker will win by 7, but I do think he'll win(~51-48ish).

[TJ in Oregon]

The e-mail scandal hasn't hit yet.

The scandal broke, what, like a month ago? How long do you expect it to take?

I don't think anyone really cares who wasn't already going to vote against Walker regardless. Walker's favorability is at 49-47 with only 5% who aren't sure. For better or worse, almost everyone in Wisconsin has an opinion on Walker already, and it'd an awful lot to change it much by this point. The emails may make some campaign fodder, but the Democrats already have been saying Walker is basically Satan anyway (although Burke has stayed away from it), so I'm not sure there's really a level beyond that.

[Linus Van Pelt]

For what it's worth, with the usual caveats:

18-29 Walker 42-36
30-44 Walker 53-40
45-59 Walker 47-42
60+ Walker 48-44

under $40k Burke 44-42
$40k-$74k Walker 49-43
$75k+ Walker 54-39

Republican Walker 91-5
Democrat Burke 76-13
Independent Walker 49-21

male Walker 52-37
female 44-44

white Walker 51-39
black Burke 68-6
Hispanic Burke 56-41

City of Milwaukee Burke 66-21 (all the rest refer to media markets, which are larger than metros)
rest of Milwaukee Walker 55-38
Madison Burke 53-33
Green Bay/Appleton Walker 56-34
rest of state Walker 54-31

[SPC]

I still suspect Walker to wi.

Pun intended?

What's the pun? "wi" or "suspect"?

WI was the typo in the sentence.

[Joshgreen]

This race will tighten as Burke gets better known, but Walker has a clear advantage. Lean Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race will tighten as Burke gets better known, but Walker has a clear advantage. Lean Republican.

Walker doesn't have a clear advantage, just like in the case for IL and OH, we have yet to see a PPP poll on this race.

[pbrower2a]

This race will tighten as Burke gets better known, but Walker has a clear advantage. Lean Republican.

Walker doesn't have a clear advantage, just like in the case for IL and OH, we have yet to see a PPP poll on this race.

Walker's advantage is superior funding from out-of-state interests.

[sg0508]

If you've learned anything about WI, always add 2-3 points to the Democrats' final polling numbers. They ALWAYS close well, usually due to Same Day Reg.  In 2004, this is what nipped Bush there.  In 2010, it ALMOST got Feingold back in office and trimmed Walker's victory.

[SPC]

If you've learned anything about WI, always add 2-3 points to the Democrats' final polling numbers. They ALWAYS close well, usually due to Same Day Reg.  In 2004, this is what nipped Bush there.  In 2010, it ALMOST got Feingold back in office and trimmed Walker's victory.

Except when they don't?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you've learned anything about WI, always add 2-3 points to the Democrats' final polling numbers. They ALWAYS close well, usually due to Same Day Reg.  In 2004, this is what nipped Bush there.  In 2010, it ALMOST got Feingold back in office and trimmed Walker's victory.

Except when they don't?

We certainly don't need Wisc, we need MI moreso for US senate control. It is plausible in addt to PA, that another GOP gov will go down in the Midwest.