Congratulations Representative Grothman
Good luck surviving 2016.
WHAT? First of all, Grothman lives far outside the district and will have difficulty competing with the district's own politicians. Secondly, this is a district Obama
barely carried in 2008 (when he won the country by 7 percentage points, so R+7), but then it swung at a significantly higher-than-average level to the Republicans in 2012 (Romney won it by 7 points while Obama won the country by 4, so R+11). That's barely gettable in a wave year (and Grothman would be a flawed incumbent should he win), but I don't think Grothman would be likelier to lose reelection than to win. This is a pretty red district.
