Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Horwath has decided to pull the trigger. Woot.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is denying it.

[RogueBeaver]

Hence "looks like." They also said they stand by the story. Have you heard about those insurance e-mails?

[RogueBeaver]

OWN still standing by their multiple-sourced story. NDP didn't deny any specifics either.

[Zanas]

With what happened across Canada in the last years, except maybe Quebec just recently which was not so poorly polled (albeit underpolling CAQ a bit), we can expect the result in this to be diametrally opposed to polling...

[DL]

With what happened across Canada in the last years, except maybe Quebec just recently which was not so poorly polled (albeit underpolling CAQ a bit), we can expect the result in this to be diametrally opposed to polling...

You are confusing the accuracy of final polls with whether support for parties will change dramatically during a month long campaign....in Quebec the final polls were quite accurate but the final results and polls were also dramatically different from what we saw when the election was called when the PQ was leading.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak hopes to be the beneficiary of a similar shift.

[RogueBeaver]

Regg-Cohn on the phony war. Horwath will not meet with Wynne on the budget.

[RogueBeaver]

Nanos is out: 36/36/22. He also says there's some NDP/OLP tactical voting going on.

[DL]

Nanos is out: 36/36/22. He also says there's some NDP/OLP tactical voting going on.

Let me get this straight - two straight polls have shown no change whatsoever in OLP support but PC support has gone up and NDP support has gone down - and Nanos thinks there is NDP/OLP "tactical voting" going on??? is the guys nuts? First of all "tactical voting" (ie: where you vote for the party you hate to stop the party you despise) doesn't happen before and election is even called - it happens in the final two or three days of a campaign. Secondly, given the pattern - its seems far more plausible that some NDP voters who really really hate the Liberals over the gas plants have shifted to the PCs recently because maybe they see the NDP as being "accomplices" to Wynne (how else do you explain NDP down and PCs up??). Of course the moment Horwath actually does pull the plug - she will ipso facto no longer be a "Wynne-enabler" and those votes could swing right back...Of course that requires nanos to do something that pundits never seem to be able to get their heads around - namely to acknowledge the existence of people who swing from NDP to PC and back by-passing the Liberals entirely - there are wayyyy more of those people than is commonly believed.

[MaxQue]

Or simply than in every election, Nanos has an anti-NDP lean until a few days before the election.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has a different story: 37/32/27. Among LV: 42/27/27. Liberals lead with 40% in GTA. Tories w/47% in 905, 37% in SW and 39% in E. NDP leads in N w/43%. PPM is 32 Hudak, 31 Horwath, 28 Wynne.

[Hatman 🍁]

So depending on the pollster, it's either a 3-way race or the NDP is in a distant third. OK.

[RogueBeaver]

5 points or a tie for 2nd is distant?

[Krago]

PPM is 32 Hudak, 31 Horwath, 28 Wynne.

It's actually 32 Hudak, 31 Wynne, 28 Horwath.

[RogueBeaver]

Paikin on Horwath's call.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne refuses to rule out preemptive dissolution. Gee, didn't we just see that movie?

[RogueBeaver]

Will a tax hike on 150k+ be enough for Horwath?

[RogueBeaver]

Grits are divided on preemptive dissolution, but even doves don't seem to expect waiting till month's end for a decision.

[lilTommy]

Will a tax hike on 150k+ be enough for Horwath?

The other things mentioned are increasing taxes on tobacco and aviation fuel and an increase for public support workers... If that's all that's in the budget, the NDP won't vote against it, I would hope not.
Horwath wants to see the "fiscal blueprint"? not sure if that means the full budget and all the details; but at worst I could see the NDP abstain as they have previously allowing it to pass.

[RogueBeaver]

From the Ford crack tapes: he won't vote for Hudak because he's too LGBT-friendly,

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne tries to reassure her caucus that she won't preempt. But privately, Grits believe Horwath has decided to pull the trigger.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne is giving Horwath a hard deadline on her decision, probably a week. If she doesn't respond then Wynne might dissolve the Leg herself. Horwath isn't at the budget speech but will reply tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP abstained on first reading.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne sent Horwath that letter.