Hungary Parliamentary Election - April 6, 2014

[Tender Branson]

A parliamentary election will be held in Hungary on 6 April 2014.

It will be the first election according to the new Constitution of Hungary which went into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election will have a single round. The voters will elect 199 MPs instead of previous 386 lawmakers.

...

Main parties:

Fidesz–KDNP (conservative, polls around 48-52% right now)
Unity (center-left opposition, polls around 25-30% right now)
Jobbik (neo-Nazis, polls around 15-20% right now)
LMP (Greens, polls around 2-5% right now)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

...

Anyway, this will be a very depressing election ...

[Zanas]

The election is basically already rigged by the electoral law Fidesz tailored for themselves. Hungary is verging on dictatorship if it keeps going the same way...

I guess my one and only possible satisfaction out of this election would be Jobbik underperforming...

[Diouf]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

The economy looks to be doing rather well, which will probably help the current government further, and perhaps weaken the attractivity of Jobbik. Hungary has exited the EU's excessive deficit procedure and unemployment has dropped to 8.3 %; it was 11.2 % in January 2013.

There will be live blogging on election day on the site below which looks decent.

http://www.politics.hu/20140403/politics-hu-to-liveblog-hungarys-2014-national-elections/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Tender Branson]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

Ours was also re-elected last year ...

[politicus]

A parliamentary election will be held in Hungary on 6 April 2014.

It will be the first election according to the new Constitution of Hungary which went into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election will have a single round. The voters will elect 199 MPs instead of previous 386 lawmakers.

...

Main parties:

Fidesz–KDNP (conservative, polls around 48-52% right now)
Unity (center-left opposition, polls around 25-30% right now)
Jobbik (neo-Nazis, polls around 15-20% right now)
LMP (Greens, polls around 2-5% right now)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2014

...

Anyway, this will be a very depressing election ...

Not really, neo-Fascists or ultranationalists/radical nationalists is more accurate.

[Diouf]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

Ours was also re-elected last year ...

Of course. Hope I didn't forget any other election.

[Famous Mortimer]

The election is basically already rigged by the electoral law Fidesz tailored for themselves. Hungary is verging on dictatorship if it keeps going the same way...

No. Just no.

[YL]

Here's a concise description of the electoral system:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(from http://www.electionresources.org/hu/)

Also, there's a 5% threshold for the d'Hondt seats.

With nearly 50% of the vote, Fidesz should get quite a big majority under that system: they will get rather more of the d'Hondt seats than they would under a German or Scottish style system.

[YL]

Scary poll:

Fidesz 47%
Unity 23%
Jobbik 21% (ugh)
others below 5% threshold
(percentages of decided voters)

[politicus]

Scary poll:

Fidesz 47%
Unity 23%
Jobbik 21% (ugh)
others below 5% threshold
(percentages of decided voters)

Its better than a scenario in which Fidesz needs Jobbik to gain a majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hm, what happened to the LMP? Were they just a flash in the pan?

[RodPresident]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

Ours was also re-elected last year ...

Of course. Hope I didn't forget any other election.

Did you forget Frau Angela's reelection?

[Diouf]

This looks like the first EU government re-election since October 2011 in Poland, I believe.

Ours was also re-elected last year ...

Of course. Hope I didn't forget any other election.

Did you forget Frau Angela's reelection?

No, that was not a government re-election

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Its better than a scenario in which Fidesz needs Jobbik to gain a majority.
[/quote]

Fidesz never said that they would built a coalition with Jobbik. I know that there are strong prejudices against Hungary respectively Fidesz, but not all of it corresponds to the reality. There are a lot of reasons, why FIDESZ is still heading the polls. Two are, that the hungarians still remember the bad job the last left-wing goverment has done and that FIDESZ ist not neoliberal.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hm, what happened to the LMP? Were they just a flash in the pan?

Half of them broke away and joined the Hungarian Socialist Party's Unity coalition.

[politicus]

Fidesz never said that they would built a coalition with Jobbik. I know that there are strong prejudices against Hungary respectively Fidesz, but not all of it corresponds to the reality. There are a lot of reasons, why FIDESZ is still heading the polls. Two are, that the hungarians still remember the bad job the last left-wing goverment has done and that FIDESZ ist not neoliberal.

Never claimed they would form an alliance, but such a situation would be highly unstable and chaotic.

Also: quote properly.

EDIT: I agree that Fidesz is demonized too much, but on the other hand they clearly have enacted policies that puts them out of the mainstream of centre-right/conservative European parties, to put it mildly.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Fidesz never said that they would built a coalition with Jobbik. I know that there are strong prejudices against Hungary respectively Fidesz, but not all of it corresponds to the reality. There are a lot of reasons, why FIDESZ is still heading the polls. Two are, that the hungarians still remember the bad job the last left-wing goverment has done and that FIDESZ ist not neoliberal.

Never claimed they would form an alliance, but such a situation would be highly unstable and chaotic.

Also: quote properly.

EDIT: I agree that Fidesz is demonized too much, but on the other hand they clearly have enacted policies that puts them out of the mainstream of centre-right/conservative European parties, to put it mildly.

You are quite right. Fidesz is not the western European center-right mainstream. They are still patriotic, still not politically correct and still not adapted to a left-liberal Mainstream of the politico-journalistic class. The western cultural and political left does not like their lack of subjection, as it has an allergy against right-wing self awareness. That is the main reason for the incrimination by biased media. But understand me correctly, I'm not a Fidesz appologet, there is a lot to criticize, for example, that they have spoken out against antisemitism, but still not far-reaching enough, they could be more friendly towards market economy and freetrade etc., but I defend them against unjustified, arrogant accusations of political correctness. And finally, why is the far right Jobbik gaining 10-20%, when Fidesz allegedly is already far right? I would compare Fidesz to the former french RPR with poujadist elements: patriotic, conservative, statist, interventionist, rather than classical liberal.

[RodPresident]

Fidesz started as a young right-wing neoliberal party, but failure of Democratic Forum government made them  to have to absorve historical anticommunist and nationalist vote. Órban's second term is a Hungarian version of Putin with increased nationalism and social conservatism with a new constitution. Opposition is not very well managed and they made a suicidal strategy accepting Gyurcsány back.

[YL]

Guardian editorial: "Not fixed but not fair"

[Diouf]

A mandate calculator: http://www.valasztasirendszer.hu/mandatum/

You can fill out the turnout, and the percentage of the votes that each party/coalition gets in Hungary and from hungarians abroad, and it will calculate the number of seats for each party.

[politicus]

Fidesz never said that they would built a coalition with Jobbik. I know that there are strong prejudices against Hungary respectively Fidesz, but not all of it corresponds to the reality. There are a lot of reasons, why FIDESZ is still heading the polls. Two are, that the Hungarians still remember the bad job the last left-wing government has done and that FIDESZ its not neoliberal.

Never claimed they would form an alliance, but such a situation would be highly unstable and chaotic.

Also: quote properly.

EDIT: I agree that Fidesz is demonized too much, but on the other hand they clearly have enacted policies that puts them out of the mainstream of centre-right/conservative European parties, to put it mildly.

You are quite right. Fidesz is not the western European center-right mainstream. They are still patriotic, still not politically correct and still not adapted to a left-liberal Mainstream of the politico-journalistic class. The western cultural and political left does not like their lack of subjection, as it has an allergy against right-wing self awareness. That is the main reason for the incrimination by biased media. But understand me correctly, I'm not a Fidesz appologet, there is a lot to criticize, for example, that they have spoken out against antisemitism, but still not far-reaching enough, they could be more friendly towards market economy and freetrade etc., but I defend them against unjustified, arrogant accusations of political correctness. And finally, why is the far right Jobbik gaining 10-20%, when Fidesz allegedly is already far right? I would compare Fidesz to the former french RPR with poujadist elements: patriotic, conservative, statist, interventionist, rather than classical liberal.

That's rather irrelevant. The crucial thing is they are outside of the right-liberal/Conservative Western European mainstream. Most political journalists in Western Europe are centre-right, and so are the dominant newspapers, so a "left liberal mainstream" doesn't really exist. A liberal mainstream in the broadest sense of the label "liberal" is more like it.

Fidesz started as a young right-wing neoliberal party.

Yeah, its quite ironic that they started out as young liberal rebels.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

48% Fidesz
26% Unity
22% Jobbik
  3% LMP
  1% Others

Turnout: 65%

Fidesz gets about 135-145 seats in the new 199 member parliament (2/3 majority), because they will win basically all direct seats.

[Tender Branson]

This is an awesome clickable map:

http://valasztas.otthonterkep.hu

If my translation skills are correct, the clickable features from top to bottom mean:

* the new gerrymandered, blank 2014 districts and if you click on them, every candidate

* the 2010 election results in the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* the 2006 election results in the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* 2014 seat projection, using the new gerrymandered 2014 districts

* 2010 results, using the old election districts

[Tender Branson]

Turnout chart (compared with 1st round of 2010):

[Tender Branson]

Turnout by region at 9am: