Congratulations Representative Grothman
Good luck surviving 2016.
WHAT? First of all, Grothman lives far outside the district and will have difficulty competing with the district's own politicians. Secondly, this is a district Obama barely carried in 2008 (when he won the country by 7 percentage points, so R+7), but then it swung at a significantly higher-than-average level to the Republicans in 2012 (Romney won it by 7 points while Obama won the country by 4, so R+11). That's barely gettable in a wave year (and Grothman would be a flawed incumbent should he win), but I don't think Grothman would be likelier to lose reelection than to win. This is a pretty red district.
I agree. Grothman would make the seat vunerable, as he is insane. I know that word gets thrown around a lot when describing the far-right, but Grothman is unlikable, mean, and literally insane. He introduced a bill to ban weekends.
However, this retirement is sure to draw in other Republicans (State Rep. Duey Stroebel is already considering), who are much more likely to win the nomination. This seat is red, and Obama only on it in 2008 because he over performed in Wisconsin.
I'll call this Safe R unless Grothman really builds up steam.
