Senate Ratings

[JerryArkansas]

Post all ratings for senate here.

[publicunofficial]

Safe D
Rhode Island (Reed)
Delaware (Coons)
New Jersey (Booker)
Hawaii-Special (Schatz)
New Mexico (Udall)
Illinois (Durbin)

Likely D
New Hampshire (Hassan)
Oregon (Merkley)
Minnesota (Franken)
Virginia (Warner)

Lean D
Colorado (Udall)
Michigan (OPEN)
Iowa (OPEN)

Toss-Up/Tilt D
Alaska (Begich)

Toss-Up
Louisiana (Landrieu)
North Carolina (Hagan)

Toss-Up/Tilt R:
Kentucky (McConnell)

Lean R
Montana (Walsh)
Arkansas (Pryor)
West Virginia (OPEN)
Georgia (OPEN)

Likely R
Mississippi (Cochran)
South Dakota (OPEN)

Safe R

Idaho (Risch)
Wyoming (Enzi)
Nebraska (OPEN)
Kansas (Roberts)
Oklahoma (Inhofe)
Oklahoma-Special (OPEN)
Texas (Cornyn)
Tennessee (Alexander)
Alabama (Sessions)
South Carolina (Graham)
South Carolina-Special (Scott)
Maine (Collins)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup/Lean D
MI
NC
Ak

Pure tossup
KY
LA
GA

GOP takeaways
AR
Mnt
SD
WVa

[IceSpear]

[SPC]

Safe R (>95% chance of victory)
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

Likely R (>85% chance of victory)
Mississippi
Montana
West Virginia

Lean R (>60% chance of victory)
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossup (no point in saying which side is favored at this point, since it will likely change by election day)
Alaska
Arkansas (moved from Lean R due to Talk Business poll)
Colorado
Iowa (moved from Lean D due to shrinking Braley polling leads)
North Carolina

Lean D
Michigan (moved from Tossup due to recent Peters polling leads)
New Hampshire

Likely D
Minnesota
Oregon

Safe D
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Rhode Island
Virginia

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Safe D
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island


Strong D
Hawaii (special)
New Jersey
Oregon

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia

Toss-Up
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina
South Dakota
West Virginia

Lean R
Georgia
Maine
Nebraska

Strong R
Mississippi
Oklahoma (special)
South Carolina
South Carolina (special)
Tennessee


Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's a screen shot:



I've been going back and forth with Iowa for awhile, but decided to keep it at Likely D for now. Eventually many of these races will go to the ends of the chart as we become more sure of who will win. Also click the link in my signature or click here to get another look. Although I haven't updated my profile prediction in a few weeks, so some things may look goofy/off.

On a side not, I think this forum has a major bias that distorts reality when it comes to rating these elections, and its usually out of political motivation and optimism, and hopefully it'll stop soon once we know much more information about who's running.

Safe D
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Rhode Island


Strong D
Hawaii (special)
New Jersey
Oregon

Lean D
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia

Toss-Up
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina
South Dakota
West Virginia

Lean R
Georgia
Maine
Nebraska

Strong R
Mississippi
Oklahoma (special)
South Carolina
South Carolina (special)
Tennessee


Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming

My advice: Learn what the definition of "Toss-Up" and "Lean" mean.

[Potatoe]

Sorry if this has been asked before, how do you do these?

[morgieb]

Safe D
Rhode Island
Illinois
Delaware
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Hawaii (Special)

Likely D
Virginia
Minnesota
Oregon
New Hampshire

Lean D
Iowa
Colorado

Toss-up
Michigan
North Carolina
Louisiana
Alaska
Kentucky
Georgia

Lean R
Arkansas
Montana

Likely R
West Virginia
Mississippi

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Nebraska
Oklahoma A+B
South Carolina A+B
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

As for primaries (will only do ones which appear vaguely competitive):

Hawaii D: Toss-up (Hanabusa is lucky she's running here rather than another state. Otherwise she would be DOA. If I had to pick a favourite though, it'd be Schatz)
Georgia R: Toss-up (Perdue was looking good for a while, but his gaffe could well hurt him. Hard to say who wins now, Kingston probably deserves favouritism but I have my doubts over his base support)
North Carolina R: Toss-up (hard to call. Very likely a two-horse race though. NFI who the favourite is here)
Mississippi R: Toss-up (I thought Cochran was starting to take charge, but his campaign seems to be struggling and polls are suggesting a tight race)
Oklahoma-B R: Lean Shannon (Shannon is gaining most of the conservative support, Lankford is struggling despite his profile)
Iowa R: Lean Ernst (weak field, Ernst seems to be getting most of the support though)
Alaska R: Likely Sullivan (Treadwell is imploding, Miller is lol)
Montana D: Likely Walsh (Bohlinger not getting any traction, most people are calling the race already)
Kentucky R: Likely McConnell (doesn't look like Bevin is getting enough traction to really theaten McConnell, but if the Tea Party was to truly target anyone, it would probably be the Senate leader)
Maine R: Likely Collins (mainly because Collins is a moderate, but it is Maine and she's popular there. Don't think Bennett has much of a shot here)
Tennessee R: Likely Alexander (haven't heard much here. I did see a poll early on showing that Alexander was vulnerable, but he deserves favouritism for now)
South Carolina-A R: Lean Graham (the run-off hurts Graham, but I have my doubts over whether a conservative challenger can conceal conservatives around him)
Kansas R: Likely Roberts (probably more vulnerable than Collins/Capito but less so than McConnell/Alexander. Roberts has a lot of the party on his side and Wolf hasn't gained a lot of traction, but Kansas has shifted hard right recently)
West Virginia R: Likely Capito (mainly because the conservative base isn't particularly SMC friendly. NFI if McGeehan is still running though)
New Hampshire R: Likely Brown (Smith is lol, others feel like no names)
Nebraska R: Lean Sasse (Obsorn peaked too early IMO. I wouldn't rule out a 2012 repeat either)
Oregon R: Toss-up (really have NFI here)

[Donerail]

Overall pretty similar to ElectionsGuy.

[free my dawg]

Safe D
Rhode Island
Illinois
Delaware
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Mexico
Hawaii (Special)
Virginia

Likely D
Minnesota
Oregon
New Hampshire

Lean D
Michigan
Iowa
Colorado

Toss-up
North Carolina
Louisiana
Alaska

Tilts R
Georgia

Lean R
Kentucky
Arkansas
Montana

Likely R
West Virginia
Mississippi

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Nebraska
Oklahoma A+B
South Carolina A+B
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

As for primaries (will only do ones which appear vaguely competitive):

Hawaii D: Tilts Schatz
Georgia R: Toss-up
North Carolina R: Tilts Brannon (because of the runoff)
Mississippi R: Tilt Cochran
Oklahoma-B R: Toss-up
Iowa R: Lean Ernst
Alaska R: Likely Sullivan (lol miller)
Montana D: Safe Walsh
Kentucky R: Likely McConnell
Maine R: Safe Collins
Tennessee R: Likely Alexander
South Carolina-A R: Lean Graham
Kansas R: Likely Roberts (Not huge on Wolf at all.)
West Virginia R: Does Capito even have a challenger?

[Deus Naturae]

Safe D:
DE
HI
IL
MA
MN
NH
NJ
OR
RI
VA

Likely D:
IA

Lean D:
CO

Toss-Up:
AK
LA
MI
NC

Lean R:
AR
GA
KY

Likely R:
MT
WV

Safe R:
AL
ID
KS
ME
MS
NE
OK
OK (S)
SC
SC (S)
SD
TN
TX
WY

[free my dawg]

Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.
Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - If Shaheen defines Scott Brown as a carpetbagger, she will defeat him. On the other hand, Brown is a skilled candidate who has won in one of the bluest states in the nation, and he might just neutralize the attacks that Democrats throw at him.\

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.

[Miles]

Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.

Djou dropped to CD1 and the Republicans just have 2 some dudes who've lost before.

[free my dawg]

Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.
Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - If Shaheen defines Scott Brown as a carpetbagger, she will defeat him. On the other hand, Brown is a skilled candidate who has won in one of the bluest states in the nation, and he might just neutralize the attacks that Democrats throw at him.\

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.

Fine, you say my predictions are "ridiculous", but why? I'd like to know your reasoning.

For me, Likely D or Likely R means that the party in favor has about a 90-95% chance of winning, but hey, if you guys on this thread think that Schatz has a 100% chance of winning, that is fine by me. Unknown candidates can win given a few lucky breaks, and I just accounted for that in HI.

This isn't an unknown candidate, though. This is an arch-conservative perennial candidate in (arguably) the bluest state in the union, boosted by Obama turnout.

I don't even think we need to go over why putting NH at Tilts D is ridiculous.

[publicunofficial]

Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.
Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - If Shaheen defines Scott Brown as a carpetbagger, she will defeat him. On the other hand, Brown is a skilled candidate who has won in one of the bluest states in the nation, and he might just neutralize the attacks that Democrats throw at him.\

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.

Fine, you say my predictions are "ridiculous", but why? I'd like to know your reasoning.

For me, Likely D or Likely R means that the party in favor has about a 90-95% chance of winning, but hey, if you guys on this thread think that Schatz has a 100% chance of winning, that is fine by me. Unknown candidates can win given a few lucky breaks, and I just accounted for that in HI.

By that definition, everyone who has AN opponent should be rated Likely D/R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA senate may be the Wildcard in the senate due Gov Deal corruption . It may be the one race to watch out for, not KY that may stop us from losing Senate control.

[SWE]

Lean D
Minnesota
New Mexico
Virginia

Toss-Up
Arkansas
Iowa
South Dakota
West Virginia

Lean R
Maine
Nebraska

You might want to rethink some of these, Oldies. You're shockingly overestimating Democratic chances here in some of these Senate races while MN, NM and VA won't fall to the GOP even in a GOP year.

Here's a screen shot:



On a side note, I think this forum has a major bias that distorts reality when it comes to rating these elections, and it's usually out of political motivation and optimism, and hopefully it'll stop soon once we know much more information about who's running.

That seems a little hypocritical considering that chart looks a little bit optimistic for Republicans since you put MT as likely R (underestimating Walsh), SD as safe R (giving Weiland or Pressler zero chance), VA as likely D (overestimating Gillespie), MN as likely D (underestimating Franken) and keeping both GA and KY in the "lean" column. Mine's a tad optimistic to, but come on, everyone's predictions are going to come off as a little biased to just about anyone else especially those in another party.

Sorry if this has been asked before, how do you do these?

It looks like they're doing them on Excel.

Those are all pretty reasonable predictions

[free my dawg]

Likely D
Hawaii - Schatz should probably end up winning, but the Republicans do have an outside chance at winning if the national political environment deteriorates or the Democrats actually end up infighting and splitting the liberal white and Asian-American coalition in the state.
Tossup/Tilt D
New Hampshire - If Shaheen defines Scott Brown as a carpetbagger, she will defeat him. On the other hand, Brown is a skilled candidate who has won in one of the bluest states in the nation, and he might just neutralize the attacks that Democrats throw at him.\

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.

Fine, you say my predictions are "ridiculous", but why? I'd like to know your reasoning.

For me, Likely D or Likely R means that the party in favor has about a 90-95% chance of winning, but hey, if you guys on this thread think that Schatz has a 100% chance of winning, that is fine by me. Unknown candidates can win given a few lucky breaks, and I just accounted for that in HI.

By that definition, everyone who has AN opponent should be rated Likely D/R.

After the primaries, I admit that I probably will change HI to Safe D. Still, it seems a bit petty to argue about an election that probably won't impact the overall balance of power in the Senate.

But yeah, the special election was less about Brown being strong (which there's absolutely no doubt he is) and Coakley being very weak (and essentially believing she'd walk into the seat).

At most, a third-party candidate will spoil his campaign. Conservatives don't like him, and neither do liberals or the die-hard NHites. Whatever moderates the NHGOP gains from nominating Brown will be lost from conservatives crossing over to Blevens/Baldasaro (if he runs as an indie).

[Tender Branson]

Basically this as of right now:

The OK and SC special elections are of course "Strong GOP".

Dark blue indicates pickups for the GOP.

IA and CO are probably "very slight Dem", but could turn into real tossups the next months.

The Republicans have a chance to net 10 seats this election, but for this everything has to work out 100% for them, which is unlikely.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama- Safe R- Sessions is beyond safe.

Alaska- Lean R unless Miller is the GOP nominee

Arkansas- Safe R- This seat would be gone even in a good year for Democrats...

Colorado- Tossup Tilt/D- Still think Hickenlooper is more likely to go down

Delaware- Safe D- Coons is safe, in Primary and General

Georgia- Tossup- Only way this doesn't go to the wire (and a runoff) is if Nunn doesn't win the Democratic Primary, or if Derrick Grayson or Art Gardner win the GOP primary... since neither has a particularly remote chance of happening, this a tossup.

Illinois- Likely D- If we get into a situation worse than 2010 (which if the election was held today is entirely possible) This race could be a tossup.

Idaho- Safe R- Risch is safer than safe.

Iowa- Likely D- Only way this moves to Safe D in my book is if Clovis is the GOP nominee.

Kansas- Safe R, even if Milton Wolf beats Roberts... Brownback, on the other hand, looks like he's in real trouble

Kentucky- Lean D if McConnell wins GOP Primary, Likely D if Bevin wins GOP Primary... The lack of a runoff, may save Republicans in Georgia, but KO McConnell.

Louisiana- Lean R- Somehow it gets worse each cycle for Mary Landrieu... She's in better shape than Pryor because Louisiana's been ruby-red for awhile, while Pryor has to adapt (and hasn't done well)

Maine- Likely R- Collins is probably safe, but if the climate improves for Democrats, Bellows could catch fire.

Massachusetts- Safe D, Scott Brown probably should have run here.

Michigan- Tossup Tilt/R- Lynn Land has been in hot water recently, but this race is likely tied to Governor Snyder's future.

Minnesota- Safe D, Al Franken, may even be a dark horse VP contender for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Mississippi- Lean R, Childers presence will make this competitive whether or not Cochran loses, but for him to win McDaniel will need to, win the primary, and probably be convicted of murder before the election.

Montana- Likely R- I'm in the camp of people that believes Walsh's appointment doesn't help (and he may lose to the primary to Bohlinger or Adams)

Nebraska- Safe R, Although Republicans don't seem interested in this race either.

New Hampshire- Likely D- Scott Brown could make this interesting if he wins a GOP Primary, While Bob Smith winning the Primary would show the total opposite situation.

New Jersey- Safe D- Booker was in more danger against Lonegan than now.

New Mexico- Safe D, The other Udall is Safe.

North Carolina- Lean R, if Tillis wins GOP Primary, Tossup/Tilt R if Brannon or Harris win, Tossup/Tilt D with any other GOP candidate.

Oklahoma "A"- Safe R

Oklahoma "B"- Safe R

Oregon- Likely D, If the Oregon GOP could get stronger candidates, this race could be even more competitive.

Rhode Island- Safe D, Reed is safe

South Carolina "A"- Likely R, Graham losing in a primary will make it interesting, but even that won't be enough.

South Carolina "B"- Safe R

South Dakota- Safe R- This seat was likely gone even if Johnson didn't retire.

Tennessee- Safe R

Texas- With Stockman losing, this race moves to Safe R

Virginia- Likely D- Warner's not going to lose, but Gillispie does pose a tougher threat than he probably expected.

West Virginia- Likely R- There's room for Tennant to pull off an upset, but it will probably require resurrecting the ghost of Robert Byrd.

Wyoming- Safe R


 

[SWE]

Illinois- Likely D- If we get into a situation worse than 2010 (which if the election was held today is entirely possible) This race could be a tossup.

What?

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Bevin would no doubt have a better chance of winning than McConnell

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Republicans are at an advantage if their only candidate who trails Hagan in the pools is the nominee?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Alabama- Safe R

Alaska- Lean D, Begich has been running an excellent campaign.

Arkansas- Lean R, Pryor's had the state pulled out from under him

Colorado- Likely D, Gardner is overrated and just as crazy as Buck (and his personhood flip-flopping doesn't help his cause)

Delaware- Safe D

Georgia- Lean R, though this becomes Tossup/Tilt D if Broun or Gingrey are the nominee

Illinois- Safe D, Durbin is no Giannoulias and Oberweis is no Kirk

Idaho- Safe R

Iowa- Likely D, Braley has diarrhea of the mouth but his opponents are crap

Kansas- Safe R

Kentucky- Tossup/Tilt D, McConnell is so unpopular that his state's strong Republican lean can't save him (though a pro-GOP environment in November could push him over the line), though this goes to Lean R if Bevin wins the primary

Louisiana- Tossup/Tilt D, Landrieu should have big support from the oil and gas industry and she's survived situations like this before (remeber Operation Icing on the Cake?), but Louisiana is more Republican than Arkansas and that may do her in

Maine- Safe R, a sitting Congressman couldn't defeat her in 2008 of all years, Bellows won't defeat her now

Massachusetts- Safe D

Michigan- Lean D, all the polls showing Land ahead are the ones that had Romney tied or ahead in Michigan

Minnesota- Safe D, he's come a long way from his 312-vote win in 2008

Mississippi- Likely R, McDaniels could make this interesting but Mississippi is extremely inelastic

Montana- Lean R, Walsh really has a steep climb if he wants to win

Nebraska- Safe R

New Hampshire- Likely D, Scott Brown squandered his career by running here

New Jersey- Safe D

New Mexico- Safe D

North Carolina- Lean D, Tillis will make this a referendum on the legislature and Republicans will lose that referendum

Oklahoma "A"- Safe R

Oklahoma "B"- Safe R

Oregon- Safe D

Rhode Island- Safe D

South Carolina "A"- Safe R

South Carolina "B"- Safe R

South Dakota- Safe R

Tennessee- Safe R

Texas- Safe R

Virginia- Safe D, Gillespie is extremely overrated

West Virginia- Likely R, the state is too far gone

Wyoming- Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Competetive seats:

AK/ARK pure tossups
KY Leans R
LA/Ga Leans R in runoff
NC/IA/CO/MI are must win tipping pt states.

5 seat net gain for GOP

[Tender Branson]

Update (IA & MI to "Slight DEM"):

The OK and SC special elections are of course "Strong GOP".