Saskatchwan General Provencial Election 2003

[Canadian observer]

Polls weren't reliable in Sask 1999 election.  I read somewhere they predicted an NDP victory by a margin of 20% in popular votes.

Chances are it would still be the case in 2003.  Elwin Hermanson, Sask Party leader, criticized the recent polls' reliability on the basis of his own internal polls.

In Canada, during a campaign, it's very rare to see a politician who questions polls' reliability in public.  The last one I remember was Bernard Landry, former Quebec Premier, in 1995 during the referendum campaign.  At that time most polls gave a comfortable lead for the NO, but Landry pointed to YES' own internal polls which put both options closer in terms of votes.

[Canadian observer]

Provincial and federal electoral dynamics are very disconnected in Canada.  eh ! The average Canadian voter likes to split his ticket ;-)

Although provincially Sask is NDP territory , the Canadian Alliance hold 10 of the 14 federal Commons seats of the province.  Except Alberta, the straight ticket phenomenon (which I'd define, in the Canadian sense, as a majority of one province's provincial and federal seats under the same party [or ideology]) is a bit rare.

Currently, we may consider the Ontarian electorate put a straight Liberal ticket in October...  It would surely happen in Quebec next Spring.

[Canadian observer]

The CA is heading for a mauling in Sask next federal election, no matter how well the SP do.
The voters of Sask have decided that they are "establishment"... which means they've had it.
It would take a microscopic swing for the NDP to pick up 2 seats from the CA... and they have other seats on their hit-list as well...

The federal Liberals have their hit-list too... the preys : CA MP's.  The most recent polls put Liberal ahead in all western provinces.  The NDP shouldn't put too high hopes for growth in the West.  Based on what I read, heard (and feel) on the West, they want Paul Martin, not Layton.