Saskatchwan General Provencial Election 2003

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It'll be close(as usual) and will have utterly no impact on the federal scene(as usual).

But anyhow...
The polls indicate a very close contest with the NDP finishing just ahead, but probably reliant on Liberal support(again).

But I don't know. Earlier this year the Sask Party looked clear favourites, but they have squandered the initiative.

Sask is the ONLY provincial election this year I haven't had a "gut feeling" on who is going to win...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exactly. It's WAY too close to call, and another minority/coalition of some description looks likely...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saskatchwan is the province in Canada most likely to vote split.

The federal NDP's best decade in Sask was the '80's... which was their worst provincially.

Saskatchwan is very rural(it's the only province in Canada to not have a single federal urban riding), and it's voters like populist parties, something that the NDP, CA and Sask Party all have in common.

Opinion polls are very rare in Sask(as far as I can find only *2* have been published this year...), and guessing the outcome of elections in Sask is like the "good old days".

Polls are also unreliable when published because people in Sask like to make their minds up on polling day(leading to upsets like the Sask Party doing well in 1999, and the federal NDP avoiding the wipeout in Sask that most polls had marked them down for).

The CA is heading for a mauling in Sask next federal election, no matter how well the SP do.
The voters of Sask have decided that they are "establishment"... which means they've had it.
It would take a microscopic swing for the NDP to pick up 2 seats from the CA... and they have other seats on their hit-list as well...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP don't need to gain many votes to gain a fair amount of seats out West.
With the exception of Vancouver and Winnipeg they are not usually in direct competition with the Liberals.

Also gains are relative. 10 seats wouldn't be a lot for the Liberals, but would be for the NDP.

How many CA MP's are not on either the Liberals or the NDP's hit list?
Even Stockwell Day is being targeted(and how I would love the Liberals to take him out).

I think the answer is rural Alberta.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brief analysis(more stuff soon):

1. Calvert turned a 7% deficit into a 5% lead.
2. The turnout was high despite the weather.
3. The NDP benifited from a late swing(v. common is Sask)
4. Although the SP broke through in Saskatoon, the NDP broke through in rural areas.
5. Clay Serby broke the "Ag Minister" jinx.
6. Every cabinet minister was relected... except the Liberal turncoats.
7. Calvert was percieved by the voters as every bit the United Church Minister... while Hermason was percieved as every bit the professional politician.
8. The Liberals were shut out.
9. The NDP has won a fouth term, something it has not done since it's glory days in the 1950's.
10. Ralph Klein coming out in favour of the SP may have sunk them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From CBC:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what effect will this have on the federal election?

It won't have any direct effect(in other words it does not point out any new issues/trends that will have any impact federally and % in provincial elections are never the same as federal ones).

However it will have a more indirect effect, in that it will certainly further demoralise the CA and will embolden the NDP, which in itself won't result in any effect on the federal result, but will influence other effects.

NB.
I forgot to mention the Crown Corporations in the brief analysis.
I meant to... but forgot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the exception of the NDP all federal and provincial parties are seperate organisations.

In theory if not always in pratice.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hermason has resigned as leader of the Sask Party.