WI-6: Grothman to primary Petri

[windjammer]

Leans R with Grothman, Safe R with anyone else. This is light-red, right?

Is 53% Romney is Wisconsin really "light red"?

Obama carried this district in 2008.

So, is Indiana light red??

Obviously! Especially since democrats are relatively good in Indiana. They hold the majority of US house seats before 2012, Donnelly won the senate seat in 2012, and the gubernational seat was quite competitive in 2012 too!

[free my dawg]

Leans R with Grothman, Safe R with anyone else. This is light-red, right?

Is 53% Romney is Wisconsin really "light red"?

Obama carried this district in 2008.

Well if Camp's district is safe (which is around the same PVI as Petri's), even with turnout boosted by a competitive Senate/gubernatorial election, I don't see why Petri's isn't.

[DrScholl]

In comparison to WI-5, WI-6 is light red. Light red seats can be safe, just not the same level of safe of districts that are dark red.

In this case, it would not be safe if Grothman was the nominee. If Michele Bachmann had problems in an R+10, then Grothman could certainly have issues in a less red seat. Grothman is worse than Bachmann, much more so.

[TJ in Oregon]

It's medium red

WI-6 has 3 counties that voted for Obama in 2012: Columbia, Marquette, and Winnebago. Not all of Winnebago is in WI-6, but the part that isn't is pretty Republican. Obama won Columbia by about 4000 votes, Winnebago by about 3000 votes, and Marquette by a whopping 22 votes (Marquette is tiny). I suspect the part of Winnebago cut off was intentionally selected to send some Republicans to WI-8 since they'd be needed more there.

It also has 4 entire counties that voted for McCain in 2008: Fon du Lac, Sheboygan, Green Lake, and Ozaukee. Romney won these 4 by a combined roughly 33,000 votes and it's hard to imagine either Fon du Lac or Ozaukee being won by the Democrat absent a scandal (and even then Ozaukee probably wouldn't). Part of Dodge County, which was won by McCain, is also in this district. Bill Clinton won Sheboygan County in the 1996 blowout, but that was a long time ago.

This leaves Waushara and Manitowoc Counties as the only others in the district (plus a tiny sliver of Milwaukee County with some of the more Republican North Shore suburbs), both of which were won by Romney (by a substantial margin in the case of Waushara). Manitowoc could conceivably give the right Democrat a good margin of victory. A blue collar moderate type could do very well here and could probably keep Sheboygan respectably close, but it would be hard for the Democrats to win.

In any case, Grothman has a huge uphill battle to climb in the primary because his only base would be Ozaukee County. A Republican from Sheboygan, Fon du Lac, Oshkosh, or Manitowoc would have a much easier road through the primary. I suspect with Grothman it's still Likely R and Safe R without him.

East Central WI is a part of the state where McCain did much worse than Romney and was something of an aberration (see Green Bay as well).

[Gass3268]

Grothman is against the United States being anti-"Kill the Gay's" in Uganda.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/steven_elbow/glenn-grothman-blasts-u-s-moves-against-draconian-ugandan-homosexuality/article_ea072139-28d3-5019-be2e-13dd01e83029.html

[windjammer]

Democrats need Grothman!!!

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Grothman is against the United States being anti-"Kill the Gay's" in Uganda.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/steven_elbow/glenn-grothman-blasts-u-s-moves-against-draconian-ugandan-homosexuality/article_ea072139-28d3-5019-be2e-13dd01e83029.html

Here's hoping he wins the primary, he'll either be a) totally unelectable even in this medium red district or b) make Republicans everywhere look bad, a la Michelle Bachmann

[free my dawg]

Also worth  noting that Musgrave's district was R+6.

I'm praying Grothman wins too - if Musgrave's insane enough to keep this perpetually competitive then so is he.

[windjammer]

Also worth  noting that Musgrave's district was R+6.

I'm praying Grothman wins too - if Musgrave's insane enough to keep this perpetually competitive then so is he.

No seriously, Musgrave looks like a radical NARAL activist compared with him!

[Badger]

What's the PVI of his senate district? It's hard to imagine a district in WI that would elect a loon like this.

[free my dawg]

What's the PVI of his senate district? It's hard to imagine a district in WI that would elect a loon like this.

R+17, according to Windjammer's data. Most Republican district in WI.

[windjammer]

Seriously, no chance to pick up his senate seat.
However, Joseph Leibham, the state senate from the 9th seat, who is the current president pro tempore, is interested too. And his district is only R+3 and Obama carried this by 4 point in 2008.
The best that could happen:
-democrat pick up in the 9th seat
-Grothman wins the primaries and loses because he's crazy.