PPP (D) for MoveOn.org (D): Dems lead in FL, PA, GA, KS, ME

[Tender Branson]

PA: 56-34 Dem. candidate/Corbett

http://de.scribd.com/doc/216793804/Pennsylvania-Medicaid-Polling-Results

ME: 44-37-14 Michaud/LePage/Cutler

http://de.scribd.com/doc/216793783/Maine-Medicaid-Polling-Results

KS: 45-41 Davis/Brownback

http://de.scribd.com/doc/216793665/Kansas-Medicaid-Polling-Results

GA: 43-42 Carter/Deal

http://de.scribd.com/doc/216793581/Georgia-Medicaid-Polling-Results

FL: 49-42 Crist/Scott

http://de.scribd.com/doc/216793495/Florida-Medicaid-Polling-Results

[windjammer]

Hmmmm, I don't trust PPP when they are hired by MoveOn.org/Better georgia etc

[Maxwell]

I feel like it's Christmas when PPP or any other legitimate polling agency pulls out some new numbers.

All these numbers seem a bit Dem leaning, but nevertheless make sense in the contexts of these races.

[Lief 🗽]

Dominating.

[DrScholl]

Unskewed, Republicans lead by double digits. PPP fakes polls results for Democrats, remember?

[Tender Branson]

Dominating.

Not really: There's a chance these PPP polls (who are done for a left-wing outfit) are off by about 3-5 points in favour of the Dems.

See Jolly vs. Sink.

[Lief 🗽]

Dominating.

Not really: There's a chance these PPP polls (who are done for a left-wing outfit) are off by about 3-5 points in favour of the Dems.

See Jolly vs. Sink.

Polling a state is a lot easier than polling a congressional district special election though.

[IceSpear]

All of these seem to be consistently 2-4 points more Democratic friendly than the current consensus, but still good news for Dems.

Also, lol Corbett.

[Niemeyerite]

Dominating.

Not really: There's a chance these PPP polls (who are done for a left-wing outfit) are off by about 3-5 points in favour of the Dems.

See Jolly vs. Sink.

I don't believe that. FL-13 was a low-turnout race and it's always difficult to poll a district.

But if you were right, we'd have:

PA: 53-37 Dem. candidate/Corbett

ME: 41-38-16 Michaud/LePage/Cutler

KS: 42-44 Davis/Brownback

GA: 40-45 Carter/Deal

FL: 46-45 Crist/Scott

And that's giving the GOP the 3 points I take from the democrats. And, IMHO, they're still very good numbers for the Democratic Party.

[CatoMinor]

Dominating.

When the Dems are struggling to keep their leads against Governor Scott, "Dominating" is not the word I would use.

[pbrower2a]

Brownback and Deal are very unpopular.  We may be seeing the consequences of low approval ratings. It is possible to have a low approval rating as an incumbent and still win... but it is about a 50% chance of winning for someone with an approval rating of 44%.

So how can Democrats exploit weaknesses of right-wing incumbent Republicans in R-friendly states? Bread-and-butter issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brownback and Deal are very unpopular.  We may be seeing the consequences of low approval ratings. It is possible to have a low approval rating as an incumbent and still win... but it is about a 50% chance of winning for someone with an approval rating of 44%.

So how can Democrats exploit weaknesses of right-wing incumbent Republicans in R-friendly states? Bread-and-butter issues.

We can exploit Walker's weakness as well in a Democratic friendly state concerning corruption.

[pbrower2a]

Brownback and Deal are very unpopular.  We may be seeing the consequences of low approval ratings. It is possible to have a low approval rating as an incumbent and still win... but it is about a 50% chance of winning for someone with an approval rating of 44%.

So how can Democrats exploit weaknesses of right-wing incumbent Republicans in R-friendly states? Bread-and-butter issues.

We can exploit Walker's weakness as well in a Democratic friendly state concerning corruption.

I agree on that. Also Corbett in Pennsylvania for corruption, LePage in Maine for being out of touch with reality, and Snyder in Michigan for betraying workers to out-of-state interests (states clearly D), and Scott for cronyism (Florida is about 50-50 D/R).

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Brownback and Deal are very unpopular.  We may be seeing the consequences of low approval ratings. It is possible to have a low approval rating as an incumbent and still win... but it is about a 50% chance of winning for someone with an approval rating of 44%.

So how can Democrats exploit weaknesses of right-wing incumbent Republicans in R-friendly states? Bread-and-butter issues.

We can exploit Walker's weakness as well in a Democratic friendly state concerning corruption.

Hahahah....no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassmussen has it tied. I was simply stating that we are more likely to win Wisc than GA or KS. But Synder, Scott, LePage and Corbett are most likely to lose. Not Deal or Brownback.

[Smash255]

Dominating.

Not really: There's a chance these PPP polls (who are done for a left-wing outfit) are off by about 3-5 points in favour of the Dems.

See Jolly vs. Sink.

Considering it is a poll for Moveon rather than just something they are doing themselves I could buy the argument of questionign it, however being off in a Special Election Congresional race (which is notriously very difficult to poll) is not a reason to question it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Brownback and Deal are very unpopular.  We may be seeing the consequences of low approval ratings. It is possible to have a low approval rating as an incumbent and still win... but it is about a 50% chance of winning for someone with an approval rating of 44%.

So how can Democrats exploit weaknesses of right-wing incumbent Republicans in R-friendly states? Bread-and-butter issues.

We can exploit Walker's weakness as well in a Democratic friendly state concerning corruption.

Hahahah....no.

If they hope to do that, they're going to have to dig up something worse than offensive emails staffers sent to each other 5 years ago and a Milwaukee County employee campaigning on the clock.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker's weakness, just like Rauner, Kasich, and Synder lies with Labor Unions. He tried to take their collective bargaining away. Rauner wants no increase in minimum wage. The recall he survived, isn't the same as an election. However, the weakest link lies with Synder and Corbett and LePage. We might get lucky in FL and ARK. But those are the three targets of the DGA.

[SWE]

Hmmmm, I don't trust PPP when they are hired by MoveOn.org/Better georgia etc

lol

[Badger]

Other than KS, and maybe Corbett doing even worse than expected, this is about as expected. Even if correct, it'll still be quite hard for Davis or Carter to carry enough undecideds to actually win, though.

In ME, unlike last time where Cutler was the bona fide alternative to LePage rather than the Democratic candidate, unless he reverses his poor third place showing soon (not sure how), his support will wilt near the end like a typical "unelectable" 3rd party candidate, and his defectors should go overwhelmingly towards Michaud.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When you have Dems lead in numerous states, despite the PVI, on prez races, I will take KS and Ga. This is a midterm, the GOP may have the edge in House, until 2016, but like prez races, statewide races favor Dems.