FL-Sen-2016: If Rubio runs for Pres, he's out

[free my dawg]

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Toss-up? Any chance he runs for Nelson's seat if he loses?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He might run for Governor. It would boost his executive experiance and put him in the running for 2020 or 2024.

[RogueBeaver]

FL GOP has a deep bench. Question for Sanchez and other Floridians is whether those folks would run for an open Senate seat or stick with guv. I doubt Rubio would run for Nelson's seat - much more likely he switches anyways.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

FL GOP has a deep bench. Question for Sanchez and other Floridians is whether those folks would run for an open Senate seat or stick with guv. I doubt Rubio would run for Nelson's seat - much more likely he switches anyways.

I doubt Rubio would run. I think Putnam wants to be Governor, as does Bondi. The primary between those two will be interesting. Atwater's bid to take over the FAU presidency shows that he is more interested in a cushy job than power, so I don't think he is as likely to enter an already crowded primary.

As for the Senate, look out for future Congresswoman Liz Benequisto. I'd also think about Will Weatherford; he might make a go for the position.

[LeBron]

Really makes no sense when Rubio could just cut a deal with Scott this year to support in the legislature and eventually sign a bill lifting the prohibition on a simultaneous run in return for Rubio's support and money this year in Scott's re-election campaign. I would presume he still runs for re-election because his 2013 immigration move already destroys his chances of winning the primary and if he looked at the polls, he should know the obvious choice given the frontrunner for his Senate seat is a 0-2 Democrat who already lost statewide.

In the case that he doesn't run again or he just loses re-election, I would bet either on a 2018 run (if Nelson retires) or a 2022 Senate run against whichever Democrat he lost to in the first place because I doubt he would run against Crist assuming he runs again and beats Scott this year and with other FL Republicans already interested in the Governorship, I think his mind will stay on the Senate.

[Donerail]

FL GOP has a deep bench. Question for Sanchez and other Floridians is whether those folks would run for an open Senate seat or stick with guv. I doubt Rubio would run for Nelson's seat - much more likely he switches anyways.

I doubt Rubio would run. I think Putnam wants to be Governor, as does Bondi. The primary between those two will be interesting. Atwater's bid to take over the FAU presidency shows that he is more interested in a cushy job than power, so I don't think he is as likely to enter an already crowded primary.

As for the Senate, look out for future Congresswoman Liz Benequisto. I'd also think about Will Weatherford; he might make a go for the position.

I agree with Sanchez here, especially on Weatherford. The guy seems ambitious, but really has nowhere to go after he's termed out of the State House - his State Sen seat and US House seat are both occupied by GOP incumbents, if I recall correctly. He certainly has the status to run for Senate. There's always Allen West too.

For the Dems - yeah, they're still FL Dems. I doubt Sink runs if she doesn't win an election between now and 2016. Charlie probably won't run either. We'll probably end up with Iorio or Buckhorn.

[Dereich]

Perhaps a few state senators should be thrown in the mix; Thrasher or Latvala might want to have a crack at it. For the Dems, minority leader Chris Smith will be hitting his term limit right around 2016, he might want to jump in.

[moderatevoter]

What about Patrick Murphy?

[PPT Spiral]

There's a good chance that Allen West rears his ugly head back in the game under this scenario, correct?

[publicunofficial]

Murphy would be the best bet. Good fundraiser, can win tough races (On turf that's even redder than the state), and his seat is trending R so he probably knows he can't stay in the House forever so why not try a Senate run?


If Gwen Graham knocks of Southerland, then I can see her name being mentioned as well. It might be kinda gaudy to run for higher office after only one term, but it's working pretty well for Tom Cotton and Steve Daines.

[windjammer]

Well,
On the dem side: Patrick Murphy maybe? He's a good fundraiser.
On the rep side: Pam Bondi would be a good recruit, wouldn't she? Though Allen West will probably run.

[Badger]

Really makes no sense when Rubio could just cut a deal with Scott this year to support in the legislature and eventually sign a bill lifting the prohibition on a simultaneous run in return for Rubio's support and money this year in Scott's re-election campaign. I would presume he still runs for re-election because his 2013 immigration move already destroys his chances of winning the primary and if he looked at the polls, he should know the obvious choice given the frontrunner for his Senate seat is a 0-2 Democrat who already lost statewide.

In the case that he doesn't run again or he just loses re-election, I would bet either on a 2018 run (if Nelson retires) or a 2022 Senate run against whichever Democrat he lost to in the first place because I doubt he would run against Crist assuming he runs again and beats Scott this year and with other FL Republicans already interested in the Governorship, I think his mind will stay on the Senate.

I think Rubio is already essentially expected to push Scott's re-election. There are varying degrees of support, of course, but it'll look bad to his home-state base if he mostly sits on his hands and Crist wins. There's also only so much $ support he can provide as he'll need every penny as seed money to jump start his faltering campaign.

Besides, if Rubio is out of his senate seat that's one more potential job Scott could later target regardless of his re-election race's outcome.

[IceSpear]

There's a good chance that Allen West rears his ugly head back in the game under this scenario, correct?

We can only hope.

[henster]

Kathy Castor, Patrick Murphy?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kathy Castor, Patrick Murphy?

Maybe and no. Paddy Murphy is lucky to have his seat to begin with, and while he will cling on this year, any good Republican can take him out later.

[Donerail]

Kathy Castor, Patrick Murphy?

Maybe and no. Paddy Murphy is lucky to have his seat to begin with, and while he will cling on this year, any good Republican can take him out later.

Kathy Castor's never seemed to me to have much ambition for the Senate. Murphy I'm bullish on - I could certainly see him going for it, given his fundraising so far, especially if he manages to hold on in 2014 by a larger-than-expected margin.

[DrScholl]

Patrick Murphy has the right profile to run statewide, representing a district that is somewhat more Republican than the state as a whole is not a bad staging point for a statewide campaign.

The mayor of Jacksonville might be an option (depending on how good a job he's done as mayor), as well as Val Demings.

[Dereich]

Patrick Murphy has the right profile to run statewide, representing a district that is somewhat more Republican than the state as a whole is not a bad staging point for a statewide campaign.

The mayor of Jacksonville might be an option (depending on how good a job he's done as mayor), as well as Val Demings.

Alvin Brown could never win the Democratic primary; he's far too right wing for the urban leftists. It'll get him a pretty easy reelection, but he'll never fly with the state Dems unless they're even more desperate than normal (which is already pretty desperate).

[publicunofficial]

Patrick Murphy has the right profile to run statewide, representing a district that is somewhat more Republican than the state as a whole is not a bad staging point for a statewide campaign.

The mayor of Jacksonville might be an option (depending on how good a job he's done as mayor), as well as Val Demings.

Alvin Brown could never win the Democratic primary; he's far too right wing for the urban leftists. It'll get him a pretty easy reelection, but he'll never fly with the state Dems unless they're even more desperate than normal (which is already pretty desperate).

He's to the left of Charlie Crist, so the urban leftists can learn to deal with it if the DSCC clears the way.

[windjammer]

And Alvin Brown is black, and this something the Democratic Party needs: black senators!

[MATTROSE94]

Patrick Murphy has the right profile to run statewide, representing a district that is somewhat more Republican than the state as a whole is not a bad staging point for a statewide campaign.

The mayor of Jacksonville might be an option (depending on how good a job he's done as mayor), as well as Val Demings.

Patrick Murphy would be my first choice for the Democratic nomination for the 2016 Florida Senate election, as he is only in his early 30s and has a somewhat moderate record to run on.

[Dereich]

Patrick Murphy has the right profile to run statewide, representing a district that is somewhat more Republican than the state as a whole is not a bad staging point for a statewide campaign.

The mayor of Jacksonville might be an option (depending on how good a job he's done as mayor), as well as Val Demings.

Alvin Brown could never win the Democratic primary; he's far too right wing for the urban leftists. It'll get him a pretty easy reelection, but he'll never fly with the state Dems unless they're even more desperate than normal (which is already pretty desperate).

He's to the left of Charlie Crist, so the urban leftists can learn to deal with it if the DSCC clears the way.

I'd actually argue he's to the right of Charlie Crist. He's had more conflicts with the city council from the right than the left; he's even shown up to a few tea party meetings and gotten a degree of support from them for some of his policies. Of course, if Crist had been mayor of Jacksonville I expect he would have been to Brown's right, but that's just a hypothetical.