2016 Republican Nomination Poll - April 2014

[Senator Cris]

I have decided to open this poll all the months for see the opinion of the forum and make comparison with the precedent month.

The results of March (in parentheses the variations with February).

Scott Walker 32,5% (-5,7%)
Jeb Bush 14,5% (-0,2%)
Rand Paul 13,3% (+0,1%)
Chris Christie 7,2% (+5,7%)
Mike Huckabee 6% (-1,4%)
Ted Cruz 6% (+1,6%)
Marco Rubio 3,6% (+3,6%)
Mitt Romney 2,4% (-5%)
Paul Ryan 2,4% (+0,9%)
John Bolton 2,4% (+2,4%)
John Kasich 1,2% (-1,7%)
Mike Pence 1,2% (-1,7%)
Condi Rice 1,2% (-0,3%)
Sarah Palin 1,2% (-0,3%)
Ben Carson 1,2% (+1,2%)
Rick Santorum 1,2% (+1,2%)
Rob Portman 1,2% (+1,2%)
Tim Pawlenty 1,2% (+1,2%)
John Huntsman 0% (-1,5%)
Donald Trump 0% (-1,5%)       
Rick Perry 0% (=)
Peter King 0% (=)
Scott Brown 0% (=)
Bobby Jindal 0% (=)
Steve King 0% (=)
Brian Sandoval 0% (=)
Rick Synder 0% (=)
Allen West 0% (=)
John Thune 0% (=)
Kelly Ayotte 0% (=)
Mary Fallin 0% (=)
Nikki Haley 0% (=)
Sam Brownback 0% (=)
Susana Martinez 0% (=)
Other 0% (=)

Graphic:

[Consciously Unconscious]

I think I'm back to saying Bush.  Walker is a close second though. 

[IceSpear]

Jeb's stock probably rises due to the stories about his renewed interest, along with the poll showing Walker in trouble in WI (though the much more reliable Marquette poll contradicted that). I'm sticking with Walker.

[Suburbia]

I would go with Walker or Paul, but I still say Tim Pawlenty. If the establishment does not get Bush, Christie's faltering, if Walker is not impressive, he may be the "consensus" guy, although he's uncharismatic. He has Wall Street ties now, and that's something candidates today, sadly have to get support from. After him, I would also choose Rand Paul, Thune, Portman, Pence, Bush. The Midwest will likely decide the 2016 elections.

[MATTROSE94]

I would probably go with either Scott Walker, Rand Paul or Jeb Bush. While Chris Christie's scandals have died down to a point, it doesn't look like he would make it through the Republican primary. In addition, the chances that Ted Cruz will win the nomination seemed to have diminished as well, especially due to his surprisingly weak performance in the CPAC straw poll.

[Mordecai]

I think I'm back to saying Bush.  Walker is a close second though. 

[Maxwell]

Paul is certainly my favorite. That being said, I can't be too mad if Walker, Sandoval, or Snyder get the nom (of the people that are listed)

Also, bronz is a moron. That is all thank you.

[eric82oslo]

I think that right now Rand Paul is most likely, but Jeb Bush will almost certainly win if he runs. Also Mike Huckabee could do "surprisingly" well, although the chance of him running is probably less than 50%. (While the chance is at least 90% that Rand Paul will run.)

[Joshgreen]

Of those listed, Sandoval is the only one who seems to have his head screwed on straight.

[Bull Moose Base]

I've always thought Jeb's chances of running were underestimated but I still don't think you can call them much if at all above 50/50 without more evidence. I think Ryan's new budget probably downgrades his chance of running which in turn makes Walker more likely, but with 7 months to go, I don't think you can call Walker better than 60% to get re-elected. So maybe Walker is also around 50/50. Cruz on the other hand seems inclined to run with little to deter him. Total speculation on these but I'd guess 80% chance he runs. Cruz is an underdog in a primary but not a huge one. The base loves him and is much less suspicious of him than Paul, and you need the base if you're going to be an insurgent candidate. He'll raise much more money than Huckabee and Santorum did. He's way less vulnerable than Gingrich, and seems less error-prone than Santorum.

[Flake]

I can confidently say that, as of now, Rand Paul is the big favorite to win the nomination.

[Reaganfan]

Chris Christie

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Of those listed, Sandoval is the only one who seems to have his head screwed on straight.

this would make him the least likely to win the nomination.

i think it'll be paul ryan. "next in line" tendencies + santorum isn't going anywhere.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Chris Christie

Yep.  I've said for months that this "scandal" is a joke (at least claims of his involvement) and come 2016, he'll be the clear "Rockefeller" candidate and he'll win a fractured field.

[SWE]

Jeb is the clear favorite.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

More and more likely as time passes that Walker will be the nominee.

[Maxwell]

Chris Christie

Yep.  I've said for months that this "scandal" is a joke (at least claims of his involvement) and come 2016, he'll be the clear "Rockefeller" candidate and he'll win a fractured field.

Whether or not the scandal is a joke, I don't think it is, it's made a very real dent in his general election numbers and, thus, his credibility as a candidate that can 'win'. He still could win the primary, but I doubt it.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Sticking with Walker, although Paul would be my second guess.

[Likely Voter]

Voted for Pence. I still think that the eventual nominee will be a governor who isn't one of the usual suspects being talked about now.

[tmthforu94]

Mitt Romney

[BaconBacon96]

Jeb Bush.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This is my first time in one of these polls for the 2016 cycle, but I think I'm going to choose Gov. Scott Walker.  That could change for May and this summer, but right now, I think Walker because the GOP is not very good at "surprise" candidates like Barack Obama was in 2007/2008.  The GOP likes to nominate "the next guy".  I think Bush handed the torch to McCain late in his term so that's how McCain rose up and took the nomination in 2008 and Romney was a no-brainer in 2012.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Bush. At least until we know how Walker's reelection campaign and Christie's problems with Bridgegate fully play out.

[Supersonic]

I think I'm back to saying Bush.  Walker is a close second though. 

[RogueBeaver]

Cheese.