Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ah, a paper who gets to make endorsements in two different provinces.

Kind of a funny endorsement considering the paper's name, but not considering the paper's history.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa Citizen endorses Hudak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/2014-ontario-election-projection-june-9.html

[Krago]

Check out the regional cross-tabs on the new Oracle poll:

http://huffstrategy.com/MediaManager/release/OraclePoll-Research-Inc-Environmental-Communication-Options/9-6-14/New-Poll---Tight-Ontario-election-race-with-obvious-regional-vote/2982.html

Truly bizarre.

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus LV: 34/34/26. OLP -3, PC -1, NDP +4. This is their final poll. Ipsos is out Wednesday. No idea if Forum does a final one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obviously Forum will do a final one.

You'd think by now the polls would balance out, but nope.

[King of Kensington]

My very partisan NDP friends like the Abacus poll!  I'm skeptical.

My prediction right now is 45 Liberals, 41 PCs and 21 NDP. 

[DL]

My very partisan NDP friends like the Abacus poll!  I'm skeptical.

My prediction right now is 45 Liberals, 41 PCs and 21 NDP. 

I could live with that...This election campaign is a true emotional roller coaster for me...

[adma]

My very partisan NDP friends like the Abacus poll!  I'm skeptical.

It almost suggests an CAQ-style surprise end run (though there's no obvious PQ-type force to suffer for it)

[edit: I originally said ADQ, I meant CAQ]

[MaxQue]

I suppose the safe bet is "no majority, hung assembly"?

[Krago]

Has anyone found the regional breakdown for yesterday's Forum poll?

I believe this is it: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282014.06.05%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

It looks like it has disappeared.  Did anyone save the regional breakdowns?

[RogueBeaver]

Both parties think they can win, neither has a bead on the GTA.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone found the regional breakdown for yesterday's Forum poll?

I believe this is it: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282014.06.05%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

It looks like it has disappeared.  Did anyone save the regional breakdowns?

I surprised Mr. Grenier didn't post them. I have them still, though.

[Krago]

What I find strange about the EKOS likely voter model is that it gives Liberal supporters an extra boost (anger gets you half a point, hope and happiness each get you half a point); and there's a chance you could have already voted in the advance poll and still not be considered a likely voter.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/modest-listing-in-wynnes-ship-seems-to-have-corrected/

EKOS listened to me and changed their likely voter model to remove 'happys'.  I think they should have removed 'hopefuls' instead, since 'happy' is the stronger emotion, but I don't think they wanted to show the Tories in the lead.  To admit such a big mistake two days before the election would be a hit to their credibility.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/dead-heat-persists-as-we-move-to-home-stretch/

It now shows a drop in Liberal support and a rise in the NDP.  Coupled with yesterday's Abacus and Oracle polls, Liberals who worship at the altar of 308.com may be in for a bit of a jolt today.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP at 22% in Toronto? Alright!

Krago, here are the regional breakdowns of the Forum poll:

Toronto (sample: 171)
Lib 46
PC 34
NDP 15
Grn 5
Oth 0

905 (265)
Lib 39
PC 36
NDP 21
Grn 4
Oth 1

SW (205)
Lib 34
PC 36
NDP 20
Grn 7
Oth 3

East (136)
PC 49 
Lib 34
NDP 13
Grn 3
Oth 2

"North" (197)
Lib 42
PC 32
NDP 15
Grn 11
Oth 1

[Krago]

Hatman, you're a sweetheart.

Now, just go tell your bosses to replace 'Hopeful' with 'Happy' in their likely voter model and everything will be just swell.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, you're a sweetheart.

Now, just go tell your bosses to replace 'Hopeful' with 'Happy' in their likely voter model and everything will be just swell.

I'm not getting involved in that discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Forum: 42/35/17 Grit.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is at 19%, RB

[Hatman 🍁]

Before Forum decides to take down their PDF, here are the regionals:

East (108 responses)
Lib: 42
PC: 40
NDP 12
Grn: 3
Other: 2



Toronto (132)
Liberal: 54
PC: 28
NDP: 15
Grn: 2
Oth: 1

905 (217)
Liberal: 41
PC: 38
NDP: 20
Grn: 0
Oth: 0

....getting closer

SW (162)
PC: 40
Liberals: 30
NDP: 22
Grn: 1
Oth: 1

North (97)
Liberal: 39
PC: 28
NDP: 21
Green: 11
Other: 1

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS has 41/33 OLP.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS has 41/33 OLP.

You're not even going to report NDP numbers now?

EKOS has the NDP at 21.5%.

[lilTommy]

EKOS has 41/33 OLP.

You're not even going to report NDP numbers now?

EKOS has the NDP at 21.5%.

thank you link? any regional's?

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS has 41/33 OLP.

You're not even going to report NDP numbers now?

EKOS has the NDP at 21.5%.

thank you link? any regional's?

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/06/11/wynnes-liberals-take-lead-in-sprint-to-finish/


That looks like a majority, or pretty darn close. Liberals back even with the PCs in Eastern Ontario + Lead in the 905 means many of the toss up seats have gone to them.

[lilTommy]

Since we've posted endorsements; Sudbury Star, guessing one of if not the biggest Northern paper... endorses the NDP, actually a lot of info on the NDP's northern plans are mentioned, things that haven't really been talked about down south (they all sound so tepid!)

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2014/06/10/editorial-the-ndp---for-now