Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not how ordinary voters think. That's how people who write newspaper columns think. There is a fundamental difference.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak: Jobs, jobs, jobs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Totes unbiased and 100% fair and accurate guide to the parties of Ontario: http://ippikin.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/a-notable-lack-of-common-sense/

[Hatman 🍁]

Totes unbiased and 100% fair and accurate guide to the parties of Ontario: http://ippikin.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/a-notable-lack-of-common-sense/

A delight to read!

[RogueBeaver]

Federal Tories exchanging fire with Wynne. Harper gave his Ontarians permission to campaign with Hudak last month, no idea if Mulcair and Trudeau will also jump in.

Will the leaders engage voters?

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sure Mulcair will let his MPs campaign for the provincial party. It's all the same party after all.

[RogueBeaver]

If any of the 3 leaders personally campaigns, it'll be Trudeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see Mulcair also campaigning, but definitely not Harper.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath profile.

From Kinsella: Team Dithers are using back to the future signs. More generally, no idea why Wynne hired those guys.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak interview. What to expect. Probably not deep policy dives.

[Smid]

If any of the 3 leaders personally campaigns, it'll be Trudeau.

I would think he wouldn't want to be within a bargepole of an unpopular provincial party if he could avoid it.

[Smid]

Following discussions with Earl, here is a somewhat improved Provincial Ontario election map, I've saved the new one to the Gallery, to replace the old one:



Edited to include Earl's colour scheme.

[Hatman 🍁]

First map since Smid's fix:

[Citizen Hats]

If any of the 3 leaders personally campaigns, it'll be Trudeau.

I would think he wouldn't want to be within a bargepole of an unpopular provincial party if he could avoid it.

and in the grand scheme of things, an OLP failure frees up a lot of the Liberal labour force for 2015

[Smid]

If any of the 3 leaders personally campaigns, it'll be Trudeau.

I would think he wouldn't want to be within a bargepole of an unpopular provincial party if he could avoid it.

and in the grand scheme of things, an OLP failure frees up a lot of the Liberal labour force for 2015

I'm inclined to agree with you. I think the best outcome from a federal Tory perspective could possibly be some sort of Liberal-NDP Coalition with Hudak's PCers holding the most seats in the Parliament.

[RogueBeaver]

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.

[RogueBeaver]

Today's schedule: Wynne and Hudak attend a Sikh event in TO.

[DL]

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.

As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

[RogueBeaver]

Totally agreed. The subhead says it all: "trailing but in position to win minority" with head "NDP Move Backfiring!" Shameless hackery.

Also, what does everyone think of OLP/NDP tactical positioning? Seems to be coming up often from journalists - just heard Benzie and Bliss talking about that 2 hours ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

To think, I nearly considered getting a subscription to the Star last year. What newspaper should NDPers even read?

[Citizen Hats]

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.

As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

A proportional swing only puts the Liberals four seats back

[DL]

Four seats back is very different from four seats in front!...the thing is in Ontario elections there are parts of the province where things don't change much and other parts where things are more volatile. The PCs swept rural Ontario by such wide margins last time that they probably won't gain much ground there...at the same time there PCs are so non-existent in inner city areas they probably won't do much there either. I suspect that if there is a 4 point OLP to PC swing it will be accentuated in swing ridings in suburban 905 Toronto and more muted elsewhere

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah. Bricker was just on Newstalk and talked about 905 and SW: his last poll had the Tories up 20 in 905 and 7 in SW. Question is whether Hudak can husband his lead and Wynne can consolidate progressives.

[Hatman 🍁]

The 905, as always is the only area of the province that matters.

[Krago]

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.