Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto Centre includes Rosedale, which is insanely wealthy, where the NDP vote is always in the single digits. While Rosedale makes up only a small portion of the riding, it is enough to ensure the NDP can never win the seat. South of Bloor, the riding is much poorer, but the seat's Liberal (and Red Tory) history has meant the Liberals are strong there as well.

In the federal election, we saw the Liberals finish 2nd in many polls across the riding (to the Tories in the north and the NDP in the south), which was enough for them to win.

[King of Kensington]

Rosedale (and north-of-Bloor in general) skews the picture; it also has a way of dragging the rest of the seat into the Liberal fold, even in places where it's not altogether "NDP-incompatible".  (St. Paul's has the same effect on west-of-Bathurst, as does Vancouver-Quadra on whatever Kitsilano-ish zones.)

Yes.  Sometimes you can really see the impact of that.  For instance, there are bits on the western and southern edges of St. Paul's that are very demographically similar to what it borders in Trinity-Spadina or Davenport that nonetheless have a much lower NDP vote, i.e. Tarragon Village, Hillcrest.

Speaking of Van Quadra, how would TC and St. Paul's vote under a B.C. party scenario?  My guess is TC would be NDP while St. Paul's would be like Point Grey - usually Liberal but with enough of what we can perhaps call "David Eby New Democrats" to go under NDP under the right scenario.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the vote compass is to be believed, St. Paul's is a very left wing riding.

[Citizen Hats]

Vancouver Quadra, somewhat my home turf, is a bit of a different creature.  Kits has always been a Liberal area, with pockets of NDP potential, while the southern part of the riding is more of a Martinite-Conservative region.  That the NDP won Vancouver Point Grey in 2013 is a strange and new phenomenon, considering that the neighborhood as always been split, with the whole riding going to Gordon Campbell for many years

[King of Kensington]

Certainly municipally St. Paul's votes left of center.  David Miller beat John Tory there in 2003 (2010 isn't a good basis of comparison because it included an anti-urban right-wing populist, a center-right Liberal who took most of the progressive vote and a very weak candidate of the left).

Vision Vancouver is also strong in what constitutes Point Grey and Fairview ridings.

[King of Kensington]

Ontario politics with B.C. parties and B.C. politics with Ontario parties:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194371.0

[King of Kensington]

Here's Davenport using the city's demographic neighborhoods:

Pellam Park (aka Carleton Village):  Liberals 44.8%, NDP 40.5%, PCs 8.2%, Greens 4.1%
Caledonia-Fairbank:  Liberals 51.1%, NDP 33.1%, PCs 11.7%, Greens 2.4%
Oakwood: Liberals 46%, NDP 38.8%, PCs 8.5%, Greens 4.4%
Corso Italia: Liberals 52%, NDP 35%, PCs 8.1%, Greens 4%
Dovercourt-Wallace Emerson-Junction:  Liberals 43.9%, NDP 42.2%, PCs 6.8%, Greens 5.3%
Dufferin Grove:  NDP 43.5%, Liberals 43.3%, PCs 6%, Greens 5.9%
Little Portugal:  Liberals 47.7%, NDP 37.9%, PCs 6.6%, Greens 6.6%

Also running into Davenport:

Wychwood (pt.): NDP 41.8%, Liberals 40.9%, PCs 9.2%, Greens 6.3%
Palmerston (pt.):  NDP 47.3%, Liberals 38.4%, Greens 6.7%, PCs 6.2%

By municipal ward:

Ward 17:  Liberals 48.1%, NDP 37.2%, PCs 8.8%, Greens 4.1%
Ward 18:  Liberals 44.3%, NDP 41.9%, PCs 6.4%, Greens 5.8%

[canadian1]

Toronto Centre includes Rosedale, which is insanely wealthy, where the NDP vote is always in the single digits. While Rosedale makes up only a small portion of the riding, it is enough to ensure the NDP can never win the seat. South of Bloor, the riding is much poorer, but the seat's Liberal (and Red Tory) history has meant the Liberals are strong there as well.

In the federal election, we saw the Liberals finish 2nd in many polls across the riding (to the Tories in the north and the NDP in the south), which was enough for them to win.

This explanation has never convinced me, because I don't know how Liberal/Tory popularity in Rosedale can somehow sway voters south of Bloor. If the NDP is genuinely appealing to voters in the south part of the riding, those voters would be going NDP in much larger numbers than they historically have. The party has not typically fielded good candidates, but they must claim the blame for that. You're right about the 2011 federal election, but on the new boundaries (which exclude Rosedale altogether) Rae would have won by 3%. And none of what you cite can account for the fact that the NDP's performance in the provincial election was so dramatically worse than it was in nearby ridings. The party won virtually no polls, and Krago's numbers show that boundary changes wouldn't have helped.

To me, this question is difficult to answer. Voters in Regent Park, for example, voted Liberal even in 2011. Surely the NDP thinks of those voters as its natural constituency, but it could say the same about Jane and Finch--another Grit stronghold, albeit a weakening one. Demographic analysis can only take you so far; at a certain point, a riding's political history starts to matter. This gets to your point that the Liberal institutional presence, buttressed by Rosedale, is an important contributory factor to NDP weakness in Centre. But it can't just be Rosedale that created that history.

[King of Kensington]

Parkdale-High Park:

Lambton-Baby Point: Liberals 40.2%, NDP 33.4%, PCs 20.6%, Greens 4.1%
Runnymede-Bloor West Village:  Liberals 42.8%, NDP 36.2%, PCs 14.4%, Greens 5.5%
Junction: NDP 47.8%, Liberals 34.6%, PCs 9%, Greens 5.5%
High Park North: Liberals 41.6%, NDP 37.9%, PCs 13.5%, Greens 5.5%
High Park-Swansea: Liberals 41.1%, NDP 34.8%, PCs 17.2%, Greens 5.8%
Roncesvalles: NDP 46.2%, Liberals 36.6%, PCs 8.1%, Greens 6.9%
South Parkdale: NDP 52.3%, Liberals 32.3%, PCs 8.3%, Greens 5.3%

As expected, a pretty strong east-west split:

Ward 13:  Liberals 41.3%, NDP 36.3%, PCs 15.7%, Greens 5.2%
Ward 14:  NDP 46.5%, Liberals 33.9%, PCs 9.4%, Greens 6.1%

[King of Kensington]

Toronto Centre includes Rosedale, which is insanely wealthy, where the NDP vote is always in the single digits. While Rosedale makes up only a small portion of the riding, it is enough to ensure the NDP can never win the seat. South of Bloor, the riding is much poorer, but the seat's Liberal (and Red Tory) history has meant the Liberals are strong there as well.

In the federal election, we saw the Liberals finish 2nd in many polls across the riding (to the Tories in the north and the NDP in the south), which was enough for them to win.

This explanation has never convinced me, because I don't know how Liberal/Tory popularity in Rosedale can somehow sway voters south of Bloor. If the NDP is genuinely appealing to voters in the south part of the riding, those voters would be going NDP in much larger numbers than they historically have. The party has not typically fielded good candidates, but they must claim the blame for that. You're right about the 2011 federal election, but on the new boundaries (which exclude Rosedale altogether) Rae would have won by 3%. And none of what you cite can account for the fact that the NDP's performance in the provincial election was so dramatically worse than it was in nearby ridings. The party won virtually no polls, and Krago's numbers show that boundary changes wouldn't have helped.

To me, this question is difficult to answer. Voters in Regent Park, for example, voted Liberal even in 2011. Surely the NDP thinks of those voters as its natural constituency, but it could say the same about Jane and Finch--another Grit stronghold, albeit a weakening one. Demographic analysis can only take you so far; at a certain point, a riding's political history starts to matter. This gets to your point that the Liberal institutional presence, buttressed by Rosedale, is an important contributory factor to NDP weakness in Centre. But it can't just be Rosedale that created that history.

Yeah it isn't just Rosedale or north of Bloor, but the Bay Street Corridor and a lot of condos as well that set a more Liberal tone.  You're also right about Regent Park and St. Jamestown which have traditionally vote Liberal, though I think they went NDP in the 2011 federal orange wave.  I think the weak NDP history in the riding also has an impact.

Another thing to point out that I think really depressed the NDP vote this time, in addition to the NDP just not resonating in Toronto, was the impact of Kathleen Wynne being the first openly gay premier.  TC has perhaps the largest LGBT population of any Canadian riding, though I don't know what their percentage of the population is.  And for some reason, the Liberals seem a lot more inclined to run gay candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's possible that Gays are attracted to the Liberals more than the NDP in general. Most tend to be wealthier than straights (no children, meaning more disposable income). Wealth+social liberalism = Liberal Party supporters.

As for why Toronto Centre is Liberal, history plays a big part for sure. It's true there are a lot of untapped demographic constituencies the NDP should be trying to win (I believe Jane & Finch was mentioned). That is key for the NDP to reach out to working class neighbourhoods like that one. (The NDP did very well in York West in the election, so maybe their outreach is working to a degree). One issue is that minorities often vote Liberal, even if they are very poor. Often the federal Liberals were the governing party when they immigrated, which has fostered an allegiance to the party that translates provincially as well. This is why many of the poorer areas in Toronto Centre vote Liberal, like St. Jamestown.

[DL]

Its a complex situation in a riding like Toronto Centre. You have to keep in mind that as a result of Rosedale being part of the riding - its not a seat that the NDP usually views as winnable and as a result the NDP tends not to put much effort there or spend much money. Last year when the federal byelection was held in Toronto Centre, the NDP ran Linda McQuaig who was a star candidate and the party poured in resources and she did very well getting 37% of the vote and essentially tying the Liberal south of Bloor while being crushed in Rosedale. After redistribution when Rosedale is lopped off - it will be a whole new ball game.

The NDP has had its ups and downs in that riding and its various antecedent ridings. Provincially it was the ridings of St. George and St. David which later were merged into "St. George-St. David". Interestingly the ONDP has a history of being surprisingly weak in those inner city ridings even in election where they did very well across Toronto. For example in the 1975 and 1977 Ontario elections the NDP won 14 out of 29 seats both times - but they did not win any of the three downtown ridings (St. George, St. David and St. Andrew-St. Patrick). That being said the NDP came very close to winning St. David in 1977 running Gordon Cressy - father or Joe Cressy the NDP candidate in next week's Trinity-Spadina byelection. The NDP also came close to winning St. George in 1985 and in the 1990 NDP landslide the NDP came within 79 votes of winning the new riding of St. George-St. David. In 1995 there was a big backlash against the Ontario Liberals in the gay community after the Liberals picked a total homophobe named Lyn McLeod as their leader and she boasted about having shot down the NDP's attempt to give same sex couples some rights - it ended up being a close three-way race there with the NDP running Rev. Brent Hawkes of the Metropolitan Community Church and it actually went Tory due to a perfect three-way vote split.

Its a bit simplistic to say that gays vote Liberal as opposed to NDP - it depends on the election, depends on the riding, depends on the local candidates and depends on whether we are talking about gay men or lesbians. Up until very recently the NDP was the one and only "gay-positive" party (see recent Liberal history of homophobia under Lyn McLeod etc...) and its only in the past decade that the Ontario Liberals in particular have fielded a series of gay candidates like George Smitherman and Glen Murray etc...that probably helps the Liberals win votes in the gay community in that riding - but you go over to Toronto-Danforth and the LGBT vote there tends to heavily support NDP people like Jack Layton in the past and now Craig Scott and Peter Tabuns and of course Olivia Chow herself always did very well among LGBT voters in her riding - especially against socially conservative Liberals like Tony Ianno.

In the Toronto Centre byelection it was observed anecdotally that lesbians tended to skew heavily NDP, gay men would be NDP if they were poor or people of colour or from the older generation of activists, but the young professional gay crowd tended to be Liberal. IMHO, a lot of it is about the "aspirational" nature of many elements of the gay (male) community. I know this will sound like stereotyping - but I will say it anyways, a lot of gay men aspire to be or like to think of themselves as "high class" people with nice clothes and nice furniture and who go on luxury cruises (I realize that this is not the reality for most people but I'm talking about the myths people like to believe about themselves)...for all the internalized homophobia there is in the gay world - there is also bit of "cultural narcissism" where some gay people think they represent the forces of good taste and enlightenment compared to all those hicks they grew up with in small town Ontario. What does all this have to do with voting patterns? I would suggest that the Liberal party appeals because it sees itself as the party of people who are too smart to vote Conservative and too rich to vote NDP. Its always been the party of careerist professionals and patricians of the so-called Laurentian Elite. The NDP on the other hand has more of downscale image as a party with links to unions and as a party that represents all those "icky" working class people. This was particularly true in this election where the NDP's whole strategy was very much focused on targeting lower income people in the rust-belt and in low income areas. Gay rights are no longer a "wedge issue" that separates the Liberals and NDP in Ontario  so it comes down to which party has the image or holds up the mirror to people and makes them like what they see.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you're dead on about the gay vote. But don't forget gays tend to be wealthier as well, and that affects their voting habits.

[DL]

I think you're dead on about the gay vote. But don't forget gays tend to be wealthier as well, and that affects their voting habits.

That is actually not true...while there is a stereotype about gay men with high disposable incomes etc... it is just that - a stereotype. In fact i have seen statistics that say that average incomes in the LGBT community are actually quite low...many people have crummy jobs in retail etc... There is a lot of poverty and social problems as well - many people are outcasts from their families or are refugees from places like Uganda etc... I think that for "PR purposes" the LGBT community has found it useful to promote the image of gays and lesbians as having lots of money etc... but the reality is very different. In fact i was just reading an article about how in the fight for equal marriage in the US, they went to great lengths to make sure that the couples  who were involved in the court case were "poster boys and girls" of respectability (ie: white, upper middle class, photogenic, church-going, no history of promiscuity or drug use etc...)

[Hatman 🍁]

Fair enough. I'm just basing it on personal observations. I guess I'm not familiar with the whole gay community at large. There's also a possibility that gays tend to be wealthier in Ottawa while not as much in Toronto.

[lilTommy]

I think you're dead on about the gay vote. But don't forget gays tend to be wealthier as well, and that affects their voting habits.

That is actually not true...while there is a stereotype about gay men with high disposable incomes etc... it is just that - a stereotype. In fact i have seen statistics that say that average incomes in the LGBT community are actually quite low...many people have crummy jobs in retail etc... There is a lot of poverty and social problems as well - many people are outcasts from their families or are refugees from places like Uganda etc... I think that for "PR purposes" the LGBT community has found it useful to promote the image of gays and lesbians as having lots of money etc... but the reality is very different. In fact i was just reading an article about how in the fight for equal marriage in the US, they went to great lengths to make sure that the couples  who were involved in the court case were "poster boys and girls" of respectability (ie: white, upper middle class, photogenic, church-going, no history of promiscuity or drug use etc...)

In Toronto Centre the gay population would be rather mixed based on income; the Village area around Church & Wellesley would be poorer for the reasons you mentioned, but if you head over to Cabbagetown it would be an older more wealthier population that reflect you previous comment about older white gays falling more often then not into that careerist Liberal perfect storm, with riding history and candidates sealing the deal.
Toronto-Danforth is much more working class in origin although the gay community would be very similar to that of Cabbagetown. From living in South Riverdale for half a dozen years, mature gay couples bought and in the area and in many cases helped gentrify the area into a more artizan, more queen west feel area. BUT the history of the NDP here as the progressive option of choice, advocate for social equality meant gays favoured the NDP.
The Gay community is not as uniform as some ethnic communities can be; LGBT favoured the NDP is Parkdale-High park and Toronto-Danforth while looks like they favoured the Liberals in Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina

[King of Kensington]

Are there any estimates for gay population by riding?

[King of Kensington]

Toronto-Danforth is much more working class in origin although the gay community would be very similar to that of Cabbagetown. From living in South Riverdale for half a dozen years, mature gay couples bought and in the area and in many cases helped gentrify the area into a more artizan, more queen west feel area. BUT the history of the NDP here as the progressive option of choice, advocate for social equality meant gays favoured the NDP.
The Gay community is not as uniform as some ethnic communities can be; LGBT favoured the NDP is Parkdale-High park and Toronto-Danforth while looks like they favoured the Liberals in Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina

In Danforth, in addition to the strong NDP history in the riding, the fact that the socially conservative Dennis Mills represented the riding from 1988 to 2004 likely played a role as well.

[lilTommy]

Toronto-Danforth is much more working class in origin although the gay community would be very similar to that of Cabbagetown. From living in South Riverdale for half a dozen years, mature gay couples bought and in the area and in many cases helped gentrify the area into a more artizan, more queen west feel area. BUT the history of the NDP here as the progressive option of choice, advocate for social equality meant gays favoured the NDP.
The Gay community is not as uniform as some ethnic communities can be; LGBT favoured the NDP is Parkdale-High park and Toronto-Danforth while looks like they favoured the Liberals in Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina

In Danforth, in addition to the strong NDP history in the riding, the fact that the socially conservative Dennis Mills represented the riding from 1988 to 2004 likely played a role as well.

I'm wondering if the "gay wave" so to speak came after/around 2000/2004? I moved into the area in 2003 and the area is almost unrecognizable in terms of what Queen East looks/feels like now then what it was then, much more working class, less "hip".   

[King of Kensington]

In South Riverdale that's probably true, but the gentrification of North Riverdale began earlier, perhaps as early as the late 1970s (offshoot of Cabbagetown).  I'm pretty sure there's a significant gay population there too.

[adma]

Parkdale-High Park:

Lambton-Baby Point: Liberals 40.2%, NDP 33.4%, PCs 20.6%, Greens 4.1%
Runnymede-Bloor West Village:  Liberals 42.8%, NDP 36.2%, PCs 14.4%, Greens 5.5%
Junction: NDP 47.8%, Liberals 34.6%, PCs 9%, Greens 5.5%
High Park North: Liberals 41.6%, NDP 37.9%, PCs 13.5%, Greens 5.5%
High Park-Swansea: Liberals 41.1%, NDP 34.8%, PCs 17.2%, Greens 5.8%
Roncesvalles: NDP 46.2%, Liberals 36.6%, PCs 8.1%, Greens 6.9%
South Parkdale: NDP 52.3%, Liberals 32.3%, PCs 8.3%, Greens 5.3%

As expected, a pretty strong east-west split:

Ward 13:  Liberals 41.3%, NDP 36.3%, PCs 15.7%, Greens 5.2%
Ward 14:  NDP 46.5%, Liberals 33.9%, PCs 9.4%, Greens 6.1%

When it comes to "patterns", it'd be interesting to see a neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood comparison to 2011 (i.e. where whichever party gained more ground than others, etc)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Poll-by-poll maps are now available for all ridings at election-atlas.ca. Nice work as usual, 506!

http://election-atlas.ca/ont/

[adma]

Poll-by-poll maps are now available for all ridings at election-atlas.ca. Nice work as usual, 506!

http://election-atlas.ca/ont/

I hope that'll be "updated" once the official certified figures (incl. turnout, etc) are released.

[Holmes]

It's possible that Gays are attracted to the Liberals more than the NDP in general. Most tend to be wealthier than straights (no children, meaning more disposable income). Wealth+social liberalism = Liberal Party supporters.

I suspect this, at least Toronto (and Ottawa) gays. And having a Torontonian lesbian as leader of the Liberal party probably outright pushed them towards the Liberals.

[cp]

Speaking as an Ottawa gay (or, more accurately, a former member of the LGBT community in Ottawa), and as someone who's voted Liberal and NDP in Ontario before, I can say that Wynne's sexuality was a heartwarming happenstance but not a determining factor in deciding who to support.

But that's just me. Other gays may have had other reasons. We're quite a diverse bunch, you know.