South Carolina statewide offices 2014

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The State has an article with the full list, I'm only going to comment on selected races.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/31/3359047/sc-elections-the-dance-cards-are.html

First off, Haley has an unexpected primary opponent for governor in ex-State Rep. and ex-Judge Tom Ervin.  Looks like Ervin's purpose isn't so much as to run against Haley as it is to use the race as a soapbox to speak out against problems at one state agency.  I don't expect it'll be even as much as a hiccup for Nikki's rematch with Vince in the fall.

Lt. Gov is the marquee race with ex-Attorney General Henry McMaster facing off against Mike Campbell (Carroll Campbell's son) and two others in the Republican primary.  Since that race will essentially determine who our Lt. Governor will be, and it's far from clear who will win, I'll likely be voting in the Republican primary. I can't say I really care for either McMaster or Campbell, but neither do I despise either of them.  For different reasons, I doubt the ability of either of them to use the office as a springboard to the Governor's office in 2018 unless Haley becomes Vice President or a Cabinet secretary after the 2016 election.

In the Commissioner of Agriculture race, incumbent Hugh Weathers faces the aptly named Joe Farmer in the primary.

Superintendent of Education is a crowded race with four Democrats and eight Republicans running.  I fully expect that both races will end up in a runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Whoa: RGA goes thermonuclear on Sheheen. Now that's what I call a negative ad.

Why bother?  Democrats should cheer the RGA spending money on this race.  Every dollar they spend here is a dollar they could have spent elsewhere in a race that mattered.  The only way this makes sense is if Christie controls where the ad money goes and is trying to get Haley on his side for 2016.  Unless an unexpected scandal or gaffe crops up, Haley's winning this year.  The only question is whether the margin will be below or above 10% of the vote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For some unfathomable reason, the RGA has doubled down on its attack against Sheheen for doing his job as a lawyer.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/04/28/3414164/rgas-second-take-on-vincent-sheheens.html

I say unfathomable not because I think the ad will be ineffective but because there really is no need for them to stoop to this level to be able to defeat Sheheen.  As I said before, the only reason for the RGA to waste its time and money in South Carolina is because Christie wants Haley to owe him a favor come 2016.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As I said before, the only reason for the RGA to waste its time and money in South Carolina is because Christie wants Haley to owe him a favor come 2016.

I don't know why. Haley showed the influence of her endorsement in 2012, and Christie is a lot harder sell to make in SC.

Romney wasn't exactly a easy sell, but endorsing him was a bit of political payback of his early endorsement of her in 2010, so it indicates she's the kind of politician who returns favors, even when it might not be the most advantageous thing to do.  It might not have helped Romney directly too much (tho it may have provided the margin needed to get the 2 delegates from the 1st district) but it did help keep another candidate from building up their ground game and making use of her endorsement.

Besides, since Christie is just spending other people's money, why not try to gain a few free favors from it?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.thestate.com/2014/06/09/3497173/tom-ervin-submits-20137-signatures.html

Tom Ervin has submitted the signatures for his "Independent Republican" candidacy for governor.  With 20,137 signatures submitted and him only needing 10,000 of them to be valid, he likely will make the fall campaign, tho he'll be listed as a "Petition" candidate on the ballot and not as the Independent Republican he has been campaigning as.  I think he could have had a greater impact for the issue he's energized about had he run in the primary since that campaign would have been while the General Assembly was in session.  I seriously doubt he'll have much impact in November, tho if he does have an impact, it'll help Sheheen who will need the help to have any chance of winning.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually that Childs got 7% was impressive under the circumstances.  There's a reason why Zais didn't run for reelection, he knew he was going to get trounced, and as his former Deputy Superintendent, there was no real way for her to win.  Common Core is pretty thoroly despised among GOP primary voters in this State.  Sheri Few managed to get into third place on the strength of being the most strongly anti-Common Core despite being otherwise a poor candidate.  Atwater is going to win the runoff because Spearman has dared to say that there might be a few good ideas that could be salvaged from Common Core and put into our own State standards.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

www.thestate.com/2014/06/16/3511794/take-2-tom-ervin-finally-submits.html

Take 2!

It seems when Ervin tried to drop off his signatures for his petition candidacy for governor last Monday, he was told to come back later as the State Election Commission was busy getting ready for the primary the next day.  So he went back yesterday and this time he did so.  Technically the signatures aren't due until 15 July, so I can understand the SEC wishing to prioritize how it used its staff and office space on the day before the primary.