7 Million people sign up for insurance plans via state/federal exchanges (!)

[MalaspinaGold]

Pop the champagne.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/deadline-dash-health-care-sign-ups-amid-glitches-23130500

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Above what almost anyone was expecting.  Keep in mind also, that anyone who has started an application will have until April 15th to ultimately enroll.

[MalaspinaGold]

We probably won't know that number until May, Frodo. The number around February was around 25%. According to this MinnPost article, "new enrollments" could be as high as 51% young invincibles. The wording is really vague, but it appears to refer to the off-exchange enrollments

http://www.minnpost.com/minnesota-blog-cabin/2014/04/aca-has-really-turned-corner

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If I had to guess, I'd say the final number will probably be between 35% and 42%.

[MalaspinaGold]

Damned right-wing comedians like Jimmy Fallon and their darned facts! I suppose he'll eventually get the chop for not toeing the line.

The deadline hasn't been extended for months? It hasn't been extended at all, really. It was always March 31st.

I'm sure the millions of Americans who have access to stable, affordable health insurance for the first time feel very oppressed by Obama's authoritarianism.

The early figures don't seem to be lining up with the projections, no.

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2014/04/09/rand-comes-clean-obamacares-exchanges-enrolled-only-1-4-million-previously-uninsured-individuals/

The 1.4/3.9 data is completely ignoring the massive surge in the latter half of March, which almost certainly leaned heavily to the uninsured side.

Final number will be about 50/50.

[MalaspinaGold]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/17/fact-sheet-affordable-care-act-numbers

8 Million enrolled in exchanges.

[MalaspinaGold]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/04/17/its-official-the-death-spiral-is-dead/

So, the Society of Actuaries determines estimates that premiums will increase by 6-7% next year.
That's higher than CBO's extimate of about 3% (because of risk corridors) but in line with CBO's longer term estimates.

Pre-Obamacare, premiums increased by about 8-10% annually.

RIP death spiral

[MalaspinaGold]

False. Does not square with the fact that the uninsured rate fell dramatically only after the exchanges opened, despite job creation comparable to the year before.

[MalaspinaGold]

False. Does not square with the fact that the uninsured rate fell dramatically only after the exchanges opened, despite job creation comparable to the year before.

Please stop making things up and look at the data. When the exchanges opened, the unemployment rate rose by about 2% as millions of people received cancellations, and then it dropped 2.5% as all of those people scrambled to get onto the exchanges. The ~.5% are the new enrollees. They represent approximately 20%-25% of all enrollees.

Gallup begs to disagree with you:


First off, 0 people were thrown off ACA uncompliant plans in 2013. I repeat, zero, ZERO. This is because the ACA mandates did not take effect until January 1, 2014. The people who received the cancellation notices were still insured until the end of 2013. So obviously, that can't explain the spike.

Not to mention, the spike began in the first quarter of 2013, well before any of these cancellation notices even began arriving.

Not even mentioning that this data does not include the March/April surge, which has the uninsured rate going down another 2% to 13%.

Regarding your second point, if you REALLY want to go down that route, fine- just be sure to count the 5-7 million extra off-exchange enrollments in your total- that's where most cancelled policyholders went anyway.

So once again, your initial claim was false.

[MalaspinaGold]

First off, 0 people were thrown off ACA uncompliant plans in 2013. I repeat, zero, ZERO. This is because the ACA mandates did not take effect until January 1, 2014. The people who received the cancellation notices were still insured until the end of 2013. So obviously, that can't explain the spike.

The data is right in front of you. The health insurance companies jettisoned as many high-risk people as possible, according to the RAND report, many were smokers. When healthcare.gov came online, all of those newly uninsured people bought coverage.

The decrease of uninsured rates from 17.4 to 15.9 was primarily private sector hiring during 2011 and 2012. Obamacare is credited with reducing the rate by .5% according to the latest data I saw.

Sorry, that's what it is. We're just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Democrats managed to pass a new tax on Cadillac insurance plans. The rest of us with non-Cadillac insurance are reliant upon employers to reduce health insurance costs.

Pray tell us what you are basing your assertions of rapid jettisoning of high-risk patients during 2013.

Here's Gallup:
http://thrive.gallup.com/2014/04/is-affordable-care-act-working.html

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And no, not all of the increase in insurance was because of increased hiring:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/168548/newly-insured-2014-represent-adults.aspx

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[MalaspinaGold]

You really love your silly metaphors don't you?

First off, it is not illegal to be uninsured, it just costs $100-500 more.

Second off, as can be seen from this graph:



The proportion of medicaid/exchange signups that would be medicaid is 13/(25+13) is about 35%.

This of course, comes from the CBO report from several days ago. And while there may be some nuances with it, the underlying fact remains that your initial claim was false.