Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[RogueBeaver]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

Ipsos is out tonight, curious to see if their trend is continuing.

[Citizen Hats]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

Lorne Bozinoff, as he is fond of repeating, does in fact have a PhD

[RogueBeaver]

NDP platform out.

[Hatman 🍁]

I read the new Forum poll in today's Toronto Star.  It shows the Liberal lead over the PCs widening from three points (38%-35%) to seven (41%-34%), yet somehow, the projected lead in seats has shrunk from 42 (68-26) to 32 (63-31).  These guys must have PhDs because I can't figure it out!

Ipsos is out tonight, curious to see if their trend is continuing.

Ipsos will likely show the Tories with a small lead, or maybe a tie.

[RogueBeaver]

Some tidbits from Bricker's Twitter feed: most motivated, likeliest, interested voters are Tory. Leadership still has Wynne as popular as OLP, Hudak trails his party, Horwath way ahead of hers. Tory second choice is NDP, not OLP - first time he's seen that. Tories tied with Grits among immigrants: Tories have older, Grits younger. Tories have big lead w/homeowners.

[RogueBeaver]

Grit platform will be released Sunday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

[toaster]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

Good news for Granville Anderson and the Liberals in Durham.  It will be interesting to see if they can pull out a win here without an NDP candidate. 

[DL]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

The NDP is running Derek Spence in Durham

[DL]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

[Zanas]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

Game changer ? Outlier ?

[RogueBeaver]

LV is 41/30/26 PC. Hudak should shift some fire NDP's way like Harper did 3 years ago.

[DC Al Fine]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

Game changer ? Outlier ?

The might be on to something. Abacus had the NDP @ 26% earlier this week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations are closed; Tories and Liberals are running a full slate. NDP doesn't have a candidate in Durham (a riding they won in 1990!) I suppose Larry O'Connor wasn't available?

Greens have missed quite a few as well, they're only running 85. And the Libertarians who said they were going to run a full slate may be running only around half.

The NDP is running Derek Spence in Durham

Nope: http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/en/electoral-districts/019-durham.aspx

Unless Elections Ontario hasn't updated their listing? Today was the deadline.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yet another poll "shocker" in Ontario - this time from Ipsos - they have the PCs losing ground to the NDP - I guess the NDP "wrap around the Toronto Sun" worked like a charm

PC - 35% (-4)
OLP - 31% (+1)
NDP - 28% (+4)

They also now have Andrea Horwath in first place as best premier!

Game changer ? Outlier ?

The might be on to something. Abacus had the NDP @ 26% earlier this week.

Both Ipsos and Abacus are using opt-in online panels, which I think skew anti-incumbent. Anyways, I called it:

Ipsos will likely show the Tories with a small lead, or maybe a tie.

[RogueBeaver]

LV worked just fine here in QC last month for both Ipsos and Angus-Reid. As Bricker said, GOTV/motivation game.

[Hatman 🍁]

LV worked just fine here in QC last month for both Ipsos and Angus-Reid. As Bricker said, GOTV/motivation game.

I'm seeing a huge discrepancy by the pollsters, and the difference between the two sides is methodology.  Personally, my gut feeling is that the Liberals are ahead right now. 

[Linus Van Pelt]

How do they get people for these online panels?

[RogueBeaver]

LVP: Methodology's in the writeup, more details if you poke around the Ipsos website.

[Hatman 🍁]

How do they get people for these online panels?

They're opt in, you just sign up. I was a member of Ipsos' panel, but they stopped sending me surveys for some reason.

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, after a bit of reading the fine print on the web sites of Ipsos and Abacus, I think I understand the answer: they are online panels of people who sign up to fill out surveys, mostly having to do with product testing for the purpose of corporate marketing research, in exchange for a sort of rewards/points program. Abacus uses a panel from a company called Research Now that you cannot voluntarily sign up for; they have to invite you, presumably having obtained your e-mail from online retailers. Ipsos, as you say Earl, can be voluntarily joined. But the advertising to join the panel suggests that they expect most people to be in it mainly for the rewards program. It's not just a bunch of political nerds who want to fill out polls for fun.

Now, this might be an explanation for what's going on, if, even after all the other demographic re-weighting, people who join these rewards programs are more amenable than the general population to a sort of household-budget-oriented retail style of politics. Or, as Sam Spade would say, it might not. We'll see.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS uses as a panel as well, but you can't voluntarily join up, you have to be asked to join. However, we don't use it for provincial polls.

[Linus Van Pelt]

When you were on the Ipsos panel, were a lot of the surveys non-political stuff about which kind of knickknacks you prefer? And did you get some kind of points?

[Hatman 🍁]

When you were on the Ipsos panel, were a lot of the surveys non-political stuff about which kind of knickknacks you prefer? And did you get some kind of points?

I think so- it's been about 3 years or so, so I can't recall. There was a reward system though, and a fun game at the end where you had to guess how many Canadians agreed with a certain statement.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Am I seeing correctly that Mississauga South doesn't even have an NDP candidate?