Where would Obama be today if he had lost in 2008?

[Nichlemn]

Did he run for re-election to the Senate, or Governor, or even retire altogether?

Did he consider a rematch in 2012? How would the primaries have gone?

[IceSpear]

Just my guess:

2010: Obama is re-elected to the Senate
2012: Hillary defeats McCain
2016: Hillary defeats Romney
2020: Obama defeats whichever Republican is the nominee

[SPC]

Just my guess:

2010: Obama is re-elected to the Senate
2012: Hillary defeats McCain
2016: Hillary defeats Romney
2020: Obama defeats whichever Republican is the nominee

Why would Democrats turn toward a failed previous nominee?

[IceSpear]

Just my guess:

2010: Obama is re-elected to the Senate
2012: Hillary defeats McCain
2016: Hillary defeats Romney
2020: Obama defeats whichever Republican is the nominee

Why would Democrats turn toward a failed previous nominee?

A few reasons:

- The trend of a failed nominee retreating into obscurity is not absolute. Of course there's Adlai Stevenson and Walter Mondale. Al Gore would've won the nomination in 2004 had he run. Many Republicans are clamoring for Romney to run again in 2016. And these were all consecutive elections. Obama would've had 12 years to "come back" from his loss.

- Obama would likely still have much of his celebrity appeal despite his loss. I know it's hard to remember now, but the "Obama will be the messiah!" movement was very strong in 2008. I'm exaggerating of course, but you know the type of people I'm talking about. I highly doubt the huge Obama fans would blame him for his loss, they'd blame the country for being stupid enough to choose McCain over him.

- He would have his age going for him. He'd still be in his 50s in 2020. Not like many other failed nominees who begin approaching old age (even by politician standards) were they to run again.

- Obama would still have a platform in the Senate throughout this period, which helps keep him visible to the Democratic electorate.

- Much like how the tantalizing prospect of a female president has led to a near guarantee of a woman being the nominee in 2016 (regardless of whether or not Hillary runs), the prospect of an African American president and how close they came will be fresh in the minds of much of the Democratic base.

If Obama lost in 2008, the only way I could see him not running for president again is if he lost in an enormous landslide.

[Nichlemn]

How Obama came to lose would matter.

If all of history played out pretty much the same way it actually did until Election Day, then McCain won a miracle, the narrative would probably have been "massive undetected racial animus stopped Obama from winning". It would stoke up some indignation, but would also cause party elites to shy away from supporting an African-American for President for a long time.

If instead history changed earlier, for instance the financial crisis never happened, the post-Palin bounce didn't fade and then McCain won a close election in line with the polls, then Obama would probable emerge in a respectable position. However, it would still have seemed a disappointment give his leads prior to the conventions.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, the easiest path for him to lose in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination rather than him (just shift a few % of the primary vote her way in all the early states, then haver her build on that early momentum in the later contests).  Clinton is elected president in 2008 rather than Obama, and Obama stays in the Senate and bides his time until 2016, when he runs for president again.

Heck, if he plays his cards right, he might even emerge as the early overwhelming favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination*, just like Hillary Clinton is in real life!

* Why Obama, and not Clinton's sitting vice president?  Well, I think incumbent VP Ted Strickland is a bit old to run for president on his own in 2016.

[heatmaster]

Obama would not have tried again, the Democrats would have gone with Hillary in 2012 & who ever was her chosen successor.

[Mordecai]

Just my guess:

2010: Obama is re-elected to the Senate
2012: Hillary defeats McCain
2016: Hillary defeats Romney
2020: Obama defeats whichever Republican is the nominee

Why would Democrats turn toward a failed previous nominee?

That's what they're doing in 2016 with Hillary.

Obama being defeated in 2008 is kind of unthinkable, unless the financial crisis happens in 2009 instead or if McCain chooses a better running mate or something. But it's not like that would be the end of his career, he was 47 years old in 2008 and had been a Senator for less than three years. He could still wait 8, 12, heck even 20 years to run for President again.

[bballrox4717]

Most likely serving as Illinois' governor. It's not much of a secret that Obama wasn't happy in the Senate.

If Obama lost to McCain, I don't think he plans another presidential run. He wins the governor's race, and if the opportunity to run again rises in 2016 or 2020, he takes it.

If Hillary became president, Obama likely attempts to position himself for 2016 through being governor and makes amends with Hillary for her support..

If Hillary loses to McCain in 2008, Obama runs for a second term as senator in 2010, wins in another wipe out and runs for president again.

[Maxwell]

2010: Obama beats Brady 62-32 for Governor
2012: Senator Clinton defeats Vice President Palin 53-44.
2014: Obama wins re-election 71-28
2016: President Clinton wins re-election against Romney 51-49
2018: Obama announces retirement from politics.

[Del Tachi]

If for some reason his loss in 2008 was because he "spoiled" himself thus making a future career in politics unfathomable, he could probably do pretty well in academia.

[SPC]

Just my guess:

2010: Obama is re-elected to the Senate
2012: Hillary defeats McCain
2016: Hillary defeats Romney
2020: Obama defeats whichever Republican is the nominee

Why would Democrats turn toward a failed previous nominee?

That's what they're doing in 2016 with Hillary.

Hillary never lost a general election.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Obama had lost to McCain in 2008, what would've happened to Blagojevich?

I don't think he would have ran for the Executive Mansion in 2010. I do see him easily winning reelection to the U.S. Senate.

On Dem party elders: if they pulled a Bradley effect on Obama, I could see damaged relationships between the party and minority groups, that would never recover.

I also don't see Obama going for the White House again in 2016.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick (D) likely would have ran in 2016-assuming McCain won reelection against Hillary in 2012.

[Maxwell]

If Obama had lost to McCain in 2008, what would've happened to Blagojevich?

2010: Rod Blagojevich is term-limited
2012: Blago, in an insane move, primaries Senator Durbin, loses by 70-26
2013: Corruption charges for all sorts of money laundering
2014: Goes to jail.

[Franzl]

If Obama had lost to McCain in 2008, what would've happened to Blagojevich?

2010: Rod Blagojevich is term-limited
2012: Blago, in an insane move, primaries Senator Durbin, loses by 70-26
2013: Corruption charges for all sorts of money laundering
2014: Goes to jail.

Illinois has no term limits.

[Maxwell]

Oh well, then he doesn't run because, even though he isn't term-limited, Obama is still a home town star, and Blago was really really unpopular. Blago is a nutter though, so he decides to give Durbin the old heave ho.

and oh, wow, I got that completely derp. Ignore my earlier comment.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't see McCain winning in 2008. I think it is more likely that Hillary beats him and is the nominee. Come 2010, the Tea Party rears its head, and he either runs for Governor or declines to seek reelection (though if he did, I'd give him the upper hand, although Kirk could beat him) before running again in 2016.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Kirk beating Obama in 2010 ? Hell No.

No way would Obama get tossed out, he'd still win reelection though with 57% against Kirk, who'd get 40%.

 

[IceSpear]

Kirk wouldn't even run if Obama were running for re-election.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kirk wouldn't even run if Obama were running for re-election.

The Tea Party wave would go after Obama in retaliation for 2008. Whether Kirk wins or not is up in the air, but don't assume Obama would win a 65% landslide either. Kirk was bouyed by the whole Blago scandal and the Burris appointment.

[IceSpear]

Kirk wouldn't even run if Obama were running for re-election.

The Tea Party wave would go after Obama in retaliation for 2008. Whether Kirk wins or not is up in the air, but don't assume Obama would win a 65% landslide either. Kirk was bouyed by the whole Blago scandal and the Burris appointment.

He wouldn't win in a "65% landslide", but he'd win fairly comfortably, probably by double digits. Kirk only beat the corrupt horrible candidate Alexi Giannoulias by 1.5%, there's no way he would've beaten Obama, who was always beloved in Illinois (if anything, Obama becoming president hurt him more in Illinois than anywhere else). But that's moot anyway since Kirk would not have run.