2004 Presidential Election and Beyond: The Giuliani Years (GAME THREAD)

[Donerail]

Edwards appearance on ABC News

Terry Moran: And next, for a look at the upcoming primaries, we turn to one of the men in the center of it all, former North Carolina Senator and the National Director of One America PAC, John Edwards. John, welcome to the show.

John Edwards: Great to be here, Terry.

Moran: Let's get straight to it: do you think the Democrats can take the Senate this year?

Edwards: Of course we can - we have quality candidates, Harold Ford in Tennessee, Jim Webb in Virginia, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and several others that would allow us to flip the Senate. The Republicans are definitely playing defense.

Moran: I wanted to talk about that, actually. The Senate Conservatives Fund is buying in big in races like Florida and West Virginia - any thoughts there?

Edwards: I think West Virginia is undeniably shifting to the right, looking at how they've voted the past couple Presidential elections, as well as Republicans picking up judgeships and state offices there. But those ripples of the national mood, I don't think they affect West Virginia as much. Senator Byrd won his eighth term with 78% of the vote in 2000, Joe Manchin's still Governor, we still hold the majority of their House seats and both chambers of their legislature. Byrd is significantly popular in the state, and I don't think they'll throw out someone who, when we take back then Senate, will be Appropriations Chair. As for Florida, understandably it's a more volatile state, but I have faith in Bill Nelson - he's a known quantity in the state, a lot of state service, pretty popular both statewide and in the Orlando area, a key swing region and where he's from. We beat Bill McCollum once, and he still has a primary to go through before we beat him again.

Moran: You seem pretty confident in holding those two seats. What about holding Maryland?

Edwards: I'm confident that Ben Cardin can get it done - he's got the backing of a lot of major organizations. Michael Steele's definitely a strong candidate, but Maryland is Maryland, and Ben'll pull it out in the end.

Moran: Recent polls have shown several of your candidates down, sometimes down big - Jim Webb's down 9, Harold Ford 6, Claire McCaskill 4. Do you think you can make that up by election day with big donors entering to support the Republicans?

Edwards: Absolutely. Tennessee hasn't chosen a Republican nominee yet, but whoever emerges among Hilleary, Bryant, and Corker will have gone through a vicious primary, while we're united behind Ford, whose fundraising is strong and poll numbers are competitive. Missouri too is very close, as we knew it would be, given how close it was when Talent won his first time. Missouri's a bellwether, but Claire's an experienced candidate, a known quantity, and Talent's on the record as opposing the minimum wage increase, and hasn't really done much in the Senate besides his stem cell legislation. Jim Webb in Virginia is behind right now, but I'm confident we can make it up - Jim's long record of military service and his credibility on that issue will carry us through.

Moran: Join us after the break to hear John's take on several key elections for Governor.


Moran: Welcome back. John Edwards and I are discussing his party's prospects in the midterms. So, John, you've made a few interesting fundraising decisions recently, including allocating a significant amount of funds to support candidates in South Carolina and Texas, states that weren't really on the Democratic radar. Why is this?

Edwards: It seems unconventional, sure, but you have to make these kinds of gambles, and I think these races could have a big payoff. In South Carolina, you have the incumbent facing a significant primary challenge and having a lot of discontent, even among Republicans, because of his spending cuts, and Democrats there have nominated Tommy Moore, who has a record of leadership in the legislature, who has these socially conservative but fiscally moderate positions in line with South Carolina's mainstream, focusing on business growth and helping rural areas. We've got a good shot there. Texas, we're gambling that it's an open field there - an unpopular incumbent Republican, a former Congressman with a strong record on ethics and education - that's a good formula right there, but then there's also a conservative Comptroller running as an independent, there's a Libertarian on the ballot, and there's whatever effect Kinky Friedman will have - point is, it's anybody's game.

Moran: Alright. Recent polls have shown you doing well in Maryland and Arkansas, are you confident you can hang on there with the recent infusion of money from the Freedom Project?

Edwards: Martin O'Malley's running a solid campaign, he's a pragmatic guy, done a good job running and making progress in Baltimore, and I'm confident Maryland's voters will recognize his hard work and skill in government. As for Mike Beebe, polls there have us in front by a wide margin.

Moran: One final question before I let you go, and it's Florida. Can you pull off the win?

Edwards: The primary there looks like it's going to be really bloody between Crist and Gallagher, but yeah, I think we can do it. We beat Tom Gallagher twice already, after all, Jim Davis can do it again.

Moran: So where are you off to now?

Edwards: I'm going to be stumping personally for my good friends Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler, who have competitive races in my home state, before going to an event for Tommy Moore. As for my co-workers, Mark Warner will be working very closely with Jim Webb, as well as Phil Kellam's campaign for Congress in Virginia Beach. Sam Nunn will be working on keeping Jim Marshall and John Barrow's seats in Congress, and Chet Edwards, besides his own re-election, will be working with Chris Bell, Nick Lampson, and Ciro Rodriguez. We're all going to be very busy and personally giving it our all this election cycle, because, from Florida to Kentucky, these targeted seats are what makes or breaks our majority.

Moran: Alright, I won't keep you then. Good luck!

Edwards: My pleasure, and thank you.

[PPT Spiral]

Smith PAC to help out Republicans nationwide

Although Bob Smith and his Freedom Fighters PAC have largely operated within New Hampshire this year, Smith announced that he will invest in advertising for Republican candidates in different states as a final boost going into the midterm elections. Among the Republicans who will be assisted by the PAC include:

Senatorial
MO - Senator Jim Talent
PA - Senator Rick Santorum
TX - Congressman Ron Paul
VA - Senator George Allen

Gubernatorial
AK - Mayor Sarah Palin
ID - Congressman Butch Otter
MI - Mr. Dick DeVos
NH - State Representative Jim Coburn

Smith critical of Giuliani, stirs up 2008 speculation

Bob Smith is no stranger to controversy and has a knack for attracting attention. This was the case earlier this week, after finishing a speech for Jim Coburn's gubernatorial campaign in New Hampshire. When asked by a reporter over President Rudy Giuliani's performance and the direction the country is headed, Smith questioned whether "the nation elected a Democrat and we didn't know it." Smith asserted that Giuliani has been insufficiently conservative on key issues. "Look, I think the President has been doing wonderful on the War on Terror," Smith said, "but if you glance at his record in office over the minimum wage, federal regulations and subsidies, and his rather liberal bent on social issues, there's a lot to question there." The former Senator from New Hampshire added that President Giuliani's State of the Union address this year did not quell these fears and only reinforced his viewpoint. "When you go to the American people and talk about giving money to energy companies that may soon go under or further regulating our markets, that won't sit well with everyone."

These statements prompted the reporter to ask whether Smith himself is considering challenging the incumbent President in the primaries next year. "I can't say that I'm dead set on that," Smith replied. "I can think of plenty of other, less stressful things to do with my time than to wage another presidential campaign." Whether or not he runs, Smith was confident that Giuliani would receive some sort of challenger from his right. "I see Jim DeMint out there and he's making sense on a lot of issues. I believe he could gain traction, no doubt." Smith is confident that the Republican Party will come around to his side and begin nominating more conservative candidates across the country. "It takes a lot of effort, but we can push ourselves out there and we can win. I've done it in New Hampshire, and many others have done it as well."

[DKrol]

Karl Rove Appearance on CNN



Wolf Blitzer: We just had Senator Jim DeMint openly discuss a primary challenge to President Giuliani. To respond, here's White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove. Karl, welcome to the Situation Room.
Karl Rove: Thank you, Wolf.
Blitzer: Karl, Senator DeMint said that he probably won't challenge President Giuliani in 2008. What'd you say to that?
Rove: The fact that he didn't categorically deny it, shows that he's going to - or he's atleast giving it a serious thought. And I say let him. We won in 2004 with the most electoral college votes of any Republican since George H.W. Bush's landslide in 1988. The President has an approval rating in the 60s. To challenge him would be political suicide.
Blitzer: What about former New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith?
Rove: Is Bob still in New Hampshire? Look, Bob lost the Republican nomination for President in  2000, he lost the nomination for Senate in New Hampshire, he moved to Florida and lost the nomination there. Bob Smith just wants to have his name in the papers. If he runs against the President in 2008, he won't win. As someone who's run many campaigns, I'll be honest with you - Bob Smith is a bad candidate.
Blitzer: Strong words from the White House Chief of Staff. Thank you, Karl.
Rove: Thanks, Wolf.

[Maxwell]

Senator Rick Santorum - The controversial figure turning his campaign around


Pictured: Senator Santorum, giving them hell in a new speech

Western Pennslyvania - There are many competitive Senate races in this year, not the least of which is in Pennsylvania - Senator Richard Santorum sees both a tough primary challenge from Former Governor Tom Ridge, who has notable endorsements from Secretary Gary Johnson and President Rudy Giuliani, and a tough general election challenge from State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr, son of former pro-life Democratic Governor Bob Casey.

Nevertheless, giving up has never been a part of Santorum's vocabulary. Rather, he's been fighting both hard. He's targeted Ridge's pro-choice voices and moderate tendencies as a 'no go' in a Republican primary. He's also put Ridge as a stooge for the President, an interesting divide in what seems to be a hardening conservative rage toward Giuliani.

Or is it more rage for established Washington? What's ironic is that Santorum is the one who is working in Washington, and yet he's turning his rage toward the inefficiencies of Washington. You go to a Santorum speech and you see him unravel, talking about big issues and how conservative voters aren't being represented, making obvious points to Washington, and making sure that Ridge's views reflect those of Washington.

When asked, the Santorum campaign cited recent internals that their fall is turning around, and primary polls still have the incumbent Senator in good regards with GOP voters. "Santorum may be in trouble with the overall electorate, but Republicans still really like him. Even with Tom Ridge, he's not going to lose". The latest poll had Ridge within 15 points, trailing Santorum 53-41, with a random pro-life activist hanging around 1%.

One more sign of turning fortunes for Santorum is a big ad buy from the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group led by insurgent Senator Jim DeMint. Santorum, a co-sponsor of DeMint's Border Security Bill, has fought hard on mainline conservative issues and this ad buy puts him back into a fighting shot in a very contentious Republican primary.

[NHI]

Hypothetical General Election Polling: 2008

Giuliani v. Democrats

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+7)

John Edwards: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)

Barack Obama: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+8)

Evan Bayh: 43%

Rudy Giuliani: 56% (+17)

Phil Bredesen: 39%

DeMint v. Democrats

John Edwards: 45%

Jim DeMint: 45%

Evan Bayh: 48% (+5)

Jim DeMint: 43%

Barack Obama: 45% (+5)

Jim DeMint: 40%

Hillary Clinton: 48% (+6)

Jim DeMint: 42%

Jim DeMint: 45% (+6)

Phil Bredesen: 39%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (DeMint)

Rudy Giuliani: 79%

Jim DeMint: 12%

Undecided: 9%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 89%

Bob Smith: 6%

Undecided: 5%

Hypothetical Republican Primary: 2008 (DeMint & Smith)

Rudy Giuliani: 76%

Jim DeMint: 13%

Bob Smith: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Hypothetical Democratic Primary: 2008

Hillary Clinton: 20%

John Edwards: 18%

Evan Bayh: 14%
Barack Obama: 13%
Phil Bredesen: 7%
Undecided: 28%

Generic Midterm Ballot: 2006

Republican: 48% (+3)

Democrat: 45%

Undecided/Other: 7%

2006 Primaries to Watch:

Alaska Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Frank Murkowski: 40%

Sarah Palin: 35%

John Binkley: 17%

Undecided/Other: 8%

Texas Senate (Republican Primary)

Ron Paul: 41%

Bil Ratliff: 38%

Undecided/Other: 21%

New York Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Donald Trump: 48%

John Faso: 37%
Undecided/Other: 15%

Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)

Tom Ridge: 46%

Rick Santorum: 44%

Undecided/Other: 10%

Florida Gubernatorial (Republican Primary)

Charlie Crist: 47%

Tom Gallagher: 44%
Undecided/Other: 9%

I will post results to the above primaries on Wednesday; are there any other races people would like posted?

BTW great job everyone, this is continuing to go well!

[PPT Spiral]

Bob Smith at a press conference in Nashua, NH

I find it funny how Giuliani's team sent Karl Rove out to call me a joke. It was Karl who promised me privately that I would have the support of then-President Bush during my reelection campaign in 2002, but they showed their true colors when they never held up on that and instead supported my opponent, Mr. Sununu. Let's not talk about grudges here, though. This whole situation is about whether I'm going to challenge the President in the primaries, and I can tell all of you right now that I honestly don't know. I have gotten encouragement from others to run, but I have not decided myself. My focus is on the midterm elections and making sure that Republicans have strong performances across the country. I'll be spending most of my time campaigning here in New Hampshire, and any decision from me about launching a presidential campaign will come next year.

[Lumine]

Trumpmania: The Road to the Primary:

New York State, February to May, 2006:
Leading the primary polls and having both the support of the President and conservative leaders like Senator DeMint, Trump is confident of victory in the primary, and he continues to tour the state and make his case while using his financial advantages to damage both John Faso and Eliot Spitzer, his likely rivals in the primary and general election.

Unorthodox? Sure. Controversial? Of course. Out of his element? Not really. Ever since Donald Trump announced that he would indeed seek office he has been incredibly active, making the effort of meeting with as many Republican voters as he can to increase support for the primary and prove that he can lead a united New York GOP to victory against the Democrats. Mr. Trump has also been embraced by many key members of the party, having the endorsement of both President Giuliani and Senator Jim DeMint, something that has helped him a great deal to halt John Faso's momentum as a conservative challenger and increase his lead for the primary, which polls showing him with an eleven point lead and very close to 50%. The fact that he can outspend Faso and the other challengers also helps, and while the Trump campaign has tried not to divide the party ads have been released to show that Faso doesn't have the right kind of leadership for New York, and that his past as a lobbyist and his long time in Albany don't make him the more credible voice for reform. But more than John Faso, Mr. Trump has recognized Eliot Spitzer as the key threat, launching a series of ads to sow dissent among the Democratic ranks and weaken Spitzer's image, using a rumored scandal regarding campaign contributions in 1998 as a prime weapon. Trump's experience in the business sector has been used as an asset by the campaign in order to portray him as the right man to lead the state and encourage growth while balancing the budget and making life easier for many citizens, but it remains to be seen if Mr. Trump's credibility among the voters can reach the level of name recognition he has. In the meantime, "the Donald" continues to campaign hard in order to win the Republican nomination.

[PPT Spiral]

Could you give us polls for the Alabama Republican gubernatorial primary and for a New York gubernatorial race with Trump as the Republican nominee?

[Maxwell]

Freedomworks: Giuliani not a sure bet for re-nomination

The President's recent state of the union turned some heads when he announced he would be allocating federal resources toward green energies. Particularly heads within his own party, who are skeptical of those resources and their viability. Increasing on the image that the President isn't exactly the party's favorite, some Republican groups are actively searching for a candidate. The leader of Freedomworks, Former Congressman Dick Armey, an endorser of his major opponent in the primary in 2004, was livid in a recent interview with Fox News, giving the notable quote of "he's not even our President"

Freedomworks has also criticized the President's increase of the Housing Deduction, calling it an expansion of the current Housing Bubble. At the moment, those claims are certainly in the minority, with other conservative groups backing the Presidents efforts in that field. But ultimately, Freedomworks and another notable group, Americans for Prosperity, are determined to make their opposition known.

[Potus]

OOC: Progress report on the Surge?

[Lumine]

Could you give us polls for the Alabama Republican gubernatorial primary and for a New York gubernatorial race with Trump as the Republican nominee?

I second this! (I'm really curious to see if Trump can even make it close considering the landslide Spitzer had against Faso)

[NHI]

Could you give us polls for the Alabama Republican gubernatorial primary and for a New York gubernatorial race with Trump as the Republican nominee?

Hypothetical New York Gubernatorial Election: 2006

Eliot Spitzer: 47%

Donald Trump: 43%

Undecided: 10%

Alabama Gubernatorial Primary: 2006

Bob Reilly (inc) 53%

Roy Moore: 40%
Undecided: 7%

[NHI]

OOC: Progress report on the Surge?

In next update, promise!

[Lumine]

Trumpmentum! Thanks, NHI!

[NHI]

Trumpmentum! Thanks, NHI!

Not a problem!

[NHI]

Other Gubernatorial Election Polls: 2006

New Hampshire: Solid Democrat

John Lynch: 73%

Jim Coburn: 23%

Massachusetts: Lean Democrat

Deval Patrick: 50%

Kerry Healey: 43%

Maine: Tossup

John Baldacci: 31%

Peter Mills: 30%

(I) Barbara Merrill: 20%
(G) Pat LaMarche: 9%

Minnesota: Lean Republican

Tim Pawlenty: 47%

Mike Hatch: 42%

California: Solid Republican

Arnold Schwarzenegger: 50%

Phil Angelides: 38%

[NHI]

Hypothetical NH Primary Poll: 2008 (Democrats)

Hillary Clinton: 21%
John Edwards: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Evan Bayh: 10%
Barack Obama: 9%
Phil Bredesen: 5%
Undecided/Other: 19%

Hypothetical NH Primary Poll: 2008 (Republicans)

Rudy Giuliani: 87%
Bob Smith: 6%
Undecided/Other: 7%

Republicans: With DeMint

Rudy Giuliani: 86%
Jim DeMint: 8%
Undecided: 4%

Republicans: With DeMint and Smith

Rudy Giuliani: 89%
Bob Smith: 5%
Jim DeMint: 3%
Undecided: 4%

[Maxwell]

How the hell is DeMint behind Bob Smith now? DeMint is actually the one in the Senate, doing stuff, having influence.

[DKrol]

How the hell is DeMint behind Bob Smith now? DeMint is actually the one in the Senate, doing stuff, having influence.

The poll's in New Hampshire, Smith's quasi-home state.

[NHI]

How the hell is DeMint behind Bob Smith now? DeMint is actually the one in the Senate, doing stuff, having influence.

The polls in New Hampshire, Smith's quasi-home state.

[Maxwell]

How the hell is DeMint behind Bob Smith now? DeMint is actually the one in the Senate, doing stuff, having influence.

The polls in New Hampshire, Smith's quasi-home state.

Derp. Thanks.

[PPT Spiral]

Bill Weld is back!

Bill Weld, the former Governor of Massachusetts, surprised political observers by announcing a political comeback to seek his old job. Weld is running against acting Governor Kerry Healey, who was promoted to the position following Mitt Romney's departure to the Treasury Department. Weld stated that he "is fighting for the people of Massachusetts once again," and that he "sees better days ahead for all of us." When discussing the primary, Weld said, "I respect Governor Healey immensely, but she cannot win. I have a proven track record of getting people from all sides to come together, and not only have I won decisively as a Republican, but I got things done." Should Weld be victorious in the primary, he is hoping that his fiscal conservatism and social liberalism, along with his popularity, will pull him through in November against Deval Patrick, the likely Democratic nominee.

[NHI]

Massachusetts: Republican Primary

Kerry Healey (inc) 48%
Bill Weld: 41%
Undecided/Other: 11%

Hypothetical Massachusetts: Gubernatorial Election

Deval Patrick: 50%

Bill Weld: 44%

Approval Rating: Acting Governor Kerry Healey

Approve: 48%

Disapprove: 43%

Undecided/Other: 9%

----

New Hampshire Congressional Races: Polls

Congressional District 1: Lean Republican

Jeb Bradley (inc) 49%

Carol Shea-Porter: 42%

Congressional District 2: Lean Republican

Charlie Bass: 48%

Paul Hodes: 41%

[DKrol]

Statement from the Office of the President of the United States
White House Press Secretary Chris Wallace

In April of 2000, then-Mayor Rudy Giuliani was diagnosed with prostate cancer. He went through a very aggressive and thorough care plan that included hormonal therapy and radiotherapy. Since then he has been free from cancer and in great health. However, every other year he must undergo an in-depth screening process, which includes a biopsy, to ensure that there has been no return of the cancer. The President is put under anesthesia and is put into hospital care over night.

Tomorrow, the President will travel to the National Naval Medical Center to undergo one of these screening procedures. The procedure will be jointly performed by Brigadier General Richard Tubb, USAF, the White House Physician and Dr. Hedvig Hricak of the  Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. The President and his family expect the President to receive a clean bill of health following the screening.

President Giuliani has willing invoked Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, to take effect at noon tomorrow, transferring the powers of the Presidency to Vice President Kay Hutchison as the Acting President until he can resume his duties. This is in order with precedent, as seen during various points in the Reagan administration. Vice President Hutchison said that she intends to sit behind the C&O Desk, "maybe play with [President Giuliani's] desk toys", and have a conference call with Congressional leaders during her tenure as Acting President.

[NHI]

Three MA Governors Back Weld

Boston-
At a rally on Beacon Hill two former governors Paul Celluci and Ed Kiing and former acting governor Jane Swift endorsed Bill Weld in the Republican Primary over Kerry Healey. Former Governor Paul Celluci called Weld "A transformational governor and the type we need in Massachusetts again." King called Weld a reformer and blasted Healey by name saying "She represents the status quo. She lacks a plan or vision for the commonwealth." Jane Swift called Weld the strongest contender against likely Democratic nominee Deval Patrick. "We need to hold onto The Governors Seat. We need a strong contender against Deval Patrick and Bill Weld is that candidate!"

Healey currently holds a 48 percent approval rating in the state. The latest Boston Globe Poll puts her up only 7 points behind Weld. Against Patrick Healey trails anywhere from 7-10 points. Weld, also trails, but by a closer margin. Taking 44 percent to Patrick's 50.