Ontario 2014 (June 12th)
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #100 on: May 04, 2014, 04:07:55 PM »

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.



Was the little bird Eric Grenier?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #101 on: May 04, 2014, 04:35:08 PM »

So Hudak will travel in SUVs or cars, not a bus.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #102 on: May 04, 2014, 05:19:47 PM »

A little birdie told me that the EKOS poll regions follow the area codes (416, 905, 519, etc.)

Here is a map that overlays the provincial riding boundaries on the area codes.



Was the little bird Eric Grenier?

Does Eric Grenier work for EKOS? Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #103 on: May 04, 2014, 06:59:25 PM »

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #104 on: May 04, 2014, 07:21:54 PM »

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.

Sounds fairly similar to mine.  I would regard it as strange that green would win a seat under those numbers, I just imagine that those numbers will go away. 

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #105 on: May 04, 2014, 07:24:23 PM »

I've created version 1.0 of my model, inputting the EKOS numbers (putting Northumberland in the 905 and Dufferin-Caledon in 519):

Liberal: 50
PC: 36
NDP: 20
Green: 1

Gonna make some further tweaks due to a few lol-worthy results (like the Greens winning a seat) before publishing anything. I imagine once Forum releases their cross tabs it will help with some of the strange numbers, as well as indicate a closer race.

Sounds fairly similar to mine.  I would regard it as strange that green would win a seat under those numbers, I just imagine that those numbers will go away. 



I think the only way to fix the Green number is to factor in the fact that they always over-poll, and to correct for that.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #106 on: May 04, 2014, 08:28:12 PM »

Here is my thinking so far and considering how inaccurate polls have been of recent never mind changes during elections, things could turn out differently.

416

Liberals have a solid lead here but PCs in the upper 20s and NDP in the 20s.  It should go predominately Liberal although the NDP should win some seats in the downtown core while if the Tories can move up a few percentage points they could pick up a few suburban seats, otherwise areas that went Tory federally and Rob Ford municipally.  As for riding specifics, here are one's I can see changing

If the PCs get some momentum or Liberals crater: Etobicoke Centre, York Centre, Willowdale, Scarborough-Agincourt

Likely to swing back Liberal but could stay PC: Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Vulnerable NDP ridings to Liberals: Davenport and Trinity-Spadina

Possible NDP Pick ups: York South Weston and Scarborough-Rouge River, while if things go really well, York West and Scarborough Southwest.

All ridings not mentioned should stay the same unless something dramatic happens.

905 suburbs

Most polls show the PCs slightly ahead but the 905 belt is really the key on who wins.  The Liberals need to keep the PCs to the fringe while the PCs need to move inwards towards Toronto if they want to win.

Solid PC: Durham, Whitby-Oshawa, Thornhill, and York Simcoe

Likely PC unless they screw up: Burlington, Halton, and Newmarket-Aurora

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Vaughan, Brampton West, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville.

Vulnerable Liberal ridings that could go PC: Ajax-Pickering, Richmond Hill, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, and Oakville

Likely PC but could go NDP: Oshawa

Likely NDP: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Hamilton-Niagara

Solid NDP: Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, and Welland (the PCs could be competitive here, but I would be shocked if they actually win)

Solid PC: Niagara West-Glanbrook

Likely PC but could go NDP: Niagara Falls

Liberal/PC tossup: St. Catharines

Leans Liberal but could go PC: Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale

Central Ontario

This area is solidly PC, but the definition is somewhat unclear, so I will just list the ridings below.

Solid PC: Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey, Dufferin-Caledon, and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Likely PC unless they screw-up: Barrie

Southwestern Ontario

The Liberals are in big trouble here, while the NDP was strong for a while but seems to have faded since Hudak dropped his right to work proposals.  Most polls show the PCs ahead never mind this area is fairly rural thus would naturally tilt PC although not as heavily as Central or Eastern Ontario

Solid PC: Wellington-Halton Hills, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, and Sarnia-Lambton

Solid Liberal unless they crater: Guelph and London North Centre

Solid NDP: London-Fanshawe, Windsor-Tecumseh, and Windsor West

Likely PC unless NDP gets a lot of momentum: Cambridge

PC if centre-left splits, Liberal if its united: Kitchener Centre (otherwise the non-right wing vote would have to coalesce around the Liberals)

Leans PC, but could go Liberal and possibly even NDP: Brant

NDP if Liberals collapse, PCs if split: Kitchener-Waterloo and London West (I predict the PCs will get between 35-40% in both ridings so how the other 60-65% split will determine who wins)

Leans NDP but could go PC: Essex

Northern Ontario

The Liberals are quite unpopular here so the NDP should gain while any Liberal holds will be due to popularity of the incumbent not support of the party.  The PCs will hold the two seats they hold, but highly unlikely to pick up any other.  The federal Conservatives did a bit better due to opposition of the gun registry which was widely unpopular in Northern Ontario, but this is not an issue in the provincial election, so those who normally didn't vote Tory, but did just to get the gun registry scrapped will return to traditional voting patterns.

Solid NDP: Kenora-Rainy River, Timmins-James Bay, Nickel Belt, Algoma-Manitoulin, and Timiskming Cochrane.

Leans NDP:  Sudbury

Slight edge to NDP over Liberals: Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Thunder Bay-Superior North

Solid Liberal: Sault Ste. Marie

Solid PC: Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka

Eastern Ontario

The PCs have a strong lead here, but unlike other parts of Ontario due to lack of manufacturing base, they tend to run up the margins in the rural areas more so than other parts of the province.  This is the one area where I think they could get over 60% in some ridings.  Nonetheless there are a couple of marginal Liberal ridings that could swing PC, while NDP will be lucky to win any seats

Solid PC: Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, and Prince Edward-Hastings.

Solid Liberal: Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier

Likely Liberal but could go NDP: Ottawa Centre and Kingston & the Islands

Likely PC unless they screw up: Northumberland-Quinte West

Bellwether ridings: Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberals if left unite, PC if split: Peterborough
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mileslunn
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« Reply #107 on: May 04, 2014, 08:32:56 PM »

I can see Mulcair also campaigning, but definitely not Harper.

Considering how Harper's numbers are lousy, I suspect he will stay out.  Besides a Liberal win would actually help the Tories federally in 2015 as there will be a balanced budget federally, while the deficit is growing provincially and many people on Justin Trudeau's team are from the Ontario Liberals.  By contrast Hudak will likely have to make some tough choices if elected which will be unpopular initially and likely to hurt the Tories federally at least in the swing ridings.  Lets remember Ontario, more often than not votes differently federally and provincially.  The base of each party votes the same way but the swing votes tend to go Tory one way and Liberal the other.  Now individual MPs campaigning might help in a few cases.  Even if Hudak wins a majority, I would be surprised if he wins any riding that didn't go Tory federally so in many ways the 73 seats they won federally is sort of the best case scenario for the Ontario PCs, although they can afford to miss 19 of them and still win a majority.

Considering Justin Trudeau's popularity, I am pretty sure he will campaign to some degree although I am not sure how much different it will make.

Thomas Mulcair will probably endorse Howarth but not campaign too heavily although I am sure the 22 MPs will be active.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #108 on: May 04, 2014, 08:41:41 PM »

First Forum poll: 38/33/22/6. Not that different from their last poll.



As usual their seat projection model is totally preposterous - there is no way whatsoever that the the Liberals could remain the largest party if they trail the PCs in the province wide popular vote by 5 points. I think they have a big their model that they refuse to acknowledge or fix because it is nonsensical...yet of course the Toronto Star (who's payroll ought to be classified as a Liberal party campaign expense) play up this kooky model because it fits in with their strategy.

Fully agree.  If you look at the federal results, this is pretty similar to the 2008 federal election in Ontario where it was 51 Cons, 38 Lib, and 17 NDP so while not likely to be exactly the same, it would probably be along that line.  As for big margins in rural areas, that's a bit exaggerated.  The only rural ridings I expect you will see a strong PC jump is where they unseated a Liberal cabinet minister who is not running again like Perth-Wellington and Prince Edward-Hastings.  Southwestern Ontario has a lot of blue collar towns so I suspect in the rural ridings PC support will be in the 40s or low 50s at tops which is not far off what they got federally.  Only in Eastern Ontario will they rack up big margins which they already did last time around.  Ottawa and the surrounding area is quite political and there are far fewer swing voters than other areas meaning swings tend to be smaller than province wide as well as turnout is often over 70% so its less of an issue of who does and doesn't show up.  Results federally in this area have been pretty much the same in 2006, 2008, and 2011 despite swings elsewhere.  By contrast the 905 belt tends to swing in whatever direction the province does but at a greater magnitude.  The PCs are hated in downtown Toronto so they will got in the teens or single digits here meaning few wasted votes.

As a side note, some assume the PCs will get 70% or 80% in rural Ontario, which is nonsense.  Right wing parties only get those numbers in rural areas that have very low population densities.  In Canada that would be the Prairies while US it would be the plains and Mountain West (I ignored the South as voting is very racially polarized there), while in the rural counties of the Great Lakes or Northeast, the GOP usually only gets in the 50s or 60s whose population densities are more in line with rural Ontario.  Likewise in Britain, the Conservatives seldom get above 60% and almost never over 70% and in fact in Western Europe, even in rural areas you don't see right wing parties racking up ridiculous margins like you do in the Prairies or parts of the US and rural Western Europe has similar density to rural Ontario if not slightly higher.  Otherwise a riding with a density of 50 people/square km is quite different from one at 5 people per square km.  Otherwise I could see the Liberals losing by one or two points in the popular vote and winning seat wise, but if the PCs are five points ahead, they will win the most seats.
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« Reply #109 on: May 04, 2014, 09:03:39 PM »

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #110 on: May 04, 2014, 10:13:33 PM »

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.
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Krago
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« Reply #111 on: May 04, 2014, 10:44:07 PM »

Windsor West?  Faulty Girders!

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #112 on: May 04, 2014, 11:14:11 PM »

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

I think it's a toss up at this point. Calling it solid is a little presumptive.

Also, I'm not sure about your call regarding Scarborough-Agincourt. The riding went Liberal even during the Mike Harris era, so why do you think it will go Tory now? Is the Chinese community switching to the conservatives like in BC? Do you think they may feel uncomfortable with the Liberals being led by a lesbian?

That reminds me of the OLP leadership race. Looks like Agincourt backed Sousa:



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mileslunn
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« Reply #113 on: May 05, 2014, 12:11:30 AM »

You think Windsor West is solid NDP?

Okay maybe not, but the current MPP is hardly a high profile like Sandra Paputello and they did get slaughtered in the neighbouring riding in the by-election.  My understanding why Howarth went is her caucus from Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are aware how unpopular the Liberals are in those regions so feel they have every reason to gain.  The main thing holding her back the last two times was her Toronto caucus was nervous, but I imagine she found a way to persuade them as well as of her Toronto MPPs, all of them come from ridings where the PCs are non-existent so there is no need to vote strategically.  If the PCs win any seats in the 416, it will come at the expense of the Liberals and it will be in the suburban parts where the NDP is for the most part quite weak.

I think it's a toss up at this point. Calling it solid is a little presumptive.

Also, I'm not sure about your call regarding Scarborough-Agincourt. The riding went Liberal even during the Mike Harris era, so why do you think it will go Tory now? Is the Chinese community switching to the conservatives like in BC? Do you think they may feel uncomfortable with the Liberals being led by a lesbian?

That reminds me of the OLP leadership race. Looks like Agincourt backed Sousa:





Scarborough-Agincourt is a long shot but the reason I mention it as after York Centre, it was the PCs second best showing in the 416 and they only lost by 11 points which is not an impossible gap to overcome.  Also as mentioned the Chinese generally tend to be somewhat more fiscally conservative than say the South Asian or Black community who are more left leaning thus why the Tories might struggle more with them.  In addition Jim Karygiannis as much as he was a sleazball really knew how to win amongst his constituents and had he not run I suspect the results would have been a three way race much like Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Guildwood in the last federal election.

At the same time I still think it will stay Liberal, I am only saying that if the PCs get above 30% in the 416 area code this would be one of the first to fall, but for now I call it for the Liberals.  Also as much as Hudak is like Mike Harris I don't think you can assume the results will necessarily duplicate.  Mike Harris got close to 60% in the 905 belt and even if that swings in the PC's favour, there is no way Hudak will get anywhere remotely close to what Mike Harris got in this area even in ridings like Burlington, Oakville, and Mississauga South where the demographics haven't changed much.  By contrast Mike Harris struggled in rural Southwestern Ontario which I think Hudak with the exception of Essex which is a mix of suburban and rural, Hudak has locked up. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #114 on: May 05, 2014, 07:33:31 AM »

LFP on SW.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #115 on: May 05, 2014, 07:50:12 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2014, 07:51:43 AM by RogueBeaver »

Horwath wants 5 debates. She also said in a CBC interview that Wynne wants to privatize the TTC.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #116 on: May 05, 2014, 08:38:14 AM »


The poll results are... well if true, I would be terribly excited!: NDP 46% - PC 28% - OLP 18% - Now, take with a grain of salt right since online news polls are notoriously terrible; I suspect the NDP & PCs are much closer and the OLP to be doing better but still in third.

mileslunn - As things are now; I generally agree, But candidates will play a factor as well as we see who wins nominations, they can bring a 5-10% name-swing with them. Ridings like Windsor West for the NDP (running Gretzky... a trustee), London North Centre (battle! two city Councillors NDP & PC against a high profile yet very scandal plagued cabinet minister) can add points on name alone.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #117 on: May 05, 2014, 11:31:58 AM »

Factoring in the EKOS and Forum polls, I get:

PC: 46
Lib: 43
NDP: 18
Grn: 0
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #118 on: May 05, 2014, 11:41:23 AM »

Forum, projected
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #119 on: May 05, 2014, 11:42:50 AM »

Wynne says Horwath's lying on the TTC.

Takhar, amazingly, still hasn't decided whether he's running.

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lilTommy
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« Reply #120 on: May 05, 2014, 11:49:12 AM »


... suspect; The Liberals win back Vaughan? The NDP losses Kenora-Rainy River and Timmins-James Bay? Those I doubt seriously
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #121 on: May 05, 2014, 11:51:07 AM »

It's a mechanical projection from 2011.  Also, the Tories are polling high and the NDP polling low in 'Northern Ontario' which might cause a populist vote split for the Liberals to exploit

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #122 on: May 05, 2014, 11:59:23 AM »

You do realize Forum's "Northern Ontario" includes all of the 705, right?

Oh, and the Liberals currently have Vaughan, so no surprise there.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #123 on: May 05, 2014, 12:06:54 PM »

You do realize Forum's "Northern Ontario" includes all of the 705, right?

Oh, and the Liberals currently have Vaughan, so no surprise there.

yes. I supect what's happening is that the Tories are creaming central Ontario, and doing normal in the actual North, and that's what pulls the projection this way
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #124 on: May 05, 2014, 12:36:10 PM »

Weird. My projection has the NDP with a healthy lead in Timmins, but I'm factoring in the EKOS poll which had the Liberals ahead in the 705.

Weird results I have in my projection:

Barrie going Liberal (due to EKOS poll)
Scarborough-Guildwood going PC (close by-election skewing my numbers)
Ottawa South going PC (ditto- but plausible)
Kenora-Rainy River going PC (due to EKOS's very small 807 sample)

Also, I suspect Sudbury will go NDP due to no Liberal incumbent, but my model has the Liberal ahead at this point. Once we know who the candidates are, I will have a better idea of how to tweak my model.
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