Will the GOP take the Senate in November?

[SPC]

It's basically going to be like the 2010 Senate races, again.

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate.

[SPC]

In 2010, the only seat the Democrats held in a McCain seat was in West Virginia, where they had a popular Governor competing against a perennial candidate. The GOP's main missed opportunities (Colorado, Nevada, and Delaware) all voted for Obama by a larger margin than the national average. Assuming the same pattern holds with the 2014 map, the GOP would be virtually guaranteed 6-8 seats. Long story short, Democrats can't rely on a 2010 repeat to keep the Senate.

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Adam said that it would be a repeat of 2010, I was merely correcting him regarding the implications of that statement.

[SPC]

At this point I think the Republicans are favored to win the Senate races in WV, SD, MT, and AR, giving them 4 new seats. I think that they might win the races in LA, NC, CO, and MI. I have those as my pure tossups, but I believe that they would all go to one party or the other, giving them 8 seats, which would be enough to win the majority. I think that the main seat the Republicans should keep an eye on is KY, because I see that as being their only big risk. We'll see after the MS and GA primaries if those two Senate seats become competitive, but as of today, I believe that the Republicans are favored in both races. I think that IA, NH are tilting Democratic right now, but if the situation changes in those races, the Republicans might eye double-digit gains in the Senate.

Right now, I think that the Senate Republicans are where Obama was in 2012: the Republicans have many paths to victory the way Obama did 2 years ago, so I think that the Republicans will manage to win at least 6 seats. It is just too soon to tell precisely which seats will go to the Republicans.

Did you overlook Alaska, or are you confident in Begich's reelection chances.