March 2014 At-Large Special Senate Election - ELECTION TRACKER

[Maxwell]

Final Match-Ups (As of Polnut)

Simfan (TPP-CA) - 56%
Alfred F. Jones (Lab-NY) - 44%

Simfan (TPP-CA) - 74%
Deus (DR-NY) - 26%

Alfred F. Jones (Lab-NY) - 67%
Deus (DR-NY) - 33%

Votes: 40

*Italics represent potential match-ups.

[Maxwell]

This a fun race so far, though my best guess would probably be Senator Alfred F. Jones.

[Maxwell]

This a fun race so far, though my best guess would probably be Senator Alfred F. Jones.

I don't see any reason to think that. Simfan will win the voters of every major party besides Labor- he's probably a solid favorite.

It all depends on that next to final round whether it's Alfred v. Simfan or Alfred v. Deus.

[Maxwell]

As of Zanas:

Final Match-Ups:

Simfan (TPP-CA) - 60%
Alfred (Lab-NY) - 40%

Simfan (TPP-CA) - 72%
Deus (DR-NY) - 28%

Alfred (Lab-NY) - 56%
Deus (DR-NY) - 44%

Votes: 55

This shows what we've already seen: here's the next to final round:

Alfred (Lab-NY) - 38%
Simfan (TPP-CA) - 33%
Deus (DR-NY) - 29%

[Maxwell]

Votes: 65
As of: Rooney

First Round:
Alfred - 23
Deus - 17
Simfan - 15
WI: JCL - 6
WI: Poirot - 3
WI: EarlAW - 1

EarlAW is eliminated, his preference is transferred to Poirot.

Second Round:
Alfred - 23
Deus - 17
Simfan - 15
WI: JCL- 6
WI: Poirot - 4

Poirot is eliminated, his four votes transfer 2 to Al, 1 to JCL, and 1 to Simfan

Third Round:
Alfred - 25
Deus - 17
Simfan - 16
WI: JCL - 7

JCL is eliminated, his votes transfer 4 to Simfan, 3 to Deus

Fourth Round:
Alfred - 25
Deus - 20
Simfan - 20

Simfan is eliminated, his votes transfer 9 to Alfred, 10 to Deus, and 1 to Exhausted.

Fifth Round:
Alfred - 34 - 53%
Deus - 30 - 47%

In this match, Alfred wins narrowly. Let's look at the other possible match-ups in the final round:

Simfan - 37 - 60%
Alfred - 25 - 40%

Simfan - 41 - 65%
Deus - 22 - 35%

[Maxwell]

Next to last round:
27 - Alfred (39%)
22 - Simfan (32%)
20 - Deus (29%)

Last round:
39 - Simfan (59%)
27 - Alfred (41%)

Other Possibilities:
44 - Simfan (67%)
22 - Deus (33%)

36 - Alfred (54%)
31 - Deus (46%)

[Maxwell]

As a representative of Based God Polling, I am hoping we can get back to a message of togetherness.

[Maxwell]

First Round:
28 Alfred
22 Deus
18 Simfan
7 JCL
3 Poirot
1 EarlAW

Next to Last Round:
30 Alfred
25 Deus
24 Simfan

Final Round:
39 Alfred
37 Deus

Alternate Scenarios:
43 Simfan
31 Alfred

47 Simfan
28 Deus

[Maxwell]

I have Alfred at 29 and Simfan at 25 in the next to last round.

I'm trying to see where I missed a Simfan vote, but I'm realizing Bmotely's vote is invalid.

[Maxwell]

I have Alfred at 29 and Simfan at 25 in the next to last round.

I'm trying to see where I missed a Simfan vote, but I'm realizing Bmotely's vote is invalid.

is it?  why?

Because he registered the day before the election, and isn't there a 7 day waiting period?

[Maxwell]

What about now?

Well, right now, you have a lead over Deus in the next to final round, and clean Alfred's clock in the last round (59%-41%).

[Maxwell]

Next to last:
34 Alfred
26 Simfan
25 Deus

Deus is eliminated, 19 go to Simfan, 1 goes to Alfred, 5 exhausted.

Last:
45 Simfan
35 Alfred
5 Exhausted

Others:
50 Simfan
28 Deus
7 Exhausted

45 Alfred
37 Deus
3 Exhausted

[Maxwell]

It's still a complete toss-up between Alfred and Simfan. Simfan would beat Alfred 53%-47%, but Alfred would beat Deus 54%-46%, and the next to final round is damn close (Deus only beats Simfan due to first prefs)

If Simfan-Deus had made it to the final round, then Simfan would beat him 62%-38%.

[Maxwell]

Maxwell, how does that translate in terms of raw votes? I know there are a good number of exhausted votes in each situation.

Simfan - 48
Alfred - 42

Simfan - 54
Deus - 33

Alfred - 50
Deus - 42

[Maxwell]

Maxwell, how does that translate in terms of raw votes? I know there are a good number of exhausted votes in each situation.

Simfan - 48
Alfred - 42

Simfan - 54
Deus - 33

Alfred - 50
Simfan - 42

That 3rd one is Alfred/Deus, right?

yes

[Maxwell]

First Round
38 - Alfred
27 - Deus
26 - Simfan
9 - JCL
3 - Poirot
1- EarlAW

Poirot and EarlAW are eliminated

Second Round
40 - Alfred
27 - Simfan
27 - Deus
10 - JCL

JCL is eliminated.

Third Round
40 - Alfred
33 - Simfan
31 - Deus

Deus is eliminated

Fourth Round
52 - Simfan
45 - Alfred

Potential Rounds:
52 - Alfred
47 - Deus

[Maxwell]

Forgot we have more time.

[Maxwell]

I hope you include the fact that Gass's vote doesn't count because he was five minutes late.

[Maxwell]

I hope you include the fact that Gass's vote doesn't count because he was five minutes late.

My vote was at 09:05:49 am and voting closed at 9:08:50 EDT. I don't see where I was five minutes late.

I thought it was 9:00 straight up my bad.