John Edwards vs Mark Sanford
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  John Edwards vs Mark Sanford
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Question: Who you'd vote for/Who would win
#1
Edwards/Edwards
 
#2
Edwards/Sanford
 
#3
Sanford/Edwards
 
#4
Sanford/Sanford
 
#5
3rdParty/Edwards
 
#6
3rdParty/Sanford
 
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: John Edwards vs Mark Sanford  (Read 4085 times)
Ebowed
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« on: March 26, 2005, 03:31:30 AM »

Another interesting 2008 match-up.  John Edwards of North Carolina versus South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford.  Option 4 for me.

I believe this would be the first election where both candidates were from the Carolinas. Wink



Sanford 322
Edwards 216

Edwards wouldn't have a chance in North Carolina, or any other Southern state for that matter.  His support of partial-birth abortion would kill him there, as well as gay marriage in Ohio, Oregon, and Missouri.  What does everyone else think?

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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2005, 11:38:20 AM »
« Edited: March 26, 2005, 11:40:21 AM by nickshepDEM »

I think alot of people underestimate John Edwards.  Especially at the top of a presidential ticket where he could use his excellent stump speaking ability, vision, and charm to win over voters.  The more media attention for Edwards the more he will shine.



Edwards - 312
Sanford - 226

edit:  Im being optimistic today.  Wink
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chris allen
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2005, 03:03:23 PM »

Edwards in a narrow victory.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2005, 03:05:37 PM »


A 269-269 tie looks like the most probable outcome this far out IMO.  However there’s a lot of politicing to go.

I don’t think that gay marriage will be an issue in 2008 like it was in 2004.  The various state-level DOMA clones will already be in place and it would take the catalyst of a Federal court/Supreme Court ruling that a gay marriage in one State had to be recognized in all the others to make it an issue in 2008.  I don’t anticipate such a ruling, in part because if were to be made, it would indeed have the political effect of energizing the GOP base, so I doubt if such a ruling would be sought.

As a side note, I think the events of the past week have ended any chance of Jeb being the nominee in 2008.  The hyper-evangelicals will not be happy with Jeb for not engaging in extra-legal activities to save Terri.  A Jeb in 2008 nomination would need their solid support, even if he changes his mind about not seeking the nomination in 2008.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2005, 03:15:43 PM »

I'd write-in John Ewards.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2005, 03:17:10 PM »


I think he might get an electoral vote or two!
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2005, 03:22:17 PM »


John L. Kerry. Wink
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2005, 03:41:18 PM »



Edwards   342
Sanford   196
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Jake
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2005, 03:43:33 PM »

West Virginia is the Democrat's Vermont.  You can no longer win it, especially with a social liberal like Edwards.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2005, 04:52:54 PM »

West Virginia is the Democrat's Vermont.  You can no longer win it, especially with a social liberal like Edwards.

John Edwards has a way of speaking and communicating that makes him appear more socially conservative than he really is.  I think he would have a decent shot at picking off West Virginia.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2005, 05:01:21 PM »

West Virginia is the Democrat's Vermont.  You can no longer win it, especially with a social liberal like Edwards.

No... the Democrats Vermont (ie: collapsing organisation yadda, yadda, yadda) is probably somewhere in the Deep South.
With WV the problem is the rift between the national Democrats and the state Party (which is itself divided into several warring factions, as in Rahall v Hechler) combined with the misguided decision of most national candidates to try to peel of liberal Republican voters in the middle suburbs. Social liberals do fine in statewide elections (every time Rockefeller runs for re-election that tag gets thrown at him. And every time he runs for re-election he wins a landslide) if they co-operate with local Party/UMW bosses and campaign hard on basic economic issues (especially if they can add a moral twist to them).

Interestingly, West Virginia is one of only a handful of states where Dean would have done better than Kerry (although he wouldn't have won it unless he won the national election) as built up some solid links with some big players in WV politics and couldn't be touched on guns.

As for Edwards... it depends. If he campaigned like he did during his Presidential bid (ie: poverty being a moral issue that something must be done about) he'd have had a great chance of winning the state, but if he was the Kerry imitation he were during the campaign, he'd do pretty badly (but better than Kerry).
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2005, 05:39:24 PM »

It's incredible how someone with no qualifications besides a do nothing, one term senator such as John Edwards can be so popular...
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No more McShame
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2005, 06:09:08 PM »

Sanford wins more comfortably than Bush did



Sanford 52% 290 EV
Edwards 47% 248 EV

Edwards barely holds on to Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to only lose New Hampshire.

Sanford gains ground in Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio from '04.  Hense the wider PV difference without the huge swing in the EV.
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2005, 12:51:51 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2005, 12:55:37 AM by George W. Bush »




I think It would be a much bigger win for the GOP. Sanford is a much better candidate than Bush, He dosent have to worry about his family or being involved in the Iraq War. He is also a much better speaker than Bush.
Edwards is also not as god as kerry, He has a fraction of the experience, Many people think he is fake and he would lose some of the NE and would not help at all in the south.
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Rob
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2005, 03:11:14 AM »

Sanford/Sanford.
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opebo
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2005, 07:29:27 AM »




I think It would be a much bigger win for the GOP. Sanford is a much better candidate than Bush, He dosent have to worry about his family or being involved in the Iraq War. He is also a much better speaker than Bush.
Edwards is also not as god as kerry, He has a fraction of the experience, Many people think he is fake and he would lose some of the NE and would not help at all in the south.

It is ridiculous to have Oregon, Maine, or Michigan going GOP in 2008.  Here's a more realistic map:

And a best case scenario for Sanford:
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A18
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2005, 07:31:12 AM »

Um, no. Compare 1988 with 1992. Things change.

Michigan was super-close.
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2005, 01:25:35 PM »

Opebo, You first map is NOT realistic at all. As I said Kerry was MUCH better than Edwards and Sanford better than Bush. So that map would never happen.
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opebo
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2005, 07:16:09 AM »

Opebo, You first map is NOT realistic at all. As I said Kerry was MUCH better than Edwards and Sanford better than Bush. So that map would never happen.

Honestly I don't see how any other Southern Right-wing Relgious can be 'better than Bush'.  Bush had the 9/11/knee-jerk patriotism/warmongering thing going for him, and I don't see that lasting forever.  I think there will be very significant theocrat fatigue by 2008.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2005, 11:13:27 AM »

It's incredible how someone with no qualifications besides a do nothing, one term senator such as John Edwards can be so popular...

the same is true of Norm Coleman
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2005, 12:20:10 PM »

Opebo, You first map is NOT realistic at all. As I said Kerry was MUCH better than Edwards and Sanford better than Bush. So that map would never happen.

Honestly I don't see how any other Southern Right-wing Relgious can be 'better than Bush'.  Bush had the 9/11/knee-jerk patriotism/warmongering thing going for him, and I don't see that lasting forever.  I think there will be very significant theocrat fatigue by 2008.

Bush also had alot of stuff that could be used aginst him, Like Iraq, His Speaking Style, His IQ.........
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opebo
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« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2005, 01:24:52 PM »

Opebo, You first map is NOT realistic at all. As I said Kerry was MUCH better than Edwards and Sanford better than Bush. So that map would never happen.

Honestly I don't see how any other Southern Right-wing Relgious can be 'better than Bush'.  Bush had the 9/11/knee-jerk patriotism/warmongering thing going for him, and I don't see that lasting forever.  I think there will be very significant theocrat fatigue by 2008.

Bush also had alot of stuff that could be used aginst him, Like Iraq, His Speaking Style, His IQ.........

Oh I think that worked to his advantage as the enormous intellectually-challenged vote went to Bush.  They thought Kerry was hoity-toity for pronouncing nuclear correctly.

And obviously Iraq also worked in Bush's favour, as the same group of people who says 'nooculer' thought it was Iraq that knocked down those buildings. 
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2005, 03:17:24 PM »

Opebo, You first map is NOT realistic at all. As I said Kerry was MUCH better than Edwards and Sanford better than Bush. So that map would never happen.

Honestly I don't see how any other Southern Right-wing Relgious can be 'better than Bush'.  Bush had the 9/11/knee-jerk patriotism/warmongering thing going for him, and I don't see that lasting forever.  I think there will be very significant theocrat fatigue by 2008.

Bush also had alot of stuff that could be used aginst him, Like Iraq, His Speaking Style, His IQ.........

Oh I think that worked to his advantage as the enormous intellectually-challenged vote went to Bush.  They thought Kerry was hoity-toity for pronouncing nuclear correctly.

And obviously Iraq also worked in Bush's favour, as the same group of people who says 'nooculer' thought it was Iraq that knocked down those buildings. 

"I would think Bush's campaign could afford to hire quite a bit of help.  I would be looking not for a lot of money, just enough so that I could postpone looking for a 'real job' for a few months.  "--opebo, jan. 26, 2004

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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #23 on: March 28, 2005, 06:33:48 PM »




I think It would be a much bigger win for the GOP. Sanford is a much better candidate than Bush, He dosent have to worry about his family or being involved in the Iraq War. He is also a much better speaker than Bush.
Edwards is also not as god as kerry, He has a fraction of the experience, Many people think he is fake and he would lose some of the NE and would not help at all in the south.







I agree, though I think that the GOP piks up MN also.
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #24 on: March 28, 2005, 06:36:21 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2005, 06:39:51 PM by nickshepDEM »


John Edwards was responsible for Kerry winning Wisconsin, IMO.  Without Edwards I believe John Kerry would have lost Wisconsin.  He would have also lost just about every other state by a larger margin (besides the extremley partisan democratic states).
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