Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Holmes]

There will probably be some Tory gains in Toronto. The ones they were supposed to win in 2011 before the Rob Ford scare spooked a lot of voters to the Liberals.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I can't remember ever seeing pollsters diverge like this.

[RogueBeaver]

Closest would be BC. In 2009 Angus-Reid was the only pollster to correctly spot NDP strength. In 2013 Forum was least incorrect in catching Grit strength - barely registered for others. ON 2011 everyone caught the trends, if at varying times and speeds.

[RogueBeaver]

On another subject: daily dose of Star's Grit hackery. Also Goar being herself.

[Citizen Hats]

A note- the BC Liberals are almost never referred to as 'Grits'

[Krago]

Barring a few Facebook eruptions, the Liberal and PC slates are set, while the NDP still needs to coax three lambs to the slaughter.

The male/female breakdowns are:

Liberal: 70 men, 37 women

PC: 80 men, 27 women

NDP:  60 men, 44 women, 3 TBD


Replacing the six Liberals not running for re-election (four men, two women) are four women and two men.  The two vacant PC seats, both held by men previously, now enjoy gender parity.


Using the 2011 provincial election results (substituting by-election figures where available), I've ranked the 'next' thirty seats for each party based on the margin of loss (%).  The ten closest seats for each party are rated A ridings, 11-20 are rated B, and 21-30 are rated C.

Here are the gender breakdowns by party:

Liberal
Incumbents: 31 men, 12 women
Replacements: 2 men 4 women
A Potential:  5 men, 5 women
B Potential:  6 men, 4 women
C Potential:  6 men, 4 women
No hopers:  20 men, 8 women

PC
Incumbents: 27 men, 8 women
Replacements: 1 man 1 woman
A Potential:  9 men, 1 woman
B Potential:  7 men, 3 women
C Potential:  8 men, 2 women
No hopers:  28 men, 12 women

NDP
Incumbents: 12 men, 9 women
Replacements: 0 men, 0 women
A Potential:  5 men, 5 woman
B Potential:  3 men, 7 women
C Potential:  3 men, 7 women
No hopers:  37 men, 16 women, 3 TBD



Also, there are ten former MPPs attempting comebacks to Queen's Park, two for new parties and one for a new riding.

• Bramalea-Gore-Malton - Kuldip Kular (Lib)
• Brant - Phil Gillies (PC)
• Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Don Abel (NDP) - formerly MPP for Wentworth North (now ADFW)
• Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Rick Johnson (Lib)
• Kitchener Centre - Wayne Wettlaufer (PC)
• Niagara Falls - Bart Maves (PC)
• Northumberland-Quinte West - Lou Rinaldi (Lib)
• Ottawa West-Nepean - Alex Cullen (was Lib, now NDP)
• Parry Sound-Muskoka - Dan Waters (was NDP, now Lib)
• York South-Weston - Paul Ferreira (NDP)

[Smid]

A note- the BC Liberals are almost never referred to as 'Grits'

That's because the province resembles the federal scene, if Trudeau fails to bring the Grits out of third place. Let's face it, James Moore had a congratulatory message to the Liberal Premier on his Facebook page the other day, and Stockwell Day advocated voting for her during the election.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Grits are leaking Horwath's meal expenses to the Sun.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations close May 22 BTW

[mileslunn]

There will probably be some Tory gains in Toronto. The ones they were supposed to win in 2011 before the Rob Ford scare spooked a lot of voters to the Liberals.

Not so sure about that, I though when I drove through Etobicoke-Lakeshore all the signs I saw were Doug Holyday, but probably the Liberals still haven't made them yet.  From past elections both federal and provincial, usually the Tories best riding in the 416 closely matches the provincewide average so if they win a majority, then yes they will win seats in the 416, but if not a majority then probably not.

Anyways I will be not commenting on these again until June 8th as I will be overseas for the provincial election so will miss out on a lot but still occasionally check the updates.  I've anyways pretty much decided how I will vote and if something dramatic happens I am sure I will find out when I get back.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another constituency poll (Don Valley West): http://oraclepoll.com/uploads/Don_Valley_West_Report_.pdf

Lib: 57.1 (Kathleen Wynne)
PC: 35.1
NDP: 5.2
Grn: 2.6

[RogueBeaver]

Star looks at Brampton-Springdale.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath calls for an economic debate, while she and Wynne have confirmed their interest in a northern debate. Hudak's hasn't confirmed on either.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Star looks at Brampton-Springdale.

Is the NDP actually competitive in Brampton-Springdale, as the article suggests? I can believe it, given their advances in the riding to the east, but on the other hand, I can also see some reporter just giving equal space to all three candidates without much local knowledge. This is the sort of thing that would not be picked up by regional polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sneak peak at my next projection numbers (I hope to have something up tomorrow):

Lib: 52
PC: 37
NDP: 18

Star looks at Brampton-Springdale.

Is the NDP actually competitive in Brampton-Springdale, as the article suggests? I can believe it, given their advances in the riding to the east, but on the other hand, I can also see some reporter just giving equal space to all three candidates without much local knowledge. This is the sort of thing that would not be picked up by regional polling.

I looked into this earlier, and demographically the riding is slightly less NDP friendly than Bramalea-Gore-Malton, meaning the NDP could get up to ~30%.

[RogueBeaver]

Itineraries.

Wynne's Walkerton visit: risky attempt at definition.

Fertility treatment policies.

[DL]

Another constituency poll (Don Valley West): http://oraclepoll.com/uploads/Don_Valley_West_Report_.pdf

Lib: 57.1 (Kathleen Wynne)
PC: 35.1
NDP: 5.2
Grn: 2.6

FWIW, I think that these riding polls are often a good way to see if the trends being shown at the province-wide level in some polls are being born out at the local level. For example, if Ipsos was right and the PCs were 9 points ahead of the OLP and almost tied in the City of Toronto - i would expect to see a much narrower gap in Don Valley West than this. In 2011 Wynne took 58% in her riding and this poll has her at 57% - that does NOT suggest to me that there is any serious erosion in Liberal support in a Toronto riding.

[RogueBeaver]

Riding poll, and from a firm no one's ever heard of.

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding poll, and from a firm no one's ever heard of.

Oracle did some riding polls in the last federal election.


Anyways, here's my projection (finally!): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/05/2014-ontario-election-projection-week-3.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Another constituency poll (Don Valley West): http://oraclepoll.com/uploads/Don_Valley_West_Report_.pdf

Lib: 57.1 (Kathleen Wynne)
PC: 35.1
NDP: 5.2
Grn: 2.6

FWIW, I think that these riding polls are often a good way to see if the trends being shown at the province-wide level in some polls are being born out at the local level. For example, if Ipsos was right and the PCs were 9 points ahead of the OLP and almost tied in the City of Toronto - i would expect to see a much narrower gap in Don Valley West than this. In 2011 Wynne took 58% in her riding and this poll has her at 57% - that does NOT suggest to me that there is any serious erosion in Liberal support in a Toronto riding.

Perhaps good news for the NDP, as it may be an indication that their Toronto vote erosion may be happening in safe Liberal seats more than in their downtown-held seats.

[DL]

The NDP vote in Don Valley West wasn't much higher in 2011 - i think they only got 8%

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote in Don Valley West wasn't much higher in 2011 - i think they only got 8%

Right,  but that's a huge drop in terms of the ratio. Similar ratio decreases in similar ridings like St. Paul's and Toronto Centre (north of Bloor) could mean the NDP vote on the lakefront is holding steady.

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus just out: 36/33/25 PC (LV).

[DL]

Here is the link to the full Abacus results - lots of juicy stuff to chew on!

Eligible voters:

OLP 33/PC 33/NDP 26/Green and other 8

http://abacusinsider.com/ontario-election-2/liberals-pcs-tied-33/

[RogueBeaver]

Fairly stark methodological divide.