Will the GOP take the Senate in November?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate. [quote]

How does the 2010 pattern repeat itself? We came off a 10 percent unemployment rate. And a tech bubble burst. Although the only gov race that matters is MI at this point, the GOP won the generic ballot. This time the generic ballot is even. We are gonna pick up House seats. And gov seats. I think the mean is my prediction 4 or 5 seat loss. In which we hold onto AK and Landrieu or Hagen loses. Pick up a new seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And I was merely pointing out, just because they are Mitt Romney states, in AK, LA, and NC, where the senate is decided, the GOP will pick up the open seats or semi inc seats of Mnt, SD and WVa, AK and LA did trended toward Obama in 2012, and Obama did manage to win NC one time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There will be a difference between a GOP senate and a Dem one. Hopefully, status quo remains so that some legislation will get through. We don't want the repeat of Oct 2013 again. Congressional spending is already restrained due to the low GDP growth of 2 percent not unemployment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hold onto AK and NC and Southern primaries or runoffs in LA or Ga will give us the chance to keep Senate control and have 51 votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In order for the GOP to net 6 seats that would have to include winning both runoffs in LA and GA. Landrieu is no stranger to runoffs either. She handily def Tyrell at the height of Dubya's popularity. And Cassidy just stuck his foot in mouth about another Romney 47 percent comment. But winning AK and NC is ideal and not depend on a runoff for control, but if we have to, we have a chance to win either Ga or La.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In order for the GOP to net 6 seats that would have to include winning both runoffs in LA and GA. Landrieu is no stranger to runoffs either. She handily def Tyrell at the height of Dubya's popularity. And Cassidy just stuck his foot in mouth about another Romney 47 percent comment. But winning AK and NC is ideal and not depend on a runoff for control, but if we have to, we have a chance to win either Ga or La.

Although Landrieu is indeed experienced in winning runoffs, I think that the state of Louisiana has drifted in a more conservative direction since her last victory in 2008, negating her experience with winning close elections.

I said with both parties keyed on the runoffs, I said it would be difficult, not impossible for the GOP to win both runoffs.

I might further add not a single PPP poll has all three trailing Begich, Hagen or Landrieu. All of them are leading their respective races in PPP. Rassmussen has continuous had the Dems ahead on the generic ballot. And 7 new people have signed up for Health care reform. Right now generic ballot is 39-38 in favor of Dems. Obama's approval is at 47 percent not 41 percent it once was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His model is one of the better ones I have seen but saying Begich has a 45 percent of losing or to say Landrieu has a 55 percent of losing are off, I would say the vulnerable three had about 47-49 chance of losing. We should keep control and lose probably 4, ARK, SD, WV, Mnt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP most likely picks up 7-8 seats  (SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC) possibly IA with 52-53 seats in 2015 going by the current environment right now. Then 2016 comes into focus if they win 52 seats then Dems can at least breathe easy that they would only need three seats to take it back (WI, IL, PA) already there for them but 53 seats or more for the Rs its a steeper climb for the Ds.

The Democrats could potentially pick up Senate seats in Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri (if Jay Nixon runs), Iowa (if Chuck Grassley retires) and Arizona (if John McCain retires). If those seats and the ones you mentioned all go to the Democrats, then they would have a 57 or 58 seat majority after 2016.

I think we should keep out eyes on 2014, first. We have excellent chances of keeping AK and NC and MI and picking up KY and GA. Let 2016 take care of itself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes they're taking back the Senate in November.

Likely picking up 6-7 seats.

Nope, I say 4-5 seats.