Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DL]

New Grit anti-NDP attack ad: Horwath voted against the budget. I must admit seeing Grits run to Dippers' left is rather amusing.

Political ads cannot legally be broadcast until the last two weeks of the campaign - this is just an online ad that Liberals can tweet to each other - it won't be seen by any "real people" and they likely hope that there media will do a story about it and get "earned media". This is a common ploy - create an ad and try to make a big deal about it and hope no one remarks on the fact that it isnt actually running!

[mileslunn]

New Grit anti-NDP attack ad: Horwath voted against the budget. I must admit seeing Grits run to Dippers' left is rather amusing.

I suppose they think that what appeals to downtown Toronto voters will appeal to the rest of the province?

Wynne's idea of running to the left could blow up in her face.  She's basically assuming Hudak will be so toxic to centrist voters they will hold their nose and vote Liberal.  What she is really doing is leaving the centre wide open so either those votes will go PC if they run a good campaign or if they run a lousy one, they will just stay home, which seems quite plausible.

[mileslunn]

I should also ad while I Prefer more the Bill Davis type Toryism over Harris type the reality is Davis won back then because voter turnout was around 80%, whereas today its only around 50%.  People furthest from the centre are most likely to show up so that may explain why the Liberals are swinging leftward and PCs rightward, otherwise more about appealing to the base.  I also look at the centre over a time frame so while Hudak's cuts in normal circumstances would be too extreme, the deficit is so big it requires dramatic action and we've swung too far to the left so four years of equal amount on the right would balance things out.  My main beef with Hudak is tax cuts as those should be put on hold until after the budget is balanced.  As for corporate tax cuts, I would rather do what New York State does whereby new companies in economically depressed areas get a tax holiday for the first few years to encourage start ups in areas with high unemployment rather than across the board corporate tax cuts.  If our corporate taxes were higher than most jurisdictions, I would favour cutting them, but they are not, we fall in the middle of the pack as well as anyone who has studied economics would know about the Laffer Curve whereby cutting taxes means more revenue when they are really high, but when already competitive it means less.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just so we're clear, no matter how hard Whynne tries, the Liberals will not be magically to the left of the NDP.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Not all the relevant issues here are straightforwardly to do with left or right.

[RogueBeaver]

Also: Hudak promising a 30% corporate tax reduction, down to 8.5%.

[MaxQue]

Why does Hudak wants to create mass unemployment?

[RogueBeaver]

First nutbar found: extremely sexist Grit in Nepean-Carleton.

[Holmes]

Just so we're clear, no matter how hard Whynne tries, the Liberals will not be magically to the left of the NDP.

The Liberals want to be the left-wing and right-wing alternatives to the NDP at the same time.

[RogueBeaver]

Just so we're clear, no matter how hard Whynne tries, the Liberals will not be magically to the left of the NDP.

The Liberals want to be the left-wing and right-wing alternatives to the NDP at the same time.

Liberalism in a nutshell.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Liberals are just the same as the NDP, then what's going to stop voters from leaving the Libs for the NDP en masse then? The Liberals have all the baggage associated with them. The NDP? Well, Bob Rae was a long time ago.

[Citizen Hats]

If the Liberals are just the same as the NDP, then what's going to stop voters from leaving the Libs for the NDP en masse then? The Liberals have all the baggage associated with them. The NDP? Well, Bob Rae was a long time ago.

When have the Liberals tried to be 'just the same' 

there's the whole kitchen-table thing which I think the Liberals have notably not emulated

[RogueBeaver]

I don't see any airborne pigs outside my window, yet Grit hack Regg Cohn backhandedly gives Hudak credit on something.

[DL]

This was tweeted by OFL President Sid Ryan

NDP poised to win Oshawa according to EKOS poll taken this past weekend. NDP 29 Libs. 23 PC. 20

[Holmes]

A win in Oshawa would mean at least opposition status, but I don't put much stock in a poll of that nature this far out.

[DL]

The NDP came close in Oshawa last time - so it wouldn't be that much of a shock to win it...btw the Tories have a longtime incumbent there - the NDP doesn't even pick a candidate until Monday!

[Hatman 🍁]

Sid Ryan is releasing our internal polls I see.

[DL]

Sid Ryan is releasing our internal polls I see.

Internal polls for the OFL or does he have a mole at Ekos giving him scoops on what Ekos is doing for itself?

[MaxQue]

Sid Ryan is releasing our internal polls I see.

Internal polls for the OFL or does he have a mole at Ekos giving him scoops on what Ekos is doing for itself?

I don't see why Ekos would waste money doing a poll than nobody wants to buy, unless they want to go bankrupt.

[DL]

No one pays Forum for any of their polls you see in the newspaper, they are just done as a publicity stunt.

[Hatman 🍁]

Max is right, we don't do internal polls just for our own sake and then leak them to Sid Ryan of all people!

[adma]

Somehow, second place doesn't ring true for the Grits in Oshawa.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the point where I mention that constituency polls are not to be trusted?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the point where I mention that constituency polls are not to be trusted?

No, because it was done by EKOS

[DL]

So to clarify - Ryan is leaking HIS internal polls - not Ekos's internal polls - i assume the OFL must have commissioned some polling and so the results are their property. Hopefully we will hear about other ridings...

FWIW, it seems very odd that the latest wave of province-wide polls show the PCs in the lead and running ahead of their 2011 province-wide vote share - and yet apparently in Oshawa - a seat they have held since 1995 - they are supposedly running third!