Can Hillary Clinton win Indiana's 11 electoral votes?

[RTX]

She has about as much a chance of winning Indiana as a Republican does winning Michigan at this point

[IceSpear]

Not in 2016, but definitely in a 2020 re-election run it's doable.

Oh, you mean the 2020 reelection campaign where the economy crashes and Bill Haslam is swept into office with the largest mandate received by either party since 1988?

Were you posting this just to show the absurdity of predicting an election 6 years in advance, or do you actually think this will happen?

[IceSpear]

She has about as much a chance of winning Indiana as a Republican does winning Michigan at this point

The difference is that a Democrat has won Indiana in the last 26 years. Not so for Republicans and Michigan.

[Mister Mets]

She has about as much a chance of winning Indiana as a Republican does winning Michigan at this point

I think Republicans have a better chance of getting Michigan.

There's more historical precedent for a party that's been out of power to win big than there is for a party that has kept the White House for two terms to gain states in the third election.

[Ebowed]

Extremely unlikely but not impossible.  In a Clinton vs. [insert washed up establishment pretend-tea-party candidate name here] race I'd expect the Republican to win by 8-12 points.

People (especially Democrats) forget how reviled Clinton is amongst the conservative base.  Get ready for two more years of Blah blah blah benghazi whitewater monica.

[IceSpear]

Extremely unlikely but not impossible.  In a Clinton vs. [insert washed up establishment pretend-tea-party candidate name here] race I'd expect the Republican to win by 8-12 points.

People (especially Democrats) forget how reviled Clinton is amongst the conservative base.  Get ready for two more years of Blah blah blah benghazi whitewater monica.

The conservative base hates all Democrats. Remember back when Obama was a "post partisan uniter"? It didn't take long for them to hate him even worse than they do the Clintons.

[SWE]

Not in 2016, but definitely in a 2020 re-election run it's doable.

Considering how historically the party in power does increasingly worse the longer it stays in power, she's probably even less likely to win Indiana in 2020 than in 2016

[pbrower2a]

Democrats have won Indiana for the President in four elections of the last century -- 1932 (abject failure of the preceding Administration), 1936 (the 48-state win of FDR), 1964 (LBJ winning everything outside the South except for the home state of Barry Goldwater), and 2008 (much like 1932). It was surprisingly close in 1948 -- probably because Truman's whistlestop campaign tour went through Indiana, and Dewey was a thoroughly-awful campaigner.

A Democrat can lose Indiana by about 11% and still win; Indiana is that R. . But not by much more. Gore lost Indiana by about 15%... a swing of 4% of the vote in Indiana would likely show up in a 4% swing in the vote in Ohio, which would have put Gore over. (Gore would have probably won New Hampshire and Missouri as well, and nobody would have been questioning any ballots in Florida).

Kerry lost Indiana by 20% and about 7% nationwide. Indiana was about 13% more Republican in 2004 than the US as a whole  that year. Give Kerry so much as a 3% shift in the vote nationwide -- and he wins 37 more electoral votes (NM, IA, OH, and NV) and wins by about as much a margin in the Electoral College as he lost in reality.

Indiana does swing, but rarely enough to go D.  Bill Clinton lost the state by 6% in 1992 and 1996, but he also won every state bordering Indiana -- twice.   

[Mr. Illini]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

[JRP1994]

Democrats have won Indiana for the President in four elections of the last century -- 1932 (abject failure of the preceding Administration), 1936 (the 48-state win of FDR), 1964 (LBJ winning everything outside the South except for the home state of Barry Goldwater), and 2008 (much like 1932). It was surprisingly close in 1948 -- probably because Truman's whistlestop campaign tour went through Indiana, and Dewey was a thoroughly-awful campaigner.

A Democrat can lose Indiana by about 11% and still win; Indiana is that R. . But not by much more. Gore lost Indiana by about 15%... a swing of 4% of the vote in Indiana would likely show up in a 4% swing in the vote in Ohio, which would have put Gore over. (Gore would have probably won New Hampshire and Missouri as well, and nobody would have been questioning any ballots in Florida).

Kerry lost Indiana by 20% and about 7% nationwide. Indiana was about 13% more Republican in 2004 than the US as a whole  that year. Give Kerry so much as a 3% shift in the vote nationwide -- and he wins 37 more electoral votes (NM, IA, OH, and NV) and wins by about as much a margin in the Electoral College as he lost in reality.

Indiana does swing, but rarely enough to go D.  Bill Clinton lost the state by 6% in 1992 and 1996, but he also won every state bordering Indiana -- twice.   

Uhm. Kerry lost by about 2.5%, not 7%...

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats have won Indiana for the President in four elections of the last century -- 1932 (abject failure of the preceding Administration), 1936 (the 48-state win of FDR), 1964 (LBJ winning everything outside the South except for the home state of Barry Goldwater), and 2008 (much like 1932). It was surprisingly close in 1948 -- probably because Truman's whistlestop campaign tour went through Indiana, and Dewey was a thoroughly-awful campaigner.

A Democrat can lose Indiana by about 11% and still win; Indiana is that R. . But not by much more. Gore lost Indiana by about 15%... a swing of 4% of the vote in Indiana would likely show up in a 4% swing in the vote in Ohio, which would have put Gore over. (Gore would have probably won New Hampshire and Missouri as well, and nobody would have been questioning any ballots in Florida).

Kerry lost Indiana by 20% and about 7% nationwide. Indiana was about 13% more Republican in 2004 than the US as a whole  that year. Give Kerry so much as a 3% shift in the vote nationwide -- and he wins 37 more electoral votes (NM, IA, OH, and NV) and wins by about as much a margin in the Electoral College as he lost in reality.

Indiana does swing, but rarely enough to go D.  Bill Clinton lost the state by 6% in 1992 and 1996, but he also won every state bordering Indiana -- twice.   

Uhm. Kerry lost by about 2.5%, not 7%...

You are right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She can clinch the election without OH with VA 13 EV 270-268+IA+NH+NM by picking Mark Warner as running mate or win with Hickenlooper 272-266 with CO, NV, and NH. She doesn't need IN, NC, or AZ.

[IceSpear]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

So was Richard Mourdock.

[pbrower2a]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

So was Richard Mourdock.

Right. Dick Lugar typically won by landslides by picking off huge numbers of Democratic votes.  Mourdock lost those votes -- and a bunch of Independent and even a few Republican votes.

Never, never, never trivialize rape.

[Mr. Illini]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

Indiana is Republican, but not THAT Republican. You need more than the base to win.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

NC, AZ, MO fall first. It's unlikely that she will, but if the GOP nominates Cruz...

Cruz is loved amongst GOP folks in Indiana.

Indiana is Republican, but not THAT Republican. You need more than the base to win.

It's more Republican than you think. In indiana many Democrats could be Republicans in other states quite easily.

[Indy Texas]

She could always threaten the state's 11 electors with Vince Foster style retribution if they don't cast "faithless" votes for her over the Republican who the majority of their state's voters supported.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IN was the ultimate fluke from 2008...

[Del Tachi]

Not in 2016, but definitely in a 2020 re-election run it's doable.

Oh, you mean the 2020 reelection campaign where the economy crashes and Bill Haslam is swept into office with the largest mandate received by either party since 1988?

Were you posting this just to show the absurdity of predicting an election 6 years in advance, or do you actually think this will happen?

The former. 

[pbrower2a]

Indiana in 2008:

1. Catastrophically incompetent Republican incumbent. In that, the political reality in Indiana resembled 1932.

2. Triple-whammy of high energy costs for most of the year, a credit crunch, and an economic meltdown that hurt the RV industry.

3. Usually the Democratic nominee  sees Indiana not worth the effort to campaign in and writes it off early. Obama didn't. The Obama campaign, operating from Chicago, had much opportunity to campaign in Indiana and used it. The Republicans assumed Indiana a given in 2008 until too late.

4. Indiana media are either centralized in Indianapolis if they aren't on or near the state line. Areas near the Illinois state line knew Barack Obama very well.  For most of the 2008 season, Michigan was assumed to be a swing state; to reach parts of Michigan the Obama campaign had to advertise in the South Bend market.   To reach parts of Ohio, understood to be a swing state all of 2008, the Obama campaign had to advertise in Fort Wayne. As Michigan became a sure thing, the Obama campaign was able to pull advertising expenditures from markets entirely within Michigan and flood the Indianapolis area. The Obama campaign was still buying ads in South Bend -- but by September those were intended for Indiana voters. 

5. The last Democratic nominee to spend significant time in Indiana during a campaign in an election assumed to be close was Harry Truman -- and Indiana was close that year to a Truman victory.

6. Republicans did not react fast enough to pull Indiana away, by which time they had far too many other problems. 

[DS0816]

Re: Can Hillary Clinton win Indiana's 11 electoral votes?

The answer is the same as with Missouri.

The two states' margins, from 2008 and 2012, were closely connected they look like a one/two punch. (This is mentioned even with John McCain's narrow Republican hold of Missouri and Barack Obama's narrow Democratic pickup of Indiana in Election 2008.)