Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Sol]

Do the dippers have a chance of winning this outright? Or minority government?

[Hatman 🍁]

Do the dippers have a chance of winning this outright? Or minority government?

Unlikely given polling numbers / memories of 1990

[lilTommy]

VoteCompas is back http://www.cbc.ca/elections/ontariovotes2014/votecompass
seems odd, some Federal questions like Euthanasia were listed.

NDP - 80%
GRN - 74%
OLP - 71%
PC  - 33% (Ha! that much!)
... I'm more Economic Left & Social Liberal


Also... Can the NDP win? memories of 90, the NDP surprised most and won... anything can happen Also, anyone have polling from the 90 election?

[Hash]

Weighted / unweighted

Greenies 79% / 79%
NDP 74% / 76%
Libs 62% / 65%
Purgatories 34% / 37%

[mileslunn]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

Independent? You better hope there's going to be an independent running.

[mileslunn]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

Independent? You better hope there's going to be an independent running.

That's federally, provincially I am voting PC, but federally I will go Independent or a third party. The Libertarian party always puts up a candidate my riding so although not nearly as ideological as them, that's probably who I will go for. I am though hoping Harper resigns and then I might vote Tory. I might also just vote for whomever is the best local candidate so definitely not Liberal since it's Adam Vaughan who I cannot stand.

[Kushahontas]

NDP 74
GRN 72
LIB 70
PC 39

[Hatman 🍁]

Mine were:

PC 65
GRN 46
LIB 43
NDP 39

Although I have the Liberal colour in my name, that's because when I signed up I mostly commented on US results where I would be a Democrat. In Canada I consider myself centre-right. The Liberals under Wynne have swung so far left they are basically in the same spot as the NDP on the spectrum. I am not quite as right wing as Hudak, but I believe in balance on the spectrum so if you swing too far one you need to balance it out the other way. The reason I only got 65 PC as I agree the deficit as a major issue and requires big spending cuts, but I unlike Hudak I am opposed to tax cuts prior to balancing the budget.

Federally I wouldn't vote Conservative though not because Harper is too right wing, but he's too autocratic. I wouldn't vote Liberal either as Justin Trudeau is a complete lightweight and is only leader because of his looks and father. I will probably vote Independent next federal election.

Independent? You better hope there's going to be an independent running.

That's federally, provincially I am voting PC, but federally I will go Independent or a third party. The Libertarian party always puts up a candidate my riding so although not nearly as ideological as them, that's probably who I will go for. I am though hoping Harper resigns and then I might vote Tory. I might also just vote for whomever is the best local candidate so definitely not Liberal since it's Adam Vaughan who I cannot stand.

Cool. I always like it when people vote for small parties. Luckily the NDP is close enough to me ideologically that I haven't really considered voting for any other party. Municipally I have voted for fringe candidates though.

[Krago]

But have you ever voted for John C. Turmel?  I have.

[Hatman 🍁]

But have you ever voted for John C. Turmel?  I have.

I've had just one opportunity to do so (last August) and did not. I would've voted for him had I been old enough in the 1997 Ottawa-Carleton Regional Chair election. Alas, I was only 11.

My results:

NDP: 73
Grn: 68
Lib: 62
PC: 41

[Njall]

NDP: 72
OLP: 70
Grn: 69
PC: 47

[the506]

PC 59
Green 53
NDP 49
Liberal 47

That's what happens when your views are all over the map.

I'd probably vote Libertarian though.

[RogueBeaver]

Today's roundup.

Star says Horwath's bumbling, compares her to Ford on populism and gravy train.

[adma]

Why is the NDP all of a sudden popular in Southwestern Ontario? Outside of Windsor, it's not exactly traditional NDP territory. Perhaps it's the economy?

One factor not mentioned is that Andrea Horwath herself might come across as a favourite-daughter "heartland" leader--Hamilton as a gateway to SW Ontario more than as part of the GTA commuter belt.  (Technically, Hudak might also have claim to such command--but somehow doesn't project it.)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Is it correct to assume that although pollsters are weighting by the regions that they publish, they are not further weighting within these regions? So a southwest sample could have, say, Windsor overrepresented one time and then rural areas overrepresented the next time?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it correct to assume that although pollsters are weighting by the regions that they publish, they are not further weighting within these regions? So a southwest sample could have, say, Windsor overrepresented one time and then rural areas overrepresented the next time?

I doubt it. If there's any regional weighting, it's likely based on their reported regions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes. This is why samples are technically speaking trash and should not be taken as anything other than vaguely indicative. And frankly sometimes not even that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for your insight, Al.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you want to declare an interest?

()

[Holmes]

Bisson signs starting to appear every fifty meters in town here, already really oversaturated. PC candidate's signs are also popping up but not as much. Liberals nowhere to be found and it will stay that way most likely.

lol@ the comments on local newspaper websites. They always seem to attract the worst people, although Timmins' politics aren't that great to begin with.

[Hatman 🍁]

Signs aren't legally allowed to go up until the 12th I think, but that won't stop campaigns from putting them up this weekend. A few people have recycled signs up from the August by-election (same three candidates). Including me, but I never took mine out of my window; no one can see it here on the 15th floor, facing away from the street.

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak: 200k jobs over 4 years from eliminating restrictions on skilled trades. Other parts of the "Million Jobs Plan" are out tonight. That said, I'm very skeptical of anyone throwing out jobs numbers.

[DL]

Today's roundup.

Star says Horwath's bumbling, compares her to Ford on populism and gravy train.

Boy the Toronto Star is really in "campaign mode" now - Regg Cohn in particular doesnt even make the slightest pretence to being fair - his columns literally read like they were ghost written by the Liberal war room. This is such a total hatchet job on Andrea Horwath - big deal if she didn't have a bus for the first two of the unofficial campaign. Ontario election writs are dropped on Wednesday's and I'm sure the NDP was caught slightly off-guard by Wynne announcing the election last Friday - 5 days before it could legally start - in the overall scheme of things - so what? Then he goes on to accuse Horwath of not saying how she would pay for her promises - well fair enough but his beloved Kathleen Wynne just brought in a budget with BILLIONS of dollars worth of expensive commitments and no way to pay for any of them other than jacking up the deficit - that doesn't seem to bother him at all.

[DC Al Fine]

Today's roundup.

Star says Horwath's bumbling, compares her to Ford on populism and gravy train.

Boy the Toronto Star is really in "campaign mode" now - Regg Cohn in particular doesnt even make the slightest pretence to being fair - his columns literally read like they were ghost written by the Liberal war room. This is such a total hatchet job on Andrea Horwath - big deal if she didn't have a bus for the first two of the unofficial campaign. Ontario election writs are dropped on Wednesday's and I'm sure the NDP was caught slightly off-guard by Wynne announcing the election last Friday - 5 days before it could legally start - in the overall scheme of things - so what? Then he goes on to accuse Horwath of not saying how she would pay for her promises - well fair enough but his beloved Kathleen Wynne just brought in a budget with BILLIONS of dollars worth of expensive commitments and no way to pay for any of them other than jacking up the deficit - that doesn't seem to bother him at all.

The only thing worth reading in the Star is Chantal Hebert.