2010 Reapportionment Projection

[JohnFKennedy]

Another estimate using the same 2003 census data is at
http://www.polidata.org/census/bensen_dc05.pdf

It projects the population growth in a similar fashion, then uses the actual apportionment method. That method starts by assigning each state 1 representative seat. The next seat goes to the largest state and its population is then divided by two. Each additional seat goes to the largest state population divided by the number of seats already assigned. When all 435 seats have been assigned, reapportionment is complete.

By the analysis cited above:

Gainers:
TX +3
CA +2
FL +2
NV +1
UT +1
AZ +1
GA +1

Losers:
NY -2
OH -2
MA -1
PA -1
IL -1
MN -1
IA -1
MO -1
LA -1

Not good for the Democrats, most of the gainers (except CA) are solid Republicans and most of the losers are solid Democrats.

[JohnFKennedy]

And all but one of the states those are in went to the Republicans