Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay!

[DL]

EKOS has 41/33 OLP.

You're not even going to report NDP numbers now?

EKOS has the NDP at 21.5%.

EKOS is based on a three day roll with the weekend (ie: Sat+Sun) treated as one day...so I note that when they reported on Saturday morning based on data collected June 4-6 (wed-Fri) they had the NDP at 20.5%. then on Sunday night they reported results based on June 6-8 (Fri-Sun) and the NDP dropped three points to 17.6...now they have NDP support at 21.5 based on data collected June 8-10) but I have to think that they must have had a very bad NDP day or two over the weekend for the NDP level to go 20.5 to 17.5 and then back to 21.5 this morning. It will be interesting to see the final EKOS poll late tonight that will be all Monday-Wednesday and will drop the weekend data (which Frank Graves notes is often "wonky")

[Phony Moderate]

Forum showing gigantic gender gaps. PC on 25 among women, 46 among men. Hudak approval 20/71 among women, 40/49 among men.

[DL]

Angus Reid has finally weighed in on this election:

Decided voters:

OLP - 36%
PC - 32%
NDP - 26%

Likely voters:

PC - 36%
OLP - 34%
NDP - 24%

http://www.angusreidglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/ARG-Ontario-Voter-Intention-June-2014.pdf

[DC Al Fine]

So.... seat predictions?

[DL]

Ipsos has the NDP surging to 30% among both decided and likely voters!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6532

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 36 (-4) PC, 30 (-2), OLP, NDP 30 (+4) LV. John Wright said he expects a PC minority. Talk about a photo finish. Reminds me of 2007 here.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Ipsos has the NDP surging to 30% among both decided and likely voters!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6532

Could this be a 1990 repeat brewing in the final hours?

[mileslunn]

So.... seat predictions?

Mine are as follows.

Lib 47
PC 40
NDP 20

Popular vote

Lib 38%
PC 37%
NDP 21%

Since most seats won't change here are the one's I see flipping.

Liberals pick-up Davenport, Trinity-Spadina, and Etobicoke-Lakeshore
PCs pick up Brant, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
NDP pick up Windsor West and Sudbury.

Hudak resigns on or shortly after election night, Howarth stays on but faces pressure by some in caucus to resign.  And I say this as someone who plans to vote PC albeit reluctantly.  This is an election Hudak should have easily win, but due to some stupid moves at the beginning it appears he blew it or even if he does win it will be a very underwhelming one.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Ipsos

[Hatman 🍁]

so, the NDP is tied for 2nd, yet are third in Northern Ontario? Ya, OK...

[Hatman 🍁]

And the NDP is winning in Toronto?

hahahaha...

[RogueBeaver]

Someone will have a lot of crow to eat tomorrow. But the Ipsos reminds me of '07 here... maybe Ontarians' turn. FTR, I'm still thinking a Grit win.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had been leaning towards a Liberal majority, but now I'm not so sure.

[RogueBeaver]

FWIW, Leger has 37/37/20.

[King of Kensington]

FWIW, Forum came closest to calling it last time.

I'm going to stick with my prediction of 45 seats for the Liberals, 41 for the Tories and 21 for the NDP.  My guess is as good as anyone else's.

[Krago]

Is there another EKOS Poll coming out tonight?  Or will it be released tomorrow morning?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Will crappy weather in Southern and Eastern Ontario have any bearing on things?

[Krago]

The final EKOS poll is out: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/an-overview-of-the-campaign-and-a-reasoned-guess-at-the-outcome/

Lib 37.3 / PC 31.3 / NDP 19.2 / Green 8.2 / Others 3.9

[King of Kensington]

Will crappy weather in Southern and Eastern Ontario have any bearing on things?

It may very well.  It wouldn't surprise me if turnout is under 50%.

[Hatman 🍁]

OH NOES IT'S RAINING, IF I TRY TO VOTE I WILL MELT.

Come on, now.

[Zanas]

Once and for all : weather, good or bad, except cataclysmically bad, doesn't have any bearing on turnout, except perhaps very very marginally at plus or minus 1 pt maximum.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's forecast in pivotal swing regions!

Red = "Rainfall Warning", which sounds less ominous than google's is making it seem with it warning us by writing it out in bright vermillion letters.


Ottawa: rainy all day, high of 20. Chance of Thunderstorms.
Cobourg (Northumberland County): rainy, chance of thunderstorms, high of 20.
Toronto: chance of rain and thunderstorms, high of 23.
Newmarket: Same as Toronto...
Burlington: Same as Toronto...
Kitchener: Chance of rain, thunderstorms, high of 18
London: Same as Kitchener

Looks like we have all the sh*tty weather.

[the506]

I'm thinking 51-39-17.

[Krago]

Here's my prediction:  Lib 49 / PC 39 / NDP 19


For help with your prediction:

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/ontario-seat-projections/#

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/06/final-ontario-projection-likely-liberal.html

http://blogues.journaldemontreal.com/tooclosetocall/

http://www.lispop.ca/Ontarioseatprojection.html

http://www.electionprediction.org/2013_on/index.php

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/64/liberals-to-form-government-in-ontario/

http://www.truenorthtimes.ca/2014/06/12/ontario-election-projections-final/

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/06/teddy-predicts-liberal-victory.html


Did I forget anybody?