MI-PPP: Hilldog basically ahead by double digits
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:01:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MI-PPP: Hilldog basically ahead by double digits
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MI-PPP: Hilldog basically ahead by double digits  (Read 989 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 09, 2014, 01:38:16 PM »

Later more ...
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2014, 02:03:41 PM »

When is later?
Logged
senyor_brownbear
Rookie
**
Posts: 91


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2014, 02:07:28 PM »

46/37 Chris Christie
48/39 Rand Paul
49/38 Jeb Bush
50/38 Mike Huckabee
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2014, 02:16:41 PM »

Not too awful actually for Bush this one. I guess he's slowly starting to improve on his standing. I'm highly curious to see how he'll poll next time against Hillary in Texas. Hopefully PPP will include 2016 match-ups in their Texas poll this weekend.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2014, 08:23:03 PM »

Here's the link, ftr: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/michigan-miscellany.html#more
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2014, 09:56:48 PM »

Not too awful actually for Bush this one. I guess he's slowly starting to improve on his standing. I'm highly curious to see how he'll poll next time against Hillary in Texas. Hopefully PPP will include 2016 match-ups in their Texas poll this weekend.

Paul does better. Those are terrible numbers for Bush. If you can't be more competitive than the "insane libertarian" than you are worthless.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2014, 11:17:19 PM »

Margins for Michigan since 1992 (all D):

2012   9
2008  16
2004   3
2000   5
1996  13
1992   7

 
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2014, 12:22:56 AM »

First rule of elections is that the undecideds break 100% for the Republican Party, so Clinton is actually trailing everyone except Huckabee.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2014, 04:58:25 AM »

Lol, 100% actually. Tongue
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2014, 09:12:59 AM »

First rule of elections is that the undecideds break 100% for the Republican Party, so Clinton is actually trailing everyone except Huckabee.

It depends upon the state. In general, I have largely seen that the undecided break ineffectively toward the loser. If the split is 64-20, even a 100% break among the undecided toward the eventual loser still indicates a landslide. Also, if a nominee has a ceiling  far short of 50%, then a 42-41 lead can become a 56-44 loss (look at Obama in the Dakotas in 2008). 

Michigan is the sort of state in which the Republican nominee often has a ceiling around 45%.

So normally I expect 10%+ leads to shrink.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2014, 02:46:44 PM »

First rule of elections is that the undecideds break 100% for the Republican Party, so Clinton is actually trailing everyone except Huckabee.

It depends upon the state. In general, I have largely seen that the undecided break ineffectively toward the loser. If the split is 64-20, even a 100% break among the undecided toward the eventual loser still indicates a landslide. Also, if a nominee has a ceiling  far short of 50%, then a 42-41 lead can become a 56-44 loss (look at Obama in the Dakotas in 2008). 

Michigan is the sort of state in which the Republican nominee often has a ceiling around 45%.

So normally I expect 10%+ leads to shrink.


he's joking
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,293
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2014, 04:19:57 AM »

If Christie, at THIS time, is still doing decently in match-ups with Hillary (compared to other republicans), I think there's a good chance that he'll shake this scandal and end up running afterall.
Logged
badgate
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2014, 07:13:01 PM »

Not too awful actually for Bush this one. I guess he's slowly starting to improve on his standing. I'm highly curious to see how he'll poll next time against Hillary in Texas. Hopefully PPP will include 2016 match-ups in their Texas poll this weekend.

PPP is releasing the full poll tomorrow fyi
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 14 queries.