Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout:

[YL]

Does anyone have a feeling for how gerrymandered these constituency boundaries actually are?  I understand that they were drawn by the government (rather than by a commission) and cannot be changed without a two thirds majority in parliament, both of which make me suspicious.

They don't look particularly gerrymandered at a first glance at the map, in the sense that they don't generally have the ridiculous shapes that often appear for congressional districts in the US, but gerrymanders can be subtler than the Maryland/Ohio/North Carolina type.

Playing with the seat calculatior that Diouf posted suggests that a tie in votes between Fidesz and Unity would still leave Fidesz ahead in seats, but not by that much.

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout by region:

[Diouf]

Does anyone have a feeling for how gerrymandered these constituency boundaries actually are?  I understand that they were drawn by the government (rather than by a commission) and cannot be changed without a two thirds majority in parliament, both of which make me suspicious.

They don't look particularly gerrymandered at a first glance at the map, in the sense that they don't generally have the ridiculous shapes that often appear for congressional districts in the US, but gerrymanders can be subtler than the Maryland/Ohio/North Carolina type.

Playing with the seat calculatior that Diouf posted suggests that a tie in votes between Fidesz and Unity would still leave Fidesz ahead in seats, but not by that much.

Ferenc Kumin, who is Deputy State Secretary for International Communications of the Hungarian Government, has written quite extensively about the new electoral system here. Obviously the view of the government, but I believe he does make a number of reasonable arguments, especially that the new system follows a lot of the recommendations from international organizations:
http://blogabouthungary.com/tag/newelectoralsystem/

The districts specifically here: http://ferenckumin.tumblr.com/post/61045910768/what-you-should-know-about-the-new-electoral-districts

I agree that the districts don't look gerrymandered on the map. The previous electoral system was way too complicated and elected too many MPs, so cutting down the number of MPs and simplification were certainly steps in the right direction. However, I would have preferred if the list system worked like in Scotland, so that the list votes did more to make the overall result proportional.

[Tender Branson]

Some pictures from election day:

Viktor Orbán (Fidesz) & wife voting:



Attila Mesterházy (Unity) & family voting:



Gábor Vona (Jobbik) & family voting:



András Schiffer (LMP) voting:



Random people voting:

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout:



Looks like 62%-ish turnout for the day.

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout by region:

[Tender Branson]

Voters in Budapest are now flocking to the polls, with some polling stations there reporting big lines:

(This could be some good news for the left-wing opposition, because Budapest has seen a higher share for the left in previous elections than other parts of Hungary ...)











http://mno.hu/galeriak/2420491

[Tender Branson]

It's interesting to see how the turnout in Hungary seems to be higher in the urban areas, rather than the rural areas like here in Austria and almost anywhere else ...

Anyway, 3pm turnout numbers for the country:

[Famous Mortimer]

So Hungary doesn't follow the traditional Eastern European dynamic of left-wing in rural areas and right-wing in urban areas?

[Tender Branson]

First Exit Poll (list vote):

48% Fidesz
27% Unity
18% Jobbik
  6% LMP
  1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Voting btw will be extended to 8pm because of long lines in Budapest.

[Tender Branson]

Detailed results are to be expected in about 2-3 hours.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Nézőpont exit poll:

Fidesz 48%
Összefogás 27%
Jobbik 18%
LMP 6%

[Tender Branson]

New Exit Poll (list vote, different company):

47-51% Fidesz
19-23% Unity
18-22% Jobbik
    3-7% LMP

Turnout: 60-62%

http://hvg.hu/itthon/20140406_Szazadveg_kormanypartok_4751_szazalek_ba

[Enno von Loewenstern]

It seems that the Fidesz again one can obtain the possibility of a two-thirds majority in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Budapest was already hitting 70% at 5pm and there were still a ton of people standing in line there:



Voting will be extended there, until everyone who's in the line has voted ...

[norain]

The polls are so depressing that I'm afraid to the final result.

[Colbert]

After France, a new crash for european left !


Euronews live, 98 % of vote counted :

national-conservative : 44.4 % (133 s.)
social-liberal left : 26% (38)
far-right : 20.6%2 (23)
social-liberal green : 5.27 (5)

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good clickable map:

http://hvg.hu/valasztas

Overall a horrible result of course, but at least Jobbik won no direct seat.

Of the 106 direct seats, Fidesz won 96 and Unity 10 (of which 8 are in Budapest).

[rob in cal]

In terms of the gerrymander issue of the district seats it doesn't look too horrible.  If Fidesz was really trying hard, couldnt they have done a better job of cramming the left wing vote into a few less Budapest districts? As it was Unity won several seats by narrow margins in Budapest, instead of winning a few less by huge margins.  Outside of Budapest it doesn't look like they came very close to winning many more districts, so I'm wondering if they lost that many more to gerrymandering or just because thats usually what happens to a party that is trailing by about 20 points nationwide to the winner.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The 38 "Unity"-MPs are 29 MSZP, 4 DK, 3 Együtt, 1 PM, 1 MLP.

While Fidesz two-thirds majority is now fixed, the left opposition decomposed:

Quoted from the center-left Pester Lloyd http://www.pesterlloyd.net/html/1415politreaktionen.html :


"The losers of the five-party alliance "regime change" refused Orbán a congratulations on his election victory, but they recognized his win in spite of further allegations of an unfair electoral system and other structurally disadvantages. Ex-Premier and "Együtt 2014" leader Gordon Bajnai and MSZP leader Attila Mesterházy and DK-chairman and former Prime Minister Gyurcsány admitted to varying degrees also that they have not been able to give people an attractive alternative.

The coalition is not likely to lead to a faction alliance. The MSZP is 29 by 38, the largest group within the Alliance. Bajnai's "Together 2014" announced "no compromise in opposition work in favor of a common fraction". Since the four deputies can not form fraction (this requires five), they would fight as much as possible in Parliament, but above all extra-parliamentary struggle for a "regime change."

Gábor Fodor, the only deputy of his Hungarian Liberal Party has not yet decided whether he "Together 2014" or possibly the DK wants to make a coalition deal , so the group could form a fraction with appropriate rights and resources. Fodor requires that he could continue to present within such a group as "independent liberal party " .

MSZP leader Attila Mesterházy, despite its poor performance so far ruled out resignation, he said in the TV channel ATV on Sunday. He is already focusing on the European elections and local elections in the fall. Also in the studio, his former boss and predecessor, Ferenc Gyurcsány, who might not even recognize to have its own share of the electoral defeat of his Alliance."

[Cranberry]

I know this thread is old, and sorry for bumping it, but it would have fitted just in here:

In a by-election in the Western Hungarian seat of Veszprem, the independent candidate Zoltan Kesz won by 9 points over a Fidesz candidate, after the former MP (from Fidesz) went to Brussels to serve in the European Commission. The seat was won by Fidesz by over 20% in the 2014 election.

This would not be that memorable normally, however, this loss for Fidesz means that Orban now has lost his 2/3 majority in the Hungarian Parliament. This by-election so is seen as a message to Orban and Fidesz, who have lost popularity in Hungary in recent months. According to late polls, Fidesz is now only supported by 24% of the Hungarians. (They got 48% in the last election)

See this article: Hungarian Voters Clip Orban's Wings With By-Election Upset

[ag]

I know this thread is old, and sorry for bumping it, but it would have fitted just in here:

In a by-election in the Western Hungarian seat of Veszprem, the independent candidate Zoltan Kesz won by 9 points over a Fidesz candidate, after the former MP (from Fidesz) went to Brussels to serve in the European Commission. The seat was won by Fidesz by over 20% in the 2014 election.

This would not be that memorable normally, however, this loss for Fidesz means that Orban now has lost his 2/3 majority in the Hungarian Parliament. This by-election so is seen as a message to Orban and Fidesz, who have lost popularity in Hungary in recent months. According to late polls, Fidesz is now only supported by 24% of the Hungarians. (They got 48% in the last election)

See this article: Hungarian Voters Clip Orban's Wings With By-Election Upset

Good news! Hopefully, they will be wiped out at the next general election.

[YL]

The by-election result seems like good news, but regarding the poll the article says that 42% were undecided, Fidesz's 24% was still enough to get them first place, and that Jobbik were second on 12%.