Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

[Frodo]

Discuss with maps.

[henster]

Clinton wins easily Bush fatigue overcomes Jeb there is no fervor in America for another Bush in the White House. He would also depress turnout among conservatives/TPers because his stances on certain issues (amnesty/CommonCore). His potential performance with Hispanics is overblown in order to even make it through the primary he'd probably have to veer sharply to the right just like Romney did on the issue.

347 - 191

Clinton brings back a lot of blue collar/working class whites lost under Obama in the Rust Belt (OH,PA,WI) and performs a lot better in the South but only flipping NC in the end.

[Donerail]

If there's one thing I can guarantee it's that Clinton won't beat Jeb in Florida of all places.

[IceSpear]

If there's one thing I can guarantee it's that Clinton won't beat Jeb in Florida of all places.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html

Not that this means he'd definitely lose it, but it's a pretty big stretch to "guarantee" he'll win a state where he's never lead in a single poll.

[IceSpear]

Clinton - 319
Bush - 219

Clinton picks up NC/MO, Bush picks up FL/CO. I'm giving Jeb a slight edge in FL because the home state effect probably won't kick in until he actually declares, but I could easily see Hillary winning that as well.

[Donerail]

If there's one thing I can guarantee it's that Clinton won't beat Jeb in Florida of all places.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html

Not that this means he'd definitely lose it, but it's a pretty big stretch to "guarantee" he'll win a state where he's never lead in a single poll.

It is 2014. Polls now are basically irrelevant. Just wait for Hillary's numbers to come back down to earth and they'll probably be around where Biden is now (down four to Jeb in Florida).

[Potatoe]

If there's one thing I can guarantee it's that Clinton won't beat Jeb in Florida of all places.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html

Not that this means he'd definitely lose it, but it's a pretty big stretch to "guarantee" he'll win a state where he's never lead in a single poll.

It is 2014. Polls now are basically irrelevant. Just wait for Hillary's numbers to come back down to earth and they'll probably be around where Biden is now (down four to Jeb in Florida).

Why would they go down to losing by 4? You need to factor in the fact that the Tea Party does not like Jeb Bush, I mean, he's besties with Michael Bloomberg and supported Common Core!

[MATTROSE94]

Maybe this map could be possible:

[Suburbia]

Clinton wins Electoral vote 310-228, losing FL, CO, but gaining AR and MO. The Bush fatigue MAY be too deep, unless the economy slows somewhat in Aug-Oct 2016.

[SWE]

Clinton wins Electoral vote 310-228, losing FL, CO, but gaining AR and MO. The Bush fatigue MAY be too deep, unless the economy slows somewhat in Aug-Oct 2016.

Hillary would not win Arkansas

[pbrower2a]

What the most current polls say:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169131.msg4108030#msg4108030

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

white -- tie
gray -- no polling

[Joshgreen]

Clinton wins Electoral vote 310-228, losing FL, CO, but gaining AR and MO. The Bush fatigue MAY be too deep, unless the economy slows somewhat in Aug-Oct 2016.

Hillary would not win Arkansas

You don't know this.

If there's one thing I can guarantee it's that Clinton won't beat Jeb in Florida of all places.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html

Not that this means he'd definitely lose it, but it's a pretty big stretch to "guarantee" he'll win a state where he's never lead in a single poll.

It is 2014. Polls now are basically irrelevant. Just wait for Hillary's numbers to come back down to earth and they'll probably be around where Biden is now (down four to Jeb in Florida).

Your brilliant insights are much appreciated.

[pbrower2a]

What I think will happen:

2 AM, morning following Election Day:

Clinton (D) 374
Bush (R) 176

28 too close to call

Popular vote: 54-45. Third Party 1.

Jeb has been out of Florida long enough that he could lose the state much as Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.

Other Republicans are losing Arizona, and the current lead for Jeb is 1% there. Arizona seems to be going D very fast, the large Mexican-American middle class leading the state D in Presidential elections as happened in California about 1992 and Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico in 2008. The Mexican-American vote is beginning to look much like the Jewish vote, and that is going to hurt Republicans badly.  It is slightly daring for me to figure that Arizona goes to Hillary Clinton in view of the voting history of the state, but I see Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul losing the state in polls. I see a political collapse for the Republican Party in Arizona, and a Hispanic wife of Jeb Bush will be a triviality.  

Missouri was really close for McCain in 2008, and McCain won it because the conservative alternative to him took away fewer votes from McCain than did the left-leaning third-party (Green) nominee take votes that might otherwise have gone to Obama.

Georgia and Indiana will be close, but I know too little about either (and I live close to Indiana -- the state just does not poll often) to make a prediction.

Clinton still loses most of the Mountain and Deep South, but not by as huge margins as did Obama. She loses Texas by a smaller margin. She might not run up the gigantic margins by which Obama won in the Northeastern quadrant of the US in 2008, either. The pattern of a blowout landslide in  30 states as a winner and in effect a blowout landslide of losses in the other 20 states so characteristic of Obama in 2008 won't happen again.  

Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio will be shaky enough that the Clinton campaign will have to buy ad time in such places as Omaha, South Bend, and Fort Wayne just to solidify the vote in those states. But as those states solidify, the Clinton campaign will keep spending advertising funds on Omaha, South Bend, and Fort Wayne... and pull advertising from ad markets Michigan to spend instead in Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Louisville to make a win of Indiana possible. Ads in Omaha and perhaps Lincoln (practically the same market)  could win NE-02 and put NE-01 in doubt.  Georgia may not be abandoned so hastily in 2006.

I'm not predicting Georgia or Indiana, except that they will be close. Hillary Clinton will have the Obama campaign apparatus intact, and with her ability to appeal to some people that Obama offended by being... you know... the Obama campaign will show the ability to exploit any R weakness.  

[Mister Mets]

I think Clinton's favored against Jeb since the Bush name carries more baggage, and the country's readier to nominate the first female President than it is to nominate the son and brother of Presidents.

The standard map would probably be Obama's 2012 states minus Florida.

This is the likely result if Clinton wins by between 2-5 points, given the gap between North Carolina (the closest Romney state) and Ohio (the next closest Obama state) in terms of where the states are relative to the national popular vote. I'd expect Jeb to overperform in the state he governed in.

Clinton/ Heinrich- 303 Electoral Votes
Bush/ Ernst- 235 Electoral Votes

In order to win the nomination Jeb Bush will have to demonstrate significant political talent, so I'm not too worried about what it means that he hasn't been in a political race since 2002.

It's also been a while since Clinton won a competitive election, so she may be rusty, and it's entirely possible that the Democratic field won't be sufficiently challenging to prepare her for the General. She's also uniquely unable to argue against political dynasties.

A narrow Jeb win is possible.

Jeb/ Ernst- 281 Electoral Votes
Clinton/ Heinrich- 257 Electoral Votes

Although it's also possible for Clinton to eke out a narrow win (especially since I gave Jeb an Iowan running mate.)

Clinton/ Heinrich- 270 Electoral Votes
Bush/ Ernst- 268 Electoral Votes

[MurrayBannerman]

Bush/Martinez or Sandoval - 255 EV
Clinton/Heinrich - 216 EV

67 Tossup EV

This is what I think it would come down to. Obviously there are other tossup states, but I'm giving Jeb a good potion of the Latino vote.

[Potatoe]

Bush/Martinez or Sandoval - 255 EV
Clinton/Heinrich - 216 EV

67 Tossup EV

This is what I think it would come down to. Obviously there are other tossup states, but I'm giving Jeb a good potion of the Latino vote.

A. Martinez ain't interested.

B. Bush isn't going to pick Sandoval when he's already had his own troubles, and picking a Pro Choice VP is just stupid in a 2016 GOP.

C. Why would both Nevada and New Mexico flip?

And he probably wouldn't get so high in the Latino vote, many new Hispanic voters probably wouldn't remember the Jeb Bush days.

[Joshgreen]

Bush/Martinez or Sandoval - 255 EV
Clinton/Heinrich - 216 EV

67 Tossup EV

This is what I think it would come down to. Obviously there are other tossup states, but I'm giving Jeb a good potion of the Latino vote.

You're on crack bro.

[tallguy23]

I think the country is still quite anti-Bush. They just don't have the same admiration and respect that the Clintons do. Jeb is still a strong candidate, but his last name is Bush....that will hurt him.

[pbrower2a]

Bush/Martinez or Sandoval - 255 EV
Clinton/Heinrich - 216 EV

67 Tossup EV

This is what I think it would come down to. Obviously there are other tossup states, but I'm giving Jeb a good potion of the Latino vote.

New Mexico is gone for the Republican Party in Presidential elections. It has quickly gone about as D as Massachusetts.A VP nominee is far from enough to swing the state. 

[MurrayBannerman]

Maybe I'm overestimating a Bush and Sandoval/Martinez ticket with the Latino vote, but it still doesn't change the major focus of his campaign.

[Joshgreen]

Maybe I'm overestimating a Bush and Sandoval/Martinez ticket with the Latino vote, but it still doesn't change the major focus of his campaign.

MASSIVE understatement...