Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP slide in Toronto continues, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/2014-ontario-election-projection-june-5.html

[Hatman 🍁]

The way I see it, the Liberals have an easy shot at a majority. If we assume they win the 49 seats they have now, they need to win just 5 of the following targets:

- Beaches—East York 
- Davenport
- Parkdale—High Park
- Trinity—Spadina
- Kitchener—Waterloo
- Kitchener—Conestoga
- Newmarket—Aurora
- Northumberland—Quinte West
- Thornhill
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore
- Halton
- Bramalea—Gore—Malton

Of course, they could be losing in Sudbury, so you'll need to find six on that list.

For the Tories, they'd have to win the 37 seats they currently hold plus all of the following:

Ottawa—Orleans
Ottawa West—Nepean
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
York Centre
Brampton—Springdale
Oakville
Peterborough
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Niagara Falls
St. Catharines
Brant
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener—Waterloo
Essex
London West
Oak Ridges—Markham
Ajax—Pickering

Some of those ridings just aren't going to happen for them.

And for the NDP, I think their maximum is 31 seats, which as well all know, they're not going to get even close to. But if they win all the seats they have now (21), they could add any of the following:

- Sudbury
- Thunder Bay—Atikokan
- Thunder Bay—Superior North
- Ottawa Centre
- Kingston and the Islands
- Oshawa
- Brampton—Springdale
- York South—Weston
- Scarborough—Rouge River
- Windsor West

Most of those aren't going to happen either.

For the Greens, their only possibility is Guelph.

[RogueBeaver]

RCMP interviewed McGuinty in April, Citizen found out today. Shades of income trusts, though it won't move the needle.

[Hatman 🍁]

My colleagues are up early today, releasing our daily tracking numbers. And it's a shocker!

EKOS

PC: 34.9 (+4.0)
Lib: 33.9 (-1.8 )
NDP: 20.5 (+0.7)
Grn: 8.4 (-1.2)
Oth: 2.3 (-1.7)

[RogueBeaver]

Wonder if that continues. Maybe Ipsos ain't an outlier after all...

[DC Al Fine]

I still maintain my day one prediction: Tories win PV but lose on seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

However, the Liberals are up in the 905, which has tipped a handful of seats in their favour. Most of the Tory gains are in areas where they don't have anywhere to gain in terms of seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Graves says the Grit 905 lead has shrunk in his writeup, though they're still up 7.

[Hatman 🍁]

Graves says the Grit 905 lead has shrunk in his writeup, though they're still up 7.

What are you talking about, the Liberals were up four yesterday: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/modest-listing-in-wynnes-ship-seems-to-have-corrected/

How is going from being up 4 to being up 7 a shrink?

New projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/2014-ontario-election-projection-june-6.html

[RogueBeaver]

Oops. Confused GTA w/905, as I did on Twitter.

[Hatman 🍁]

A small Liberal gain in the 905 means a gain of more seats than a larger loss in the 416 means a loss.

At this point, it's unlikely the Tories will win any seats in Toronto. 

[RogueBeaver]

Globe endorses a Tory minority.

Ipsos out: PC lead LV 40 (-1), OLP 32 (+3), NDP 23 (-2). At this rate looks like a Grit government.

[DC Al Fine]

On the lighter side, the Greens are within 5pts of the Tories in Dufferin-Caledon under Grenier's model. (And only 2pts in Earl's model).

[Hatman 🍁]

On the lighter side, the Greens are within 5pts of the Tories in Dufferin-Caledon under Grenier's model. (And only 2pts in Earl's model).

Yeah, this will be corrected when I develop my projected turnout model.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos:
PC: 35 (-1)
Lib: 35 (+1)
NDP: 26 (+3)
Other: 4 (-3)

[RogueBeaver]

LV is 40 (-1), 32 (+3), 23 (-2) PC. So if they're right, less Hudak bleeding than strategic voting. Meanwhile EKOS shows the opposite trend. FWIW John Wright predicted a PC win on Twitter, said next week will determine minority or majority.

My own guess is a Grit government, as I said earlier. Or if Ipsos LV is right, perhaps a squeaker Tory minority like Harper '06.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm still confident the Liberals will win. Only question is majority or minority.

[RogueBeaver]

Another Alberta. Sigh.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Alberta. Sigh.

Alberta and BC saw unpopular centrist governments surprisingly re-elected. What are the Ontario Liberals if not an unpopular centrist government?

[DL]

Im not sure anyone would call the BC Liberals "centrist" they are a very rightwing party that is the BC equivalent of the Ontario PCs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Im not sure anyone would call the BC Liberals "centrist" they are a very rightwing party that is the BC equivalent of the Ontario PCs.

They are a big tent party, with a federal Liberal leader, who are seen as being more moderate than the NDP. It's all about perception anyways. BC voters didn't like the Liberals, but didn't want to risk voting NDP. In Alberta, voters didn't like the Tories, but didn't want to risk voting for the WRP. In Ontario, it's the PCs they don't want to vote for. Voters will hold their nose and vote Liberal.

I guess the big difference is the Liberals in BC and the Tories in Alberta are both centre-right. While the OLP has been centre right in the past, they've moved to the centre-left, at least under Wynne.

Once the Liberals win, Hudak will be shown the door. The Tories would be best to find someone more moderate, who isn't named John Tory. There is a huge gap in the centre just asking to be filled, and while Andrea is trying to fill it with rhetoric, it's not working that well, plus the NDP is still to the left of the Liberals, no matter what the Toronto Star says.

[Krago]

LV is 40 (-1), 32 (+3), 23 (-2) PC. So if they're right, less Hudak bleeding than strategic voting. Meanwhile EKOS shows the opposite trend. FWIW John Wright predicted a PC win on Twitter, said next week will determine minority or majority.

My own guess is a Grit government, as I said earlier. Or if Ipsos LV is right, perhaps a squeaker Tory minority like Harper '06.

Harper won in 2006 by 6% in the popular vote and 21 seats.  Hardly a squeaker.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum: 39 OLP PC 37 NDP 17.

[adma]

Another thing which *could* wind up shifting things in the Liberals' favour: Donatogate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/06/05/kathleen-wynne-cartoon-toronto-sun_n_5454325.html